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All Policy Analysis by Assaf Orion
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In-Depth Reports
Avoiding an Epic Mistake:
The Case for Continuing the U.S. Mission in Sinai
For almost four decades, the Multinational Force & Observers has protected Israel-Egypt peace and anchored stability in the Sinai Peninsula, but a new Pentagon initiative could end the American contribution by late next year. Defense Secretary Mark Esper has indicated that all military endeavors must now fall within a National
May 27, 2020
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Assaf Orion
Denis Thompson
Brief Analysis
Lebanon's Crises Offer a Chance to Address Hezbollah Violations in the South
The UN’s latest report makes clear that the dangerous situation will not improve on its own, compelling the international community to find new ways of addressing the group’s violations and the role that the Lebanese government and military play in enabling them.
May 5, 2020
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Assaf Orion
Articles & Testimony
How to Reframe the American-Israeli Alliance in a New Age of Great-Power Competition
Now that China has supplanted terrorism on the list of Washington’s foreign policy priorities, Israel’s relationship with Beijing will have to change.
Dec 17, 2019
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Assaf Orion
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Hiding in Plain Sight:
Hezbollah's Campaign Against UNIFIL
In summer 2006, the United Nations passed Security Council Resolution 1701 with the goal of ending the war between Israel and Hezbollah and preventing a recurrence. Among its terms was an expansion of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, a multinational peacekeeping body created in 1978. UN reports over the
Nov 15, 2019
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Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Time to Change Course on the UN’s Lebanon Policy
Serious change is required to avoid decisions that accommodate Hezbollah’s ends, ways, and means, and a vital first step is to look at current policy mechanics with a clear eye.
Aug 13, 2019
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Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
If Iran Deploys Missiles in Iraq: U.S.-Israeli Response Options
If Iran duplicates its formula from Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen by sending long-range missiles to Iraq, then future conflicts with Israel would likely include military action on Iraqi soil.
May 13, 2019
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Michael Knights
Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
The Big, the Small, and the Needless: Rebalancing Three UN Peacekeeping Missions
A former Israeli general explains why rethinking the missions is crucial to containing Iran’s proxies and reducing waste in international security expenditures.
Dec 14, 2018
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Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Saudi Arabia’s ‘Black Swan’ Policymaking
Riyadh’s allies need to adjust more to the kingdom’s dynamic decisionmaking, once noted for being slow and cautious.
Dec 12, 2018
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Assaf Orion
Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
All Is Quiet on Iran’s Western Front, Say UN Peacekeepers
Local UN forces need serious rebalancing if they are to help address Tehran’s blatant military buildup in the area.
Dec 11, 2018
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Assaf Orion
In-Depth Reports
Iran's Precision Missile Project Moves to Lebanon
Three experts examine Tehran's objectives, Russia's regional goals, and the way these translate to long-term threats and short-term risks for Israel.
Dec 10, 2018
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Katherine Bauer
Hanin Ghaddar
Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Flare-Up in Gaza (Part 2): Gently Undoing a Gordian Knot
Israel and Hamas cannot advance their current strategic goals through intensified fighting, but the Cairo dialogue could enable important short-term gains in Gaza.
Nov 20, 2018
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Ghaith al-Omari
Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Netanyahu Visits Oman
The high-profile nature of the meeting reaffirms Israel’s success in developing ties with Gulf states, as well as the independent character of Oman’s leader.
Oct 26, 2018
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Simon Henderson
Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
After the Ilyushin Crash: Israel's Anti-Iran Operations in Syria
Russia delivered advanced air-defense systems to Syria after the recent airplane-downing incident, but its desire to check Iran could permit continued Israeli operations in the Syrian skies.
Oct 3, 2018
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Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Syria Downs a Russian Plane: What Next?
Despite Russia’s anger and false media claims about the incident, Moscow is unlikely to demand that Israel halt its campaign against Iran’s foreign military buildup.
Sep 21, 2018
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Assaf Orion
Anna Borshchevskaya
Matthew Levitt
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