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Brief Analysis
The Obstacles Still Facing Israel’s Leviathan Gas Field
Regional and commercial challenges require an evolving business plan.
Dec 31, 2019
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Simon Henderson
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Oman After Qaboos: A National and Regional Void
Sudden Succession Essay Series
The Gulf nation of Oman has been ruled by Sultan Qaboos since 1970, when he overthrew his own father. The seventy-nine-year-old leader has enjoyed wide popularity, but he has a history of illness. To ensure national stability and continued progress, his successor will have to enact far-reaching economic reforms, aimed especially at broadening the economy beyond its current oil dependence. At the same time, a new sultan will need to navigate challenges posed by powerful neighbors such as Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
Dec 30, 2019
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Simon Henderson
◆
Sudden Succession Essay Series
Articles & Testimony
Assad Is Growing Stronger Under Trump’s Nonexistent Syria Policy
The Caesar Act will not put an end to the Syrian catastrophe so long as Washington keeps ceding political and military leverage to adversaries who do not care about human rights.
Dec 29, 2019
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Oula A. Alrifai
Articles & Testimony
The United States Can Offer the People of Lebanon and Iraq Something Tehran Can’t
Congress should offer conditional aid that forces Beirut and Baghdad to respond to their citizens’ grievances, many of which stem from Iranian-sponsored sectarianism, corruption, and violence.
Dec 24, 2019
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Dennis Ross
Dana Stroul
Articles & Testimony
Saudi Sentences in Khashoggi Murder Will Again Test U.S. Relations
The challenge for the kingdom’s Western allies is how to square Riyadh’s announcement with the CIA and UN conclusion that the crown prince himself sanctioned the crime.
Dec 23, 2019
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Turkey Pivots to Tripoli: Implications for Libya’s Civil War and U.S. Policy
Facing pressure from General Haftar and his foreign military backers, the Tripoli government has welcomed the helping hand extended by Ankara, whose own lack of regional options has drawn it into the middle of another conflict.
Dec 19, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Ben Fishman
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
New Saudi Poll Shows Just One-Fourth Back Moderate Islam or Count on the United States
The recent terrorist murders by a Saudi cadet at the Pensacola Naval Air Station have revived urgent questions about grassroots Saudi attitudes toward the United States. As luck would have it, new data from a confidential survey conducted inside Saudi Arabia last month provides the answers. And they are not
Dec 19, 2019
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David Pollock
Articles & Testimony
Russian Private Military Companies: Continuity and Evolution of the Model
In a bid to ensure plausible deniability, address internal rivalries, and advance its competition with the West, the Kremlin has increased its use of such contractors in the Middle East and elsewhere.
Dec 19, 2019
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
A Decisive Vote for Humanitarian Support in Syria
Renewing the UN cross-border mechanism is crucial to helping millions of needy Syrian civilians, preventing Russia and Assad from weaponizing aid deliveries, and safeguarding future international assistance efforts.
Dec 18, 2019
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Dana Stroul
Brief Analysis
Lebanon’s Latest Moves Show the Effectiveness of Targeted International Pressure
By uniting behind the message that financial aid and punishment will be tied to specific courses of action, the United States, France, and the UN may finally be able to push Beirut into establishing a reform-minded government.
Dec 17, 2019
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Hanin Ghaddar
Articles & Testimony
How to Reframe the American-Israeli Alliance in a New Age of Great-Power Competition
Now that China has supplanted terrorism on the list of Washington’s foreign policy priorities, Israel’s relationship with Beijing will have to change.
Dec 17, 2019
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Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Round Three in Israel: Domestic Dynamics and Foreign Policy Implications
The top contenders from round two were unwilling to compromise, but new primary challengers, shifts in voting patterns, and potential plea bargains may make their inflexibility a moot point by March.
Dec 17, 2019
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David Makovsky
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Jordan’s Public Still Focused on Economic Problems, but Opposition has Little Support
The government of Jordan has been adept at balancing domestic demands and international pressures in order to remain a moderate force in the Middle East, and will need to continue to take steps to ensure this delicate balance. Right now, despite continued popular concern over economic hardships, the main Muslim
Dec 16, 2019
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David Pollock
Shaina Katz
Articles & Testimony
Turkey Doubles Region’s Troubles—First in Syria, and Now in Libya
New maritime and military agreements may pull Ankara into Libya’s civil war, adding yet another foreign actor to an already tortuous multilateral showdown.
Dec 16, 2019
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Iran’s New Budget Is Tight, But Not Tight Enough
Rouhani has taken a remarkably austere fiscal approach ahead of the looming parliamentary election, but the country’s economic situation is still not sustainable over the long run.
Dec 13, 2019
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Patrick Clawson
After Losses, Islamic State Plots Comeback
An in-depth interview on the scope of the terrorist group's remaining activities in Syria, Iraq, and other countries, including the potential for future insurgencies and mass-casualty attacks.
Dec 13, 2019
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iran and Saudi Arabia: Imagining a Path Towards Rapprochement
Since Saudi Arabia broke ties with Iran following the 2016 ransacking and torching of the Saudi Embassy in Tehran, tensions have soared and the potential for a full-fledged military confrontation has become virtually unavoidable. With the September attack on Saudi’s oil fields in Abqaiq and the very real threat of
Dec 13, 2019
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Mohammad S. Alzoubi
Articles & Testimony
GCC Security Issues, as Their Publics See Them: A Rare Look at Real Data
Polling results from five Gulf countries show where citizens and their leaders converge and diverge on Iran, U.S. relations, and other crucial foreign policy matters.
Dec 12, 2019
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David Pollock
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
What Does It Mean to Be a Shia in Lebanon Today?
Among the Shia in Lebanon, two major shifts are taking place within the collective perception of the community. One, Lebanese Shia identity is moving from a sectarian identity to a national one, caused by the costs endured by the Shia community over the past decade. And two, there is a
Dec 12, 2019
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Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
Deterring Iran’s Next Attack
Since a maximum pressure policy requires maximum deterrence, the president should avoid tweets and actions that undercut U.S. credibility regarding the use of force, while authorizing the requisite rules of engagement.
Dec 11, 2019
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Michael Eisenstadt
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