All Policy Analysis by Eric Trager

As Egypt prepares to vote on a constitution that could prove economically ruinous or, at best, ineffectual, Washington and its regional allies should discuss ways of encouraging Cairo to pursue much-needed reforms.

While Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood is hardly on the cusp of a dramatic comeback, it retains legions of members and active rural cells that are committed to its power-seeking program.

Given Egypt's brewing power struggles, the current state of relative calm should not be mistaken for progress, let alone stability.

Assuming the group is patient and willing to accept that the events of this summer are irreversible, it has several options for eventually regaining national influence.

The paper's new Egyptian columnist has repeatedly appeared on Arabic media outlets expressing the kind of circular, paranoid reasoning normally confined to fringe blogs in the United States.

Although the new constitution is unlikely to catalyze upheaval in the short term, the changes being contemplated could have major implications for the role of religion and the military in Egypt's political life.

Cutting aid will cost Washington substantial influence in Egypt without achieving any gains for either American geostrategy or democratic prospects within the country.

If the newly banned Brotherhood turns to violence, it will only validate a more thorough and perhaps permanent crackdown.

Too many journalists mistakenly view the Brotherhood as a normal political party rather than a highly secretive hierarchy whose most important figures often avoid the media completely.

By disorganizing Egypt's most cohesive Islamist group, the generals have turned hundreds of thousands of deeply ideological Muslim Brothers into free radicals who may no longer listen to their typically cautious leaders.