All Policy Analysis by Soner Cagaptay

A deep dive into the evolution of Turkey’s Middle East policy and the mixed results it has had in two Russian-fueled conflict zones.

Weighty domestic concerns and geopolitical fears will likely keep Erdogan from pushing too hard against the current Russian-Syrian campaign, but the parties may yet broker a temporary deal to carve the province in half.

Facing pressure from General Haftar and his foreign military backers, the Tripoli government has welcomed the helping hand extended by Ankara, whose own lack of regional options has drawn it into the middle of another conflict.

The Turkish leader knows that if he cannot restore economic growth at home or stay just out of Russia’s permanent orbit, his political troubles will only increase.

The Trump administration needs to treat the meeting as a chance to frankly address congressional concerns and defuse a host of hot-button issues, from Syria policy to F-35 production.

Ankara is willing to take provocative and risky steps around Cyprus because it views the island’s gas resources and strategic location as crucial to countering rivals and securing interests in the neighborhood.

An in-depth conversation on Washington's misguided tendency to view Turkey through binary lenses based entirely on Erdogan’s policies, forgetting the country’s strong political diversity.

As Washington pushes Erdogan to act responsibly in northeast Syria, the Turkish leader may face contrary pressures from Russia and Iran, who are keeping forces on the ground to back up whatever demands are made at this week’s summit and beyond.

Erdogan has achieved his primary goal of breaking the U.S.-YPG partnership by leveraging Trump and Putin against each other, but Russia and Iran won’t let him exit Syria scot-free.

The Trump administration is implicitly backing Ankara’s policy imperatives for now, but its approval comes with an imminent expiration date that could arrive even sooner if the operation goes awry.

Erdogan is relying on his personal relationship with President Trump to stave off congressional anger, but bilateral ties cannot function if civilian and military agencies lack faith in each other.