All Policy Analysis by Hamdi Malik

Although attacks on U.S. sites have surged, Iraqi militias appear to be laying the groundwork for de-escalation.

Such threats are almost certainly information operations intended to demonstrate resolve and restrict coalition freedom of movement, not precursors to real attacks that could draw heavy U.S. retaliation.

Tehran is increasingly relying on its vast regional propaganda machine to pursue its anti-American objectives, but policymakers need to be simultaneously more precise and more comprehensive in how they counter it.

The brazen approach taken by "resistance" factions in recent weeks was designed to undermine the government, but it is now coming back to hurt them.

The militia leader is positioning himself as Iran's equal and close partner, aspiring to comparisons with Hassan Nasrallah and Abdul-Malik al-Houthi.

The militia leader has not hesitated to provide court-quality evidence that he and his movement Asaib Ahl al-Haq are actively involved in attacks on U.S. forces.

Kataib Hezbollah's television outlet is still airing false claims about the release of Qasim Muslih, as well as coup threats that draw comparisons to Yemen's Houthi takeover.

Militias made a concerted effort to create the false impression that their colleague had been released immediately, and the claim was soon echoed by major global media outlets.

The first wave of post-arrest deception operations tried to give the false impression that militias controlled the Baghdad zone containing the prime minister's residence, the U.S. embassy, and other sensitive sites.

The May 20 Gaza protest in Baghdad saw the Tansiqiya speak in the notable absence of any Asaib Ahl al-Haq members, and the event was conspicuously ignored by AAH channels.

Hamas's example could embolden Iraqi factions to accelerate attacks on U.S. facilities at home, as well as seek some reflected glory by claiming Syria-based attacks against Israelis.

Nouri al-Maliki is gathering various Iraqi resistance figures who fought both Saddam and the coalition, but this marginal "old timer" party is not the same as Kataib Hezbollah, which has yet to show its hand in parliamentary politics.

Ahd Allah Islamic Movement is a social and cultural movement built around Kataib Hezbollah ideologue Hashem al-Haidari.

Militias falsely claimed attacks against Israeli and U.S. targets in retaliation for the nuclear incident, underlining how Tehran directs and coordinates each proxy's kinetic and information operations in a centralized manner.

The Imam Hussein Scout Association is Kataib Hezbollah’s youth organization and an affiliate of Lebanese Hezbollah's Kishaf al-Imam al-Mahdi youth movement.

The Sharia Youth Gathering is an umbrella movement of social service, cultural, sports, and scouting organizations that is effectively controlled by Kataib Hezbollah through a cadre of linked commanders.

Fatemiyoun Electronic Squad is a facade group that undertakes cyberattacks on behalf of Kataib Hezbollah, in close collaboration with other affiliates.

Unit 10,000 is Kataib Hezbollah's premier online facade group, specializing in the publication of resistance propaganda and the development of "electronic armies" capable of hacking, information operations, and open-source intelligence gathering.

Usbat al-Thaireen is the earliest known facade group employed to veil Kataib Hezbollah's culpability in anti-coalition operations, and its eventual shutdown may provide an important case study of such a group's complete life cycle.

Tehran still regards the full withdrawal of U.S. forces as its ultimate goal, and its Iraqi proxies are more than happy to use escalation for that purpose whenever they can.