All Policy Analysis by Soner Cagaptay

A panel of experts offers on-the-ground insights from the disaster zone and discusses the political and policy consequences of the still-unfolding humanitarian crisis.

Once Ankara meets the initial challenge of determining an election date amid unimaginable human tragedy, it will face a campaign season dominated by debates over the conduct of relief efforts and the government’s level of responsibility for the growing death toll.

The key to an “F-16s for NATO expansion” agreement lies in the sequencing, with President Biden facing congressional opposition and President Erdogan dealing with economic and election challenges.

Although Ankara will likely approve the Nordic expansion down the road, hurdles remain for Sweden, and Russia may play the spoiler’s role unless Washington facilitates the process.

Turkey’s president faces a reinvigorated opposition at home, but he is trying to show he can still win elections while also playing Russia, the United States, and Europe against one another.

Despite supporting Ukraine militarily, President Erdogan has crucial political and economic reasons for preserving good ties with Moscow, so he is unlikely to take any actions in the Black Sea that are not strictly laid out in the Montreux Convention.

The Ukraine war has not only reaffirmed Erdogan’s remarkable political survival skills, but also highlighted the degree to which Ankara’s improved diplomatic standing is traceable to its success in exporting an innovative drone-centered military operational approach.

Moscow and Tehran may well assent to another cross-border operation, but Turkey’s choice of targets will depend on multiple U.S., Russian, and Iranian interests.

The Turkish leader has been trying to leverage Sweden and Finland’s accession to weaken international support for the YPG in Syria, but he may be content with symbolic concessions that boost his reelection chances.

Trade volume has soared and projects like the development of Sudan’s Suakin Port have drawn notice, but Ankara faces economic headwinds in its bid to keep the momentum going.

From Ukraine to Syria, drones are reshaping Erdogan’s foreign policy.

The Ukraine war has greatly boosted their diplomatic and military cooperation, but lingering friction over Syria, Libya, and Mediterranean issues will need to be handled carefully if this rapprochement is to endure.

Three experts discuss whether the war might alter Washington’s calculus on rapprochement with Turkey, regional military deployments, and wider great power competition.

Turkey has been forced to adopt a new approach abroad, presenting a valuable opportunity that the United States and Europe need to seize quickly.

Fears of Russian military power may keep Ankara out of the spotlight, but its Black Sea calculations and Crimean Tatar sympathies indicate a willingness to assist behind the scenes if necessary.

The president is very unlikely to win the next election fair and square, so he may well resort to undermining the vote, disregarding the result, or even fomenting a January 6-like insurrection.

As Ankara and Moscow mull a potential exchange of Syria border incursions for Idlib concessions, Erdogan risks endangering his intertwined goals of improving Turkey’s economy and minimizing tensions with Washington.

Washington and Ankara have significant diplomatic and security incentives for considering the deal, while rejecting it outright would likely hasten Erdogan’s drift into Putin’s orbit.

Erdogan knows that a flourishing opposition could mean his political demise.

The unprecedented economic growth and personal popularity once enjoyed by the Turkish leader have given way to stagnation, a dwindling support base, and problems abroad.