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All Policy Analysis by Soner Cagaptay
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Articles & Testimony
Arab Spring Heats Up Kurdish Issue
Middle Eastern states have shifted alliances over the Kurdish question in the wake of the Arab Spring and the withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Iraq.
May 21, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Flooding Out Terror? Turkey's Ilisu Dam Project
The Ilisu Dam project could enter the annals of counterterrorism as history's first "hydro-victory."
May 14, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Altay Otun
Articles & Testimony
Kemalism Is Dead, but Not Ataturk
Kemalism may be dead, but Ataturk's way of doing business appears to be alive and kicking in Turkey.
May 2, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
How Does the New Turkey Think?
Turkey has changed so drastically in the past decade that it has become largely unrecognizable. For starters, the country has experienced a sort of economic miracle, nearly tripling its economic output in the past decade and subsequently joining the ranks of the elite G-20 club. Politically, too, Turkey has undergone
Apr 30, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Arab AKPs in the Making?
Can Turkey's experience in the past decade under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government -- blending democracy, close ties with the West, a "Muslim" foreign policy, capitalism and Islamism -- be copied by Arabs, as many claim? Probably not -- except for Tunisia. Although rooted in Turkey's Islamist movement
Apr 23, 2012
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David Pollock
Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Are Syrian Alawites and Turkish Alevis the Same?
Could Turkey really go to war against Syria? If it were to do so, Ankara would need to find a way to deal with the increasingly sectarian nature of the conflict in Syria and its potential ramifications inside Turkey. The regime of Bashar al-Assad has enjoyed overwhelming support among Syria's
Apr 17, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Will Syria's Sectarian Divisions Spill Over into Turkey?
Should the conflict in Syria turn Sunni on Alawite, Turkish Alevis may find themselves actively opposing any intervention organized by their own government. Observers of the growing humanitarian crisis in Syria are increasingly worried that the conflict will turn into sectarian struggle, and with good reason: the Assad regime has
Apr 16, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
How Iran and Turkey See Each Other
Welcome to the new Middle East, which increasingly looks too small to accommodate both Turkey and Iran. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is visiting Riyadh on Friday. The Syrian crisis will dominate the agenda in Riyadh, and Iran will scrutinize every statement made by Erdogan and his Saudi hosts
Apr 13, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Alex Vatanka
Brief Analysis
Changed Prospects for Turkish Military Intervention in Syria
Several recent developments have put the possibility of military action in Syria on Turkey's agenda. On April 9, Syrian forces opened fire at a refugee camp on the Turkish side of the border, killing two Syrian refugees and wounding two Turks. The number of such refugees crossing into Turkey has
Apr 12, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
A Piece of Turkey Lies in the Middle of the Syrian Desert
A little-known Turkish exclave, Caber Kalesi (Qal'at Ja'bar in Arabic), is a sliver of sovereign Turkish territory that sits smack in the middle of Syria.
Apr 8, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Syria and Turkey: The PKK Dimension
Among Syrian opposition groups, the belief is widespread that Damascus has been allowing the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) -- a group on the State Department's Foreign Terrorist Organizations list -- to operate once again in Syria. Back in 1998, the Syrian regime curbed PKK activity on its soil and cut
Apr 5, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Ottomania All the Rage in Turkey
"Fetih 1453" ( The Conquest 1453), a Turkish spring blockbuster that glorifies the Ottomans and their conquest of Istanbul, is breaking viewership records in Turkey these days. Over 5 million Turks have already seen the movie, making it the country's most popular film of all time. The film's popularity sheds
Apr 2, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Suna Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Don't Expect Turkey to Invade Syria
A Turkish intervention in Syria could boomerang, ratcheting up PKK attacks and eroding the soft power Turkey has painstakingly built in the Middle East over the past decade.
Mar 25, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Turkey's Foreign Policy Pivot
What made Ankara do an about-face and re-embrace the West? Recognition of what gives it power in the Middle East.
Mar 21, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Mar 13, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Why Turkey Hasn't Intervened in Syria
Turkey's Syria policy seems to be mirroring its Libya strategy: speaking out against a tyrant, gathering international support for political action against him, but staying in the background when it comes to military action.
Mar 13, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Mar 2, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Why Delayed Intervention in Syria Could Cause Radicalization
The sooner the international community helps end the killing in Syria, the more likely it will be able to prevent radicalization of the country's population along sectarian lines.
Mar 2, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Turkey's Post-EU World
For the moment, at least, the notion that Turkey will become a full EU member state is no longer true.
Feb 28, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Next Up: Turkey vs. Iran
Turkish-Iranian rivalry in the Fertile Crescent has opened up a can of worms.
Feb 14, 2012
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Soner Cagaptay
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