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مقالهها و دیدگاهها
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Turkey’s Syria Offensive Puts Alliance with U.S. Near Breaking Point
Erdogan is relying on his personal relationship with President Trump to stave off congressional anger, but bilateral ties cannot function if civilian and military agencies lack faith in each other.
۹ اکتبر ۲۰۱۹
◆
Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Trump’s Troop Withdrawal Gives Turkey Access to Syria—and ISIS Space to Rebuild
If the president insists on removing U.S. forces before conditions on the ground are sufficiently stable, he will clear the way for a terrorist resurgence.
۸ اکتبر ۲۰۱۹
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Dana Stroul
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
How the Syrian War Shifted Attitudes Towards Arab–Israeli Rapprochement
Anti-Israel mobilization and rhetoric have always been a prominent feature of official Arab discourse, regardless of political orientation. Islamist, nationalist, and secular parties have all seen vocal hatred of Israel as a cornerstone for rallying support and a vehicle to spread unrelated political messages to achieve related objectives, with unrelated
۴ اکتبر ۲۰۱۹
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Hadeel Oueis
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Bigoted Populism May Spell the End of Lebanon as a Modern State
An existential battle is raging in Lebanon regarding the country’s national character, identity, and prospects, with nothing less at stake than the success or failure of Lebanon as a modern project. Given that the country occupies a unique place in the wider Arab consciousness, the implications of its failure have
۴ اکتبر ۲۰۱۹
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Hassan Mneimneh
Brief Analysis
As Protests Explode, Iraq Must Get Serious About Reform
The public’s demands are just and their patience is all but gone, so Baghdad needs to get on with the hard work of opening up the economy and providing critical services before the violence spirals out of control.
۴ اکتبر ۲۰۱۹
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Bilal Wahab
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Supreme Leader Putting ‘Heroic Flexibility’ Aside
Khamenei’s latest high-profile speech may indicate his growing confidence that Iran can cope with U.S. pressure and set a high bar for resuming talks.
۴ اکتبر ۲۰۱۹
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Omer Carmi
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Kuwait: A Changing System Under Stress
Sudden Succession Essay Series
In a Gulf region experiencing sharp tensions, how might a leadership transition in Kuwait affect a much-needed node of stability?
۴ اکتبر ۲۰۱۹
◆
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen
Simon Henderson
◆
Sudden Succession Essay Series
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Tunisian Elections Suggest a Move Beyond Secularist and Islamist Politics
The Tunisian presidential elections on September 15 were held under a strange atmosphere—one that suggested a complete lack of trust in the government and ruling elite that has controlled the public sphere since the 2011 revolution. The official results announced two days after elections by the independent electoral commission known
۴ اکتبر ۲۰۱۹
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Dhia Otay
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah Prioritizes Its Own Interests, Putting Lebanon at Risk
As demonstrators rail against economic problems, corruption, and sectarianism, the group’s role in undermining the public’s financial and physical security is coming under greater scrutiny.
۳ اکتبر ۲۰۱۹
◆
Matthew Levitt
مقالهها و دیدگاهها
روابط آمریکا و عربستان؛ یک سال پس از مرگ خاشقجی
عذرخواهی تلویزیونی ولیعهد عربستان سعودی و استقبال از اصلاحات داخلی، تحت الشعاع روند مداوم نقض حقوق بشر توسط حکومت وی قرار دارد.
۳ اکتبر ۲۰۱۹
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سایمون هندرسون
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Egypt, Haftar, and U.S. Passive Interest in the Libyan Conflict
Though Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar promised a short battle for Tripoli, his Libyan National Army (LNA) forces are still engaged in a months-long siege of the city against he forces of the Islamist-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. In the midst of Libya’s civil
۳ اکتبر ۲۰۱۹
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Mohamed Maher
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Guidelines for Israel's National Security Strategy
This new study examines the current map of Israel’s threats and proposes principles to address them as the basis for a comprehensive national security strategy.
۲ اکتبر ۲۰۱۹
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Gadi Eisenkot
Gabi Siboni
Video
تحلیل کوتاه
پاسخ به حمله علیه تاسیسات نفتی عربستان: چالشی برای سیاستگذاری آمریکا
سه کارشناس مسائل سیاسی، واکنش بالقوه واشنگتن به حمله علیه تاسیسات نفتی عربستان سعودی را بررسی میکنند. واکنشی که پیامدهای جدی خواهد داشت، نهتنها در کشورهای حوزه خلیج (فارس) بلکه در هر جایی که آمریکا و متحدانش در مواجهه مستقیم با ایران و گروههای نیابتیاش باشند؛ از عراق تا لبنان و غزه.
۱ اکتبر ۲۰۱۹
◆
سوزان مالونی
نورمن رول
مایکل سینگ
Brief Analysis
Helping Iraq Take Charge of Its Command-and-Control Structure
Recent organizational shifts offer a glimmer of hope that Baghdad will stand up to Iranian influence, but implementation will be the test of their actual merit.
۳۰ سپتامبر ۲۰۱۹
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Michael Knights
Multimedia
Brief Analysis
Erdogan's Empire: The Evolution of Turkish Foreign Policy
A lively discussion of how Ottoman history, pro-Western precedent, and sharp regional setbacks have shaped the Turkish leader's shifting approach to foreign affairs and relations with Washington.
۲۷ سپتامبر ۲۰۱۹
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Soner Cagaptay
Amanda Sloat
Molly Montgomery
Tomasz Hoskins
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Israeli Elections Produce Mixed Feelings for Palestinians
The results of the Israeli elections have created mixed feelings, bringing a bit of despair along with a bit of hope as well. On the one hand, for Palestinians such as myself, there is a despair that there was little difference in terms of the peace process whether the right-wing
۲۷ سپتامبر ۲۰۱۹
◆
Mohammed Dajani
Articles & Testimony
The Economics of Calm
The stabilization efforts brokered by Israel’s defense establishment have kept a lid on things so far, but the hazards of this approach may be unsustainable at a time of donor drought and Palestinian institutional erosion.
۲۶ سپتامبر ۲۰۱۹
◆
Katherine Bauer
تحلیل کوتاه
شواهد دخالت ایران در حمله به عربستان را چگونه باید ارائه کرد؟
واشنگتن و ریاض در همکاری موثر با سازمان ملل میتوانند به اجماع جهانی در مورد نقش ایران در حمله به عربستان دست یابند و بنیانی محکم برای محکومیت ایران از سوی دول متعدد ایجاد کنند که تهران را به احتیاط وادارد.
۲۶ سپتامبر ۲۰۱۹
◆
مایکل نایتز
تیم میچتی
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Without Diversifying its Rentier Economy, Pessimism Among Kurdish Youth Will Increase
The legacy of the last 28 years of Kurdish self-governance has been marked by a broken political and economic region—with youth stripped of Kurdish patriotism. The Kurdistan Region’s rentier economy has led its policymakers to think in terms of short-term political gains, fed into a patron-client system already deeply entrenched
۲۵ سپتامبر ۲۰۱۹
◆
Yerevan Saeed
Brief Analysis
Plugging the Gaps in Saudi Arabia’s Air Defenses
The kingdom already has much of the equipment needed to intercept Iranian air attacks, but it needs Washington’s help on reacting more quickly, deterring Tehran, and establishing joint defense networks with other Gulf states.
۲۵ سپتامبر ۲۰۱۹
◆
Michael Knights
Conor Hiney
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