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Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Wrestling with Annexation: The Elusive Search for a Policy Rationale
As soon as next month, Israel’s new government could approve plans to annex a substantial portion of the West Bank. The trigger for this comes from Washington—a shift by the Trump administration to recognize Israel’s new self-declared borders. But that still doesn’t explain why. What might Israel gain by discarding
Jun 16, 2020
◆
Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Why the ICC Prosecutor Is Wrong on Oslo
By making what appears to be a politically motivated case, the prosecutor’s office runs the risk of undermining both the main Israeli-Palestinian legal framework and the ICC’s role as an unbiased agent of international law.
Jun 16, 2020
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Dennis Ross
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Regional Implications of a U.S. Pullout from Afghanistan
President Donald Trump has said he plans to withdraw all U.S. troops (about 12,000) from Afghanistan by 2021 and that the United States should never have gotten involved there in the first place. Moreover, another 7,000 military forces from European countries would almost certainly leave if the United States did
Jun 15, 2020
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Thomas Parker
Brief Analysis
Mapping West Bank Annexation: Territorial and Political Uncertainties
New maps explore the scope of Israel’s potential moves next month, though domestic politics, unprecedented Gulf warnings, and other factors are raising questions about whether annexation will actually proceed.
Jun 15, 2020
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David Makovsky
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Qatar Without Tamim
Sudden Succession Essay Series
Qatar's break with Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors remains unresolved, and rumors circulate of bids to replace Tamim bin Khalifa al-Thani, Qatar’s forty-year-old emir, with one of his historically marginalized rivals.
Jun 15, 2020
◆
Simon Henderson
◆
Sudden Succession Essay Series
Brief Analysis
Middle East Mega-Trends, COVID-19, and Beyond:
Views from France
A leading scholar of Islam explores the region’s crises and their effects on Western policy, assessing what has changed since the Arab Spring.
Jun 12, 2020
◆
Gilles Kepel
Brief Analysis
The Caesar Act Comes Into Force (Part 2): Pressuring Hezbollah in Lebanon
In addition to targeting Hezbollah and other local actors who support the Assad regime and harm Lebanon’s economy, the new U.S. legislation can help bolster Beirut’s sovereignty.
Jun 12, 2020
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Hanin Ghaddar
Articles & Testimony
Israel Has a Lot to Lose by Annexing West Bank Territory
Even if Netanyahu steps away from the precipice this month, the problem will not dissipate until the White House stops incentivizing annexation with offers of American recognition.
Jun 12, 2020
◆
Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
The Caesar Act Comes Into Force (Part 1): Increasing the Assad Regime’s Isolation
New Syria sanctions signal bipartisan support for continued diplomatic isolation and economic coercion, but their impact ultimately depends on whether the executive branch is willing to prioritize the issue.
Jun 11, 2020
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Dana Stroul
Katherine Bauer
In-Depth Reports
Wrestling with Annexation:
The Elusive Search for a Policy Rationale
A potential Israeli push to annex parts of the West Bank threatens to upend a reasonably tolerable and surprisingly stable status quo to achieve dubious benefits at significant cost.
Jun 11, 2020
◆
Robert Satloff
Video
Brief Analysis
Lebanon's Bumpy Road to an IMF Deal:
Implications for U.S. Policy
A former senior Lebanese official joins two experts to discuss the country's growing financial crisis and the deep institutional problems it must address in order to meet IMF reform requirements.
Jun 10, 2020
◆
Maroun Hitti
Jessica Obeid
Sami Nader Sami Nader
Video
Brief Analysis
Iran's Asymmetric Naval Response to 'Maximum Pressure'
Three veteran observers of Iranian naval forces and doctrines assess the country's ability to punch above its weight in the Persian Gulf.
Jun 10, 2020
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Michael Connell
Farzin Nadimi
John Miller
Brief Analysis
Shifting Tides in Libya Require More Active U.S. Involvement
Directly engaging all parties is essential if Washington hopes to advance a national dialogue and prevent a Turkish-Russian accommodation that establishes their presence in Libya indefinitely.
Jun 10, 2020
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Ben Fishman
Brief Analysis
Hashd Reforms in Iraq Conceal More Than They Reveal
The reform measures called for by PMF leaders are so opaque that they could enable militia consolidation masquerading as security sector improvements.
Jun 9, 2020
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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Brief Analysis
Bumped Crops: Iran’s Grain Imports and Geopolitical Shocks
Despite its declarations of self-sufficiency, the country still imports large amounts of agricultural staples from abroad, leaving its food basket vulnerable to supply shocks, sanctions-related payment difficulties, environmental volatility, and other risks.
Jun 8, 2020
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Kevjn Lim
Articles & Testimony
Annexing West Bank Territory Was Once a Taboo for Israel. No Longer.
The idea that Israelis might embrace annexation seemed extremely improbable just a few years ago, so how did we get here?
Jun 8, 2020
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David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
You May Pay More at the Pump, as OPEC+ Cuts Oil Production
The cartel’s latest bid to increase profits will likely be counterbalanced by depressed summer demand and increased output by other producers.
Jun 8, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Netanyahu Sees a Historic Moment in Annexation. But He Might Not Be Seeing the Risks.
The prime minister has not acknowledged the important differences between this move and other recent controversies, instead making the unnecessarily dangerous bet that all the warnings will once again prove unfounded.
Jun 5, 2020
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Dennis Ross
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Taking Back the Neighborhood:
The IRGC Provincial Guard's Mission to Re-Islamize Iran
In 2008, the IRGC established a new branch that remains little known or studied today: the Provincial Guard. Operating in all of Iran's thirty-one provinces plus Tehran city, the IRGC-PG carries out the regime's revolutionary aims at the local level, inculcating conservative religious values, shaping educational curricula, and even sponsoring
Jun 4, 2020
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Saeid Golkar
Articles & Testimony
Turkey’s COVID-19 Response
President Erdogan’s ever-tightening circle of policy influencers has lagged behind on proposing innovative solutions to the pandemic, giving other politicians an opening to become the main drivers of national change.
Jun 4, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Deniz Yuksel
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