Policy Analysis

Four years ago this month, Iraqi President Saddam Husayn tried to strengthen his hand against President-elect Clinton by rebuffing UN weapons inspectors, spiriting anti-ship missiles out of a former Iraqi naval base in Kuwait, and challenging no-fly zones in northern and southern Iraq. As he begins his second term, President

President Clinton's rather terse "thank you" to Hosni Mubarak following the signing of the Hebron agreement in contrast to the warm praise for Jordan's King Hussein is only the latest sign of tension in the U.S.-Egypt relationship. While this partnership has always had its share of problems, the two sides

Today's agreement is actually a package that includes: a protocol on security in Hebron and Israel's redeployment, a U.S. "Note for the Record" (reproduced below), U.S. letters of assurance, and a U.S. plan of assistance. Moreover, the accord is comprised of three different elements. It deals first with the present

The still-imminent agreement on Israeli redeployment in Hebron, though just technically a protocol detailing the implementation of one article of the Oslo II accord, has begun to assume the magnitude of "Oslo III." Not only does it represent the first-ever agreement between a Likud-led government and the Palestinians, but by

If negotiators overcome eleventh-hour Palestinian demands and conclude an agreement on Hebron redeployment, this accord would mark a milestone in the Middle East peace process: the first signed agreement between a Likud government and the Palestinians. With significant U.S. encouragement, the two sides will have managed to overcome the intense

Jordan's position as a bridge between the Levant and the Persian Gulf, coupled with her small size and lack of natural resources, have created its unique geopolitical role in the Middle East. Despite being surrounded by powerful neighbors, Jordan consistently exercises an independent approach to achieve its national interests. Perhaps

Necmettin Erbakan, who holds power with a bare five-vote majority, nevertheless has a surprisingly strong grip on the prime ministry. Although constrained from implementing the more radical aspects of his foreign policy agenda, Erbakan has marked Turkish policy with a firm stamp of orientation toward Islamic states, particularly radicals like

As efforts continue to broker a long-sought Israeli-Palestinian deal on Hebron redeployment by year's end, Middle East radicals and rejectionists from secular groups like the Damascus-based Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) to Islamic militant organizations like Hamas and Islamic Jihad appear to be energizing their activity and

This weekend's effort by Special Middle East Coordinator Dennis Ross to broker a conclusion to the glacial Israeli-Palestinian negotiations on Hebron replaces the mediation effort that never was -- the mission by Egyptian Foreign Minister Amre Moussa. Earlier this month, in a sign of growing anxiety over the Hebron stalemate

King Fahd is seventy-five years old and feeling the effects of his age. He has been suffering from memory loss and limited powers of concentration for several years, and certainly since his stroke last year. After that stroke, he temporarily appointed Crown Prince Abdullah regent, but resumed his duties earlier

For the United States, supporting UN Security Council Resolution 986 is a gamble. Washington hopes that the "oil-for-food" deal will be a trap that will reduce pressure to lift the rest of Iraqi sanctions, thereby thwarting Saddam Hussein's strategy to win the end of sanctions by playing on international sympathy

When Likud won Israel's May 1996 elections, Netanyahu announced that he would implement the Oslo agreement. However, the prime minister appears to be undecided as to how to do so. He is trying to muddle through the peace process, gauging American and Arab reactions before determining a course of action

While U.S. officials were in London on Friday evening, resting between mediation sessions with representatives of both main Kurdish factions, Saddam Husayn ordered his panzers into Irbil. The few Kurdish and Iraqi National Congress defenders of Irbil were overwhelmed by the more than 40,000 members of the three Republican Guard

America's inability to devise an effective response to Saddam Husayn's recent reassertion of government control over parts of northern Iraq has spurred calls for a reassessment of Washington's policy toward Baghdad. Some analysts call for the breakup of Iraq, to end the threat Saddam poses to the region and to

With the dust clearing on the public relations "spin" suggested by competing Arab, Israeli and American observers of the Middle East/North Africa Economic Conference held in Cairo two weeks ago, a detached assessment of that now-annual event would underscore the surprising durability of new regional institutions at times of political

With press reportage focusing on "Saudi Hezbollah" as the culprit of the al-Khobar Towers bombing, the challenge posed to the Saudi regime by the kingdom's minority Shi`i population has again drawn the world's attention. Historically, the Saudis have preferred to focus blame for internal problems on the Shi`is, rather than

The Cairo Economic Summit comes at an exciting time for Middle East regional cooperation. Regional countries have made substantial progress toward economic reform, including steps toward privatization and structural reform. Unfortunately, although all states in the region have a strong interest in promoting regional cooperation, only 7 percent of regional

The 1991 Gulf War and the post-war Arab-Israeli peace process fundamentally altered the relationship between the Levant and the Persian Gulf and prompted widespread regional and international interest in new security frameworks for the Middle East. Various existing proposals reveal divergent national positions on the future shape and boundaries of

Two weeks ago, on the anniversary of the 1973 October War, Syrian Defense Minister Mustafa Tlas told an interviewer that it was a "Zionist fabrication" that "President al-Asad had an opportunity to regain the Golan but refused to do so." Tlas' remarks are only the most recent in a series

Seeking to achieve stability in northern Iraq as part of a longer-term effort to bring down Saddam Hussein, Assistant Secretary of State Robert Pelletreau this week completed a round of meetings in Turkey with feuding Iraqi Kurdish leaders. However, prospects for success of this effort are minimal, the durability of