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All Policy Analysis by Patrick Clawson
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Brief Analysis
Who Will Control the Shore and Waters of the Galilee?
Press reporting out of the Middle East in the wake of the failed Geneva summit between Presidents Bill Clinton and Hafiz al-Asad suggests that the territorial dispute between Damascus and Jerusalem has widened and that issues pertaining to the ownership of the Sea of Galilee (also known as the Kinneret
Apr 13, 2000
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Frederic Hof
Patrick Clawson
In-Depth Reports
The Last Arab-Israeli Battlefield?
Implications of an Israeli Withdrawal from Lebanon
An Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon would mark a major change in the status quo that has prevailed in the Middle East for the last twenty years. This will create both risks and opportunities for the peoples of the region and for U.S. policy. What happens after an Israeli withdrawal is
Apr 1, 2000
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Patrick Clawson
Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Advancing U.S. Interests and Better Relations with Iran
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's March 17 speech to the Conference on American-Iranian Relations was a milestone in the slowly improving bilateral ties. Although a number of useful ideas were broached, on balance the speech missed a golden opportunity to make common cause with reformist supporters of Iranian president Muhammad
Mar 20, 2000
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
A Look at Sanctioning Iraq
The U.N. economic sanctions on Iraq, now more than nine years old, continue to elicit strong objections from those who view them as unjust. Only two weeks ago, Hans von Sponeck, the U.N. humanitarian coordinator for Iraq, resigned. The sanctions, he said, create a "true human tragedy that needs to
Feb 27, 2000
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Let Iran Change on Its Own
The parliamentary elections in Iran produced a massive pro-reform vote. The obvious question is what can the United States expect and how should it respond. Paradoxically, the answers are, expect little change soon on the issues of most concern, and do little so as not to be counterproductive. Background. The
Feb 23, 2000
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Jordan's Economy under Abdullah:
One Year On
After leaving Davos as one of the stars of the World Economic Forum this week, King Abdullah returns to a country that, in 1999, registered its fourth negative real growth rate in a row. Indeed, from the beginning of his rule, Jordan's new monarch has recognized that confronting Jordan's deep
Feb 3, 2000
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Robert Satloff
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Syria's Economy:
Prospects for Peace, Aid, and Market Reform
DANIELA GRESSANI In many ways, Syria's economy is not very different from that of other countries in the region. Oil is important, accounting for 60 percent of exports. Agriculture is more important than might be expected on the basis of natural endowment: it contributes about 20 percent of the gross
Jan 31, 2000
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The U.S. Draft Treaty for Syria-Israel Peace:
A Textual Analysis
After more than a week of negotiations in Shepherdstown, W.Va., the "working draft" of the Syria-Israel peace treaty reported in yesterday's Ha'aretz notes only one area of seemingly irreconcilable difference between the two parties--over the scope of the demilitarized zone separating the two sides. As currently worded, the text neither
Jan 14, 2000
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Robert Satloff
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Mideast Update:
Report from a Trip to Israel, Jordan, Egypt, and the Palestinian Authority
ROBERT SATLOFF General Observations Meetings with the four leaders--Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak, Jordan's King Abdullah II, Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, and Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat--underscore the vitality of regional leadership. All seemed healthy, engaged, self-assured, and in command. Barak is clearly a man with a mission, convinced
Nov 29, 1999
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Robert Satloff
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Assessing Iranian Reportage on U.S.-Iran Contacts
For the last two weeks, the major Iranian newspapers have been full of reports about official contacts between the U.S. and Iranian governments. These reported contacts include a U.S. request that Tehran hand over individuals now in Iran whom the U.S. government believes are responsible for the deaths of nineteen
Sep 23, 1999
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
Stealth Bombing:
Our Silent War in Iraq
What if they waged a war and no one noticed? In 1999, American and British pilots have bombed Iraq three times a week, hitting 360 targets with 1,100 bombs during more than 10,000 sorties. Yet the Anglo-American war over Iraq does not often make the front pages of even the
Sep 9, 1999
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Student Demonstrations in Iran:
What Next?
Iran's complexities often lead it to surprise observers. The most recent surprise came not from the hardliners of the regime, but from the most active part of Iran's nascent civil society-students. Who Are These Students? Because of a quota system designed to purge the student body after the Islamic revolution
Jul 27, 1999
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
How the U.S. Can Bolster Reform in Iran
Student demonstrations in Iran this week have exposed the unpopularity of the Islamic Republic, which, among other problems, imposes medieval restrictions on women and has presided over the halving of the average Iranian's income. The question for the U.S. is how best to support the forces of change. European governments
Jul 16, 1999
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
U.S. Policy toward Iraq
Testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Subcommitte on Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs MR. CLAWSON: Thank you. It's an honor to be here with you today. I've submitted a statement for the record. And if you'll permit me, I would like just to summarize that briefly. SEN. BROWNBACK
Jun 23, 1999
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Why a New Security Council Resolution about Iraq?
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) members are discussing in the corridors two proposals for a new Iraq resolution designed to restart UN inspections of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) by offering Saddam Husayn the prospect of some relief from sanctions. The details of the two competing proposals are important
Jun 18, 1999
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Arab World, Iran, and the Kosovo Crisis
Arab Middle Eastern reactions to the Kosovo conflict can be described as a deafening quiet. Arabs are generally distraught by the plight of the ethnic Albanian Kosovars and tend to blame Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic for their suffering. Many Arabs feel that the Kosovars are not pious Muslims, however, so
May 24, 1999
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Patrick Clawson
In-Depth Reports
Dollars and Diplomacy?
The Impact of U.S. Economic Initiatives on the Arab-Israeli Peace Process
The United States devotes considerable effort -- more than $5 billion a year in aid, as well as many hours urging senior Arab and European officials to attend high-level meetings -- to promoting the twin goals of economic prosperity and economic cooperation among states and peoples in the Levant. U.S
Mar 1, 1999
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran's Domestic Infighting Worsens
Tomorrow's municipal elections, the first ever in Iran, have been the occasion for the latest round in the infighting between Iranian hardliners and moderates. That infighting has gotten progressively worse since President Muhammad Khatami took office in August 1997, and it has stymied progress on pressing economic problems and on
Feb 25, 1999
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Assessing Proposals for Changing UN Restrictions on Iraq
In the last two weeks, France, the United States, and Saudi Arabia have all proposed changes in UN restrictions on Iraq. While all would have the effect of cutting Saddam some slack, intriguingly, the Saudi plan is about as good as the American. The French Proposal. The French proposal is
Jan 19, 1999
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The 1999 Saudi Budget:
Reform in the Face of Acute Problems
The decline in world oil prices has hit Saudi Arabia hard. The benchmark Saudi crude, Arabian light, fell from $17 per barrel in 1997 to little more than $11 in 1998. Gross domestic product (GDP) declined in 1998 to about $125 billion. That translates into a per capita income of
Jan 5, 1999
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Patrick Clawson
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