All Policy Analysis by Fabrice Balanche

Moscow and Iran are already several steps ahead of Washington in shaping the war's potential endgame, so the next administration will need to be mindful of Putin's likeliest strategies and strongest levers if it wants a different outcome.

As the Kurds continue to pursue their goal of a contiguous territory in northern Syria, various nonmilitary factors will determine whether their nascent statelet is viable in the long term, including a host of demographic, economic, water, and oil issues.

Anti-Assad forces can relish a victory, but their stated aspiration to hold the entire city should be taken with a grain of salt.

Without a real military threat to the capital, neither the Syrian leader nor Iran will accept a political transition, even if Russia agrees to one.

By allying with the Syrian regime, the YPG implicitly signaled to the U.S. government that the Kurdish group will act based on its own interests.

Using both carrots and sticks, Israel has so far managed to prevent attacks against the Golan, but the danger is growing as jihadist movements increase their presence in southwestern Syria amid setbacks on other fronts.

Helping Russia target the jihadist group will only benefit the Assad regime unless Washington ensures that such efforts are carefully targeted, strictly conditioned, and accompanied by additional reinforcement of the moderate opposition.

The tribes in eastern Syria have been driven in different directions by the Assad regime, outside actors, and their own self-interest, leaving the coalition with a complex web to untangle before it can fully uproot IS.

Regardless of who drives the Islamic State out of the Euphrates Valley agricultural zone, they will need to address the legacy of failed regime irrigation policies that are once again creating tension among local tribes.

The group's choice of targets is a clear sign of its intention to inflame Sunni/Alawite tensions, raise the price of Moscow's intervention, and assert its symbolic leadership over the rebellion.

If European countries keep dodging difficult questions about Islamism for the sake of political expediency, international jihadists will continue to emerge from within.

The survival of the regime enclave in Deir al-Zour is fundamental to the anti-IS fight, so Washington and Moscow's allies on the ground may need to race to its rescue sooner rather than later.

Aside from President Obama, none of the main players in Syria has an interest in rushing toward Raqqa, so they will likely focus on exploiting the various campaigns around Aleppo instead.

Despite talk of a negotiated transition or a national unity government, Syria's Bashar al-Assad intends to stay. And while Western powers maneuver for diplomatic high ground in Geneva, Russia continues to push its on-the-ground military advantage on Assad's behalf.

Strong ground support for moderate rebels would be needed to keep any buffer zone in the northwest from falling under the control of al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate.