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Brief Analysis
A Russian Win in Ukraine Would Be a U.S. Loss in the Middle East
With preparatory peace talks in full swing and the war set to enter its fourth year, Washington must take a pragmatic approach to enlisting Arab help and ensuring that the outcome does not empower Moscow and Iran.
۱۸ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
When the Riviera Meets the Sumud: Why Palestinian Realities Don’t Mesh with Trump’s Gaza Plan
Trump’s vision to transform Gaza is based on economic and utilitarian considerations, but it fails to take into account the Palestinian connection to the land, which remains a central component of Palestinian national identity.
۱۸ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
Neomi Neumann
Articles & Testimony
Models for Transitional Justice in Syria
Post-regime experiences in Iraq, Tunisia, and Libya can help officials avoid the same mistakes in Syria, from over-empowering unaccountable armed groups to delaying judicial reform and economic improvements.
۱۸ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
Mieczyslaw Boduszynski
Sabina Henneberg
Video
Brief Analysis
Next Steps in Lebanon: From Ceasefire Extensions to Government Formation
Former military officials and experts from Lebanon and Israel discuss how Beirut’s unsettled political dynamics might affect ongoing implementation of the ceasefire and future peacebuilding efforts.
۱۴ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
Fadi Daoud
Makram Rabah
Efraim Defrin
Assaf Orion
Video
Articles & Testimony
The Syria Breakdown, Episode Five: After Assad, Navigating Syria Policy
Watch congressional testimony by two Institute scholars focusing on U.S. policy options in the face of Syria's evolving reality.
۱۳ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
Michael Singh
Dana Stroul
◆
The Syria Breakdown
Articles & Testimony
After Assad: Navigating Syria Policy (Part 2)
The Institute’s director of research testified before a Senate panel on U.S. policy post-Assad, explaining how Washington has another chance for impactful bipartisan action five years after the Syria Study Group.
۱۳ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
Dana Stroul
Articles & Testimony
After Assad: Navigating Syria Policy (Part 1)
The Institute’s managing director testified before a Senate panel on U.S. policy post-Assad, explaining how patience, pragmatism, and a willingness to lead can help Washington avoid its past vacillation between excessive intervention and exasperated neglect in the Middle East.
۱۳ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
The Status of Syria’s Transition After Two Months
While the new government’s relative stability is a success, more details are needed on developing and implementing a national dialogue, a new constitution, and inclusivity measures.
۱۲ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Lebanon’s New Government May Walk a Thin Line Between Promises and Compromises
The new cabinet appointments appeared to sideline Hezbollah’s camp, but the group retained control over the crucial Finance Ministry and may find other ways of interfering with security decisions, the reconstruction process, and the next elections.
۱۲ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
The Paris Conference on Syria: Coordination and a Roadmap Are Needed
To set up a future where U.S. forces and constant U.S. attention are no longer needed in Syria, Washington must be involved now, and smart transatlantic engagement could facilitate this goal.
۱۱ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
Devorah Margolin
Souhire Medini
Brief Analysis
Trump Gives a Green Light to Resume Fighting in Gaza—But Does Netanyahu Want to Do It Now?
A hostage ultimatum from Washington seemed to provide Netanyahu with the freedom of action he wanted, but Israeli domestic realities may not allow him to break the ceasefire just yet.
۱۱ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
David Makovsky
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Fatemiyoun/Zainabiyoun Influx: Iraq’s Intensified Hosting of Two U.S.-Designated Terrorist Groups
New data shows that Iran-backed Afghan and Pakistani terrorists are arriving at a broadening range of Iraqi military bases.
۱۱ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
Hassan al-Araji
Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Sary Mumayiz
◆
Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
Ukraine Can Help Dismantle Russia’s Influence in the Middle East
With strategic Western support on grain deliveries, embassy staffing, counter-messaging, and other initiatives, Ukraine can contribute much to rolling back Moscow’s malign influence in the region.
۱۱ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
King Abdullah Must Show Trump Practical Arab Ideas for Gaza
Although the president should avoid cornering such an important ally on an issue as risky as Palestinian relocation, the king will need to present his own concrete ideas about postwar Gaza in order to avoid a confrontation with Washington.
۱۰ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
Ghaith al-Omari
Brief Analysis
How Trump, Arab Leaders, and Israel Can Close the Gaps on Gaza
Despite its risks for regional stability and U.S. policy, the president’s Gaza proposal has put this issue at the top of the priority list.
۷ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
Dennis Ross
Dana Stroul
Articles & Testimony
Tunisia Shows How Europe’s Approach to Migration Is Untenable
To stem the growing threat of instability, European governments must develop a strategy to humanely address the migration crisis, both by reexamining their own policies and by pressing Tunisia to create a path for regularization of incoming sub-Saharan Africans.
۷ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
Sarah Yerkes
Sabina Henneberg
Articles & Testimony
Criticizing Trump Isn’t Enough. Arab Leaders Need a Counterproposal
Moving forward with an alternative Gaza plan may not be the president’s first choice, but he could at least take credit for getting Arab states to take action.
۶ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
Dennis Ross
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Sudani Brings Advisors to London Who Support Terrorism and Call for Attacks on U.S.-Led Coalition Forces
Figures linked to Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib Hezbollah were among the Iraqi prime minister's recent UK delegation.
۶ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
Ameer al-Kaabi
◆
Militia Spotlight
Video
Articles & Testimony
The Syria Breakdown, Episode Four: Revolutionary Rebuilding and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
What are the risks and potential rewards for Washington and its partners working with the new government of Syria, which is led by members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)?
۶ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
Aaron Y. Zelin
In-Depth Reports
Building on Momentum in U.S.-Turkey Relations
The two leaders can use their personal rapport to solve bilateral and regional problems, but they will also face tough challenges in matters such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and dealings with China.
۵ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
Soner Cagaptay
◆
Transition Notes 2025
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