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Brief Analysis
UN Session on GERD Dispute Strains Egypt-Russia Relations
Moscow is keen on courting Ethiopia, and Cairo is beginning to realize its partner’s limitations, yet the two governments will nevertheless continue cooperating on hot-button issues like weapons procurement.
Aug 17, 2021
◆
Haisam Hassanein
Audio
Articles & Testimony
Podcast: Middle East Fallout of the Afghanistan Withdrawal
Institute scholars share their insights into how the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the rapid fall of the country to the Taliban will affect the American strategic position across the Middle East and our relationships with allies, partners, and adversaries
Aug 16, 2021
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Bilal Wahab
Kathryn Wheelbarger
Articles & Testimony
As America Exits, History Repeats Itself in Afghanistan
The question is whether and how these historical echoes will affect decisionmaking in Russia, Iran, China, Pakistan, and India.
Aug 14, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Regrouping of ISIS in the Deserts of Syria
Relying on geostrategic advantages and the absence of substantial opposition, ISIS seeks to reconfigure itself in the Syrian and Iraqi deserts in order to expand its control.
Aug 12, 2021
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Shoresh Khani
Articles & Testimony
What’s Behind Biden’s Not-So-Green Request for More Oil?
The announcement raises several awkward geopolitical questions, but market factors may ultimately make U.S. pressure moot.
Aug 12, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Jihadi Schadenfreude Over al-Nahdah in Tunisia
Whether or not Tunis repeats its past security mistakes, al-Qaeda and the Islamic State may see the president’s destabilizing power move as an opportunity to prod the government’s capabilities.
Aug 12, 2021
◆
Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
How Iran’s Deadly Tanker Attack Is Linked to the Nuclear Deal
If the United States does not respond to the drone strike off Oman, it could impair rather than facilitate progress on the JCPOA talks.
Aug 11, 2021
◆
Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Biden Needs a Middle East Strategy to Avoid New Crises
To dispel confusion among America’s partners and better counter its adversaries, the administration will have to do a better job of integrating its country-specific strategies into an overarching approach for accomplishing larger goals.
Aug 10, 2021
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Kenneth Pollack
Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Lebanon’s Crisis and UNIFIL’s Mandate Renewal
To make UNIFIL more effective and prevent dangerous destabilization in the south, the Security Council should review the force’s mandate more frequently, reallocate its resources to better fit its mission, make reporting more transparent and accurate, and hold the government and LAF accountable for their obstruction.
Aug 10, 2021
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David Schenker
Assaf Orion
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Egypt, Israel, and Nile Water Conspiracies
Egyptian media accusations regarding Israel’s role in Ethiopian Dam talks indicate Egyptian perspectives, and how they are utilized to fulfill the country's strategic aims.
Aug 9, 2021
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Haisam Hassanein
Brief Analysis
Iran-Israel Escalation at Sea: The Need for an International Coalition Response
Lethal targeting and other signs of escalation point to the necessity of a robust international maritime security force with a strong UN mandate.
Aug 9, 2021
◆
Farzin Nadimi
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Do Aircraft Carriers Deter Iran?
There are more effective, less costly, and more sustainable ways to deter Tehran and shape its behavior than back-to-back deployments of carrier strike groups to the Gulf.
Aug 6, 2021
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Michael Eisenstadt
Henry Mihm
Brief Analysis
From Global Jihad to Local Regime: HTS Builds Different Forms of Legitimacy
Ironically, the Syrian jihadist group now acts much like a typical Middle Eastern regime, from the way it mobilizes local support to the abuses it commits against those who oppose its rule.
Aug 6, 2021
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Intelligence Organizations and Transnational Suppression
MOIS and other agencies have been surveilling, abducting, and murdering dissidents for nearly four decades now, brazenly conducting operations in foreign countries under hardline and “pragmatic” Iranian governments alike.
Aug 5, 2021
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Saeid Golkar
Brief Analysis
Russia and Iran Are Supporting Assad’s Latest Attack on Deraa
The actions of Moscow and Tehran’s local forces say much about each country’s true intentions in the area, and the most immediate result could be more ethnic cleansing.
Aug 5, 2021
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Oula A. Alrifai
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Lebanon: Contemplating “The Day After” Amidst the Collapse
Lebanon continues to face a historic, unprecedented “stress test” for which it is woefully unprepared.
Aug 4, 2021
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Hassan Mneimneh
Brief Analysis
What If It’s Not a Tactic? Khamenei’s Waning Faith in the JCPOA
The Supreme Leader’s rhetoric in recent months indicates that Iran's experience under the nuclear deal has made him gun-shy about returning to that framework.
Aug 3, 2021
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Omer Carmi
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Kadhimi’s Confident Return Visit to the Oval Office
Iraqi PM Kadhimi’s recent visit demonstrates a positive vision of U.S.-Iraqi relations and improved confidence among Iraqi leaders.
Aug 3, 2021
◆
Michael Knights
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Muqawama Struggle to Show Cohesion on "Withdrawal" of U.S. Forces
A pan-Shia forum and Lebanese Hezbollah prodded the Tansiqiya to grudgingly paper over cracks in solidarity among resistance groups.
Aug 3, 2021
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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
◆
Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
What’s Worse for the Price of Oil—a Belligerent Iran or a Resurgent COVID?
The latest price lurch was rooted in the pandemic’s impact on China’s economy, not the apparent Iranian strike on an Israeli tanker.
Aug 2, 2021
◆
Simon Henderson
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