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All Policy Analysis by Patrick Clawson
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Brief Analysis
How Iraqis View U.S. Role Is Key to Evaluating Progress in Iraq
Reports about U.S. casualties inevitably take top billing in media coverage of postwar Iraq. Yet, assessing how Iraqis themselves view the current situation is, arguably, just as important for evaluating progress in Iraq. Two recent public opinion polls have provided systematic data about Iraqi views, and this data in turn
Sep 29, 2003
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
Evaluating the Options Regarding the Iranian Nuclear Threat
Testimony before the U.S.-Israel Joint Parliamentary Committee The United States has for years judged Iran to be the world's foremost state-sponsor of terrorism. While the most direct way to sever the link between Tehran and its main terror arm -- Hizbollah -- is via Damascus, Washington is vigilant about Iran's
Sep 17, 2003
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Gaining Support for Action on Iran's Nuclear Program
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose report about Iran leaked out yesterday, will soon have to decide whether to declare Iran noncompliant with its obligations under the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). What the world does about Iran's nuclear program will largely determine the future of
Aug 27, 2003
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Reading the Popular Mood in Iran
July 9 is the fourth anniversary of the student-sparked mass protests that erupted in Iran in 1999. New protests this July could test Washington no less than Tehran. Will the U.S. government side openly and publicly with the freedom-minded students against not only the unelected hardliners, but also the ineffectual
Jul 7, 2003
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran:
Demonstrations, Despair, and Danger
In the early morning hours of June 11, according to Reuters, 3,000 demonstrators near Tehran University shouted, "Political prisoners must be freed!" This incident comes shortly after the issuance of two letters sharply attacking the present system -- one signed by more than one-third of the Majlis and one by
Jun 11, 2003
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
A Terrorist U.S. Ally?
One of the stranger news items coming out of Iraq these days concerns an Iranian opposition group called the Mujahedeen-e Khalq (MEK). It's a U.S. government-designated terrorist organization that coalition forces first bombed from the air, then signed a cease-fire agreement with -- and finally disarmed and protected. Say that
May 20, 2003
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Patrick Clawson
In-Depth Reports
Defining the Postwar Priorities in the Middle East
Peter David: Robert Satloff said he wanted a British ally to be present at this meeting. So in one sense, I owe my presence here to the work of the Seventh Armored Brigade, the British unit that captured Basra. The way the brigade captured Basra was quite unusual. They approached
Apr 14, 2003
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Patrick Clawson
David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
First Steps to Remake Iraq
What to do in Iraq postwar could easily become the next crisis within the Western alliance. Canada has the credibility as a close friend of the United States, a strong supporter of international institutions, and an experienced peacekeeper to play an important role in urging all sides to make the
Apr 8, 2003
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
A View From Tehran:
War and the Challenges in the Post-Saddam Middle East
RAY TAKEYH Iran is facing its most acute crisis since the 1979 revolution. Over the past six years, political institutions have played a key role in opening the path to reform. Yet, the success of President Muhammad Khatami's efforts to involve the Iranian people in electoral processes and political institutions
Apr 7, 2003
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Ray Takeyh
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The State Department's 'No Dominoes' Report and Prospects for Democratization in a Post-Saddam Middle East
According to a classified report drafted by the State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) and leaked to the Los Angeles Times on March 14, overthrowing Saddam Husayn will not lead to a wave of successful democratic revolutions against Middle Eastern autocracies. Numerous press accounts describe the report --
Mar 17, 2003
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iraq Crisis after the Blix Report:
Diplomatic and Military Options
On January 27, Hans Blix, director of the UN Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), delivered a straightforward report to the Security Council regarding Iraqi compliance with arms resolutions. Twelve years after taking up the obligation to disarm under UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 687, Baghdad still does not genuinely
Jan 31, 2003
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Patrick Clawson
Philip Gordon
Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
Tighten the Finger on the Trigger
Whenever he's been cornered over the last decade, Saddam Hussein has demonstrated his skill under pressure at stalling, dividing and diverting the West by appearing to cooperate. His strategy has been one of token progress cloaking substantial delays. "Time is working for us," he said in a rare interview last
Dec 5, 2002
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Shaping a New UN Draft Resolution on Iraq
The United States and Britain are consulting with the other three permanent members of the UN Security Council (Russia, France, and China) before introducing a new draft resolution on Iraq. Much attention has been given to whether the resolution will explicitly authorize the use of force. At least as important
Sep 27, 2002
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Turkish Election Preview:
Fragmentation of the Center
The people of Turkey go to the polls on November 3, 2002, amid a great deal of political and economic uncertainty. Possible outcomes range from a coherent pro-European Union (EU) coalition to a dramatic change following an outright electoral victory by a party attractive to Islamist voters. In Turkey, the
Sep 18, 2002
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
WMD Inspections in Iraq:
A Trap or an Opportunity?
President George W. Bush's speech to the UN General Assembly on September 12 is expected to lay out U.S. policy on Iraq. There are strong arguments against raising the issue of arms inspections at all during this speech, and even stronger arguments for proposing a specific deadline for resuming inspections
Sep 9, 2002
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Patrick Clawson
In-Depth Reports
How to Build a New Iraq after Saddam
INTRODUCTION Whether changing the regime in Baghdad is a worthwhile U.S. policy depends in no small part on defining the shape that Iraq would most likely assume following Saddam Husayn's removal. Among other central objectives, any strategy for regime change should include the long-term goal of creating a stable and
Sep 1, 2002
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
The Palestinians' Lost Marshall Plans
The report released this week by the US Agency for International Development on malnutrition in the Palestinian territories signals how deep the humanitarian and economic crisis has become. It is heartening to see the growing concern about how to alleviate the suffering of Palestinians and at the same time give
Aug 9, 2002
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran's Reaction to New Bush Policy Shows America-Bashing Is Out of Style
Iran's democratic movement has had a busy few weeks. Today, the usually weak-kneed President Muhammad Khatami spoke out about the importance of democracy and warned hardliners against their crackdown on reformers: "No problem will be solved through the superficial elimination of a group. . . . [S]uch tendencies would go
Aug 7, 2002
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran's Place in the Axis:
Signs of Movement?
Near the end of the Clinton administration, some analysts expressed a degree of hope that Iran's reform movement would inject some measure of pragmatism into Iranian foreign policy. That hope seems to have faded. The Bush administration has established terrorism and proliferation -- two areas in which Iran has been
May 17, 2002
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Ray Takeyh
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Crawford Summit:
High Noon for U.S.-Saudi Relations?
After declining at least two earlier invitations since January 2001, Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is due to meet President George W. Bush for the first time this Thursday. The de facto leader of America's leading oil supplier (his elder half-brother, King Fahd, is ailing) had previously snubbed Washington's
Apr 24, 2002
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Simon Henderson
Patrick Clawson
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