All Policy Analysis by Jeffrey White

The reported defection of a senior Sunni commander and friend of Assad, if true, would be a blow to the regime and an opportunity for Washington.

Unless the army finds a way to relieve growing pressure on its capabilities and cohesion, it will likely collapse, sweeping away much of the regime in the process.

In light of the Houla tragedy and other indicators of growing violence, the UN observer mission in Syria will likely be withdrawn, spurring the regime to escalate its offensive operations even further.

Data from one of the key Syrian opposition groups, the Local Coordination Committees (LCC), shows a persistent pattern of violent, armed regime actions against the people despite the ceasefire that supposedly went into force last week ( view the Syria Incident Database). The regime has effectively continued its struggle against

On April 10, 2012, Jeffrey White and Andrew Exum addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. Mr. White, a defense fellow at the Institute, previously completed a thirty-four-year career with the Defense Intelligence Agency, serving in a wide variety of senior analytical and leadership positions. Mr. Exum, a senior

The Free Syria Army remains in the fight and should be sustained and armed to maintain military pressure on the regime.

Indirect intervention in Syria is less sure to succeed than direct intervention, but it may be more doable, giving the people the time and help they need to liberate themselves.