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All Policy Analysis by Assaf Orion
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Brief Analysis
How to Avoid Another Lost Year for UNIFIL
At this point, even if the “interim” force was somehow able and willing to implement its mandate in southern Lebanon, it might not be enough to prevent war—but Washington should still press for whatever reforms it can.
Jun 21, 2022
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David Schenker
Assaf Orion
Articles & Testimony
Israel’s New Strategy: Why a Post-American Middle East Means a Greater Role in Regional Security
In strategic terms, at least, the United States is increasingly shifting its attention to Asia, but this may represent an opportunity for Israel as much as a challenge.
Feb 18, 2022
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Amos Yadlin
Assaf Orion
Articles & Testimony
Beyond Chastity Belt and Road
U.S.-Israel Relations in the Age of Great Power Competition
Israel’s ties to China have raised concerns in Washington, but select bilateral activity should be permissible in the context of an irreplaceable U.S.-Israel alliance.
Feb 6, 2022
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Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Lebanon’s Crisis and UNIFIL’s Mandate Renewal
To make UNIFIL more effective and prevent dangerous destabilization in the south, the Security Council should review the force’s mandate more frequently, reallocate its resources to better fit its mission, make reporting more transparent and accurate, and hold the government and LAF accountable for their obstruction.
Aug 10, 2021
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David Schenker
Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Sword of Jerusalem vs. Guardian of the Walls: Gaza and the Next Lebanon War
The military particulars of the clash between Hamas and IDF doctrines reveal much common ground with potential future conflicts involving the other members of Iran’s “axis of resistance.”
Jun 15, 2021
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Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Moving Israel to CENTCOM: Another Step Into the Light
The new command shift, which is rooted in years of growing collaboration away from the limelight, promises to facilitate bilateral and regional security cooperation and burden sharing, while the IDF-EUCOM-CENTCOM experience sets the stage for the next frontier: U.S.-Israeli military dialogue on the China-Iran partnership.
Jan 28, 2021
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Assaf Orion
Mark Montgomery
Brief Analysis
UAVs and the Abraham Accords: New Horizons for Sinai Peacekeeping
Replacing manned monitoring missions with drone sorties and inviting Gulf countries to participate would help improve security, reduce America’s burden and risk, decrease costs, and bolster the regional peace architecture.
Jan 13, 2021
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Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah’s Secrets Explode—and Are Covered Up—Again
Hezbollah leaders are still trying to conceal their strategy of hiding military assets in civilian areas, but each self-explosion and Israeli exposure reveals more about the group's political plight, its persistent quest for precision missiles, and its skill with information operations.
Oct 8, 2020
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Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
UNIFIL’s Yearly Mandate Renewal: Maintain Ends, Change Ways and Means
Most parties would be happy maintaining the status quo, but staying course on the current security trends is unsustainable and may lead to escalation unless the Security Council revises its peacekeeping mission and procedures.
Jul 22, 2020
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Assaf Orion
Articles & Testimony
The Blue Line: The Israel-Sudan Border? The Challenge of Infiltrators from Lebanon
Although Sudanese workers crossing the border are hardly a terrorist threat, they do pose problems that need to be addressed by Israeli, Lebanese, and international authorities.
Jul 1, 2020
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Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Jun 28, 2020
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Assaf Orion
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Avoiding an Epic Mistake:
The Case for Continuing the U.S. Mission in Sinai
For almost four decades, the Multinational Force & Observers has protected Israel-Egypt peace and anchored stability in the Sinai Peninsula, but a new Pentagon initiative could end the American contribution by late next year. Defense Secretary Mark Esper has indicated that all military endeavors must now fall within a National
May 27, 2020
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Assaf Orion
Denis Thompson
Brief Analysis
Lebanon's Crises Offer a Chance to Address Hezbollah Violations in the South
The UN’s latest report makes clear that the dangerous situation will not improve on its own, compelling the international community to find new ways of addressing the group’s violations and the role that the Lebanese government and military play in enabling them.
May 5, 2020
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Assaf Orion
Articles & Testimony
How to Reframe the American-Israeli Alliance in a New Age of Great-Power Competition
Now that China has supplanted terrorism on the list of Washington’s foreign policy priorities, Israel’s relationship with Beijing will have to change.
Dec 17, 2019
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Assaf Orion
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Hiding in Plain Sight:
Hezbollah's Campaign Against UNIFIL
In summer 2006, the United Nations passed Security Council Resolution 1701 with the goal of ending the war between Israel and Hezbollah and preventing a recurrence. Among its terms was an expansion of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, a multinational peacekeeping body created in 1978. UN reports over the
Nov 15, 2019
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Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Time to Change Course on the UN’s Lebanon Policy
Serious change is required to avoid decisions that accommodate Hezbollah’s ends, ways, and means, and a vital first step is to look at current policy mechanics with a clear eye.
Aug 13, 2019
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Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
If Iran Deploys Missiles in Iraq: U.S.-Israeli Response Options
If Iran duplicates its formula from Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen by sending long-range missiles to Iraq, then future conflicts with Israel would likely include military action on Iraqi soil.
May 13, 2019
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Michael Knights
Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
The Big, the Small, and the Needless: Rebalancing Three UN Peacekeeping Missions
A former Israeli general explains why rethinking the missions is crucial to containing Iran’s proxies and reducing waste in international security expenditures.
Dec 14, 2018
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Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Saudi Arabia’s ‘Black Swan’ Policymaking
Riyadh’s allies need to adjust more to the kingdom’s dynamic decisionmaking, once noted for being slow and cautious.
Dec 12, 2018
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Assaf Orion
Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
All Is Quiet on Iran’s Western Front, Say UN Peacekeepers
Local UN forces need serious rebalancing if they are to help address Tehran’s blatant military buildup in the area.
Dec 11, 2018
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Assaf Orion
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