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Brief Analysis
Beyond 'Containment' of Iraq:
An Action Plan for U.S. Policy
On March 26, 1997, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright is scheduled to deliver her first major speech on Middle East policy-her focus, Iraq. Strengthening U.S. policy toward Iraq was a key theme of The Washington Institute's recently released Presidential Study Group report, Building for Security and Peace in the Middle
Mar 24, 1997
Brief Analysis
The Arafat-Hamas Rapprochement
Hamas's suicide bombing in Tel Aviv today follows a period of improved ties between that organization and the Palestinian Authority. Over the past month, Yasser Arafat has undertaken several steps to reach a rapprochement with his Islamist opponents through personal meetings with Hamas leaders, a "National Dialogue" on February 27
Mar 21, 1997
Brief Analysis
Israeli Outlook (Part I):
Israel and the Peace Process
Before Israel's elections last May, Washington warned that the peace process could fail under the leadership of a Likud-led coalition. No one expected that nine months later, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's government would have established almost daily contact with the Palestinian Authority (PA) and its head, Yasser Arafat, redeployed
Mar 21, 1997
Brief Analysis
Israel and the Palestinian Authority:
The Security Agenda
As the stand-off over Har Homa continues, Israeli leaders and commentators are increasingly calling for a shake-up of the incremental Oslo process and an immediate move to substantive "final status" talks. According to this argument, leapfrogging over the rest of the "interim phase" has the benefit of avoiding a series
Mar 20, 1997
◆
Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Israeli Settlement Policy:
Past, Present, and Future
Who lives there? Most of the Jewish residents in the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) and Gaza are Israeli-born, white collar, young couples. The median age in Israel is twenty-nine, however in the territories the median age is nineteen. This high number of young people is one explanation for the
Mar 18, 1997
Brief Analysis
Sharm El Sheikh Revisited:
One Year Later
Today's murder of seven Israeli children by an apparently lone and deranged Jordanian soldier-the most recent outrage of Middle Eastern terrorism-ironically coincides with the first anniversary of the extraordinary "Summit of Peacemakers" in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. The summit, which brought together 29 leaders from throughout the Arab world, Turkey
Mar 13, 1997
Brief Analysis
Erbakan on the Ropes
A tense confrontation between the Turkish military and Islamist Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan's governing Refah Party may come to a head Thursday, when the Turkish cabinet meets to consider a set of uncompromisingly tough pro-secular measures inspired by the military. There is little doubt the military mistrusts Erbakan and wants
Mar 12, 1997
◆
Alan Makovsky
In-Depth Reports
Building for Security and Peace in the Middle East:
An American Agenda
The Presidential Study Group—a bipartisan, blue ribbon commission of statesman, diplomats, legislators, scholars and experts—was convened in Spring 1996 to examine the state of the Middle East and effectiveness of U.S. policy in advancing U.S. interest in the region. At its inaugural meeting, the 1996 Study Group defined a bold
Mar 1, 1997
In-Depth Reports
Iran's Economic Morass:
Mismanagement and Decline under the Islamic Republic
In the latter half of the 1990s, the Iranian economy faces horrendous problems: economic mismanagement, high inflation, declining living standards, a growing gap (much of it fueled by pervasive corruption) between a wealthy minority and vast impoverished majority, high rates of unemployment, an inability to significantly increase oil production (concurrent
Mar 1, 1997
Brief Analysis
Syria and the Peace Process:
Looking to Re-Engage?
So far, 1997 has not been a good year for Syrian President Hafiz al-Assad. It began with a deadly New Year's eve bombing in the heart of Syria's capital, which was followed soon after by the Palestinians' first signed agreement with a Likud government. The Hebron accord marked a reversal
Feb 28, 1997
Brief Analysis
Turkish Foreign Policy:
Current Challenges
Of fifty-four Muslim-majority states in the world, only Turkey has a secular, multi-party, free-market oriented government. Pursuant to this policy, Turkey is committed to developing strong ties with the United States and Europe, with which it shares values. Whatever government is in power, there is basic continuity in Turkey's foreign
Feb 27, 1997
Brief Analysis
Great Power Politics and the Azerbaijan Oil Pipeline:
An Update
The South Caspian Sea, which is adjacent to Azerbaijan, will become a significant global supplier of energy in the next decade. It has a 17.5 billion barrel proven reserve, equivalent to that of Britain's North Sea. Based on geological studies, 20-30 billion more barrels of oil could be discovered in
Feb 24, 1997
Brief Analysis
Israel's Vision of Security and Peace:
An Address by the Israeli Prime Minister
"I'm still puzzled by the Syrian refusal to discuss our withdrawal from Lebanon. I find myself in the extraordinary position of being a prime minister of the state of Israel, a Likud prime minister at that, and I am saying that we want to withdraw from Lebanon, we're prepared to
Feb 18, 1997
Brief Analysis
Why Saudi Arabia Is Too Important an Ally to Get 100 F-16s
Saudi Arabia has gotten a lot of negative attention in recent months. The Saudis have been blamed for failing to pay sufficient attention to homegrown dissidents, contributing to American deaths in terrorist attacks in Riyadh and Dhahran. King Fahd's stroke in late 1995 prompted speculation that a succession crisis loomed
Feb 13, 1997
◆
Kenneth Pollack
Brief Analysis
The Role of the European Union in the Middle East Peace Process
The common assumptions that the European Union and the United States are two contending partners in their efforts to bring peace to the Middle East, and that the EU has a marginal, secondary role in this process compared to the United States, are incorrect. The EU has long demonstrated a
Feb 12, 1997
Brief Analysis
Dismantling Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction:
A Progress Report
UNSCOM was established in April 1991 to monitor along with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Iraqi compliance with Resolution 687 (the cease fire resolution that concluded the 1991 Persian Gulf War). Resolution 687 requires Iraq to dismantle its weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and links the lifting of the
Feb 5, 1997
Brief Analysis
Prospects for Religious and Ethnic Conflict in the Middle East
MOSHE MA'OZ Over the years, religious and ethnic minorities in the Middle East have influenced political, social, and economic developments. Yet disputes over minorities have also caused tension. According to Arab scholar Sa'd a-din Ibrahim, more damage and devastation has been inflicted on the Middle East by religious and ethnic
Feb 3, 1997
In-Depth Reports
Revolution at a Crossroads:
Iran's Domestic Politics and Regional Ambitions
In their seventeen years in power, the clerics who led the 1979 Iranian revolution have concentrated on consolidating their rule and implementing Ayatollah Khomeini's revolutionary ideology. Thus far, they have proven fairly successful in the former -- Khomeini's death in June 1989 was marked by stability and continuity, and presidential
Feb 1, 1997
Brief Analysis
King Hussein, Hebron, and the Jordan-Israel Relationship
King Hussein's contribution to closing the Hebron deal reaffirms his special role as an Arab leader that Benjamin Netanyahu and Yasser Arafat both talk with and listen to. His optimism after leaving a pivotal Tel Aviv meeting with Netanyahu shortly before the deal was concluded -- "I leave here confident
Jan 29, 1997
◆
Lori Plotkin Boghardt
Brief Analysis
Identifying Loopholes in the Fight against Terrorism
Last week's Washington Post highlighted a major loophole in U.S. anti-terrorism sanctions: an exemption to the 1996 Anti-Terrorism Act that specifically authorizes U.S. financial transactions with Sudan and Syria, two countries officially designated as state sponsors of terrorism. However, this loophole is just one of several avenues through which U.S
Jan 28, 1997
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