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All Policy Analysis by Assaf Orion
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Brief Analysis
How to End the Third Lebanon War—and Prevent the Fourth
The security arrangements set forth by Resolution 1701 and other past accords need to be beefed up and, more important, enforced—a task that may require an international “action group” willing to operate beyond the Security Council’s limitations.
Oct 29, 2024
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Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Improving Egypt-Israel Relations in the Shadow of Gaza
In addition to addressing each country’s concerns about border sovereignty, smuggling, and other irritants, Washington should emphasize the longer-term need to return to the peace treaty’s military limitations after the Gaza war.
Sep 24, 2024
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David Schenker
Assaf Orion
Articles & Testimony
Israel and the Coming Long War
To defeat Iran’s "resistance" axis, the IDF needs a new strategy—and a unified country.
Sep 13, 2024
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Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Another One-Day War? What the Latest Hezbollah-Israel Clash Reveals About Deterrence and Escalation
Israeli and Lebanese experts join two former U.S. officials to discuss what each party was thinking before, during, and after this weekend’s exchange of strikes—and whether war in the north has become inevitable regardless of near-term de-escalation.
Aug 27, 2024
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Ben Fishman
Hanin Ghaddar
Assaf Orion
Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
The Pros and Cons of Salvaging (or Ditching) UNIFIL
Given the current lack of viable security alternatives on the Israel-Lebanon border, Washington may try to patch up UNIFIL’s many deficiencies—but it must do so with a clear understanding that the force has repeatedly failed its mission and squandered its credibility.
Aug 20, 2024
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David Schenker
Assaf Orion
Video
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah-Israel Escalation: Prospects for War
A former Israeli military planner joins three experts to discuss each side’s current calculus and the U.S. policy implications if they opt for war or a truce.
Jul 2, 2024
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Matthew Levitt
Hanin Ghaddar
David Schenker
Assaf Orion
Articles & Testimony
Facing Off—China and Taiwan in the Contexts of the Swords of Iron War
Three Israeli experts analyze the strategic quandaries raised by Beijing’s vocal support for Hamas during the war.
Jun 16, 2024
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Assaf Orion
Roy Ben Tzur
Ofir Dayan
Brief Analysis
The Red-Hot Blue Line
As the Israel-Lebanon frontier teeters on the brink, Washington and its partners need to urgently exhaust all diplomatic options to prevent war—but without resorting to false remedies or giving Beirut and the LAF a pass for their worsening collusion.
Jan 11, 2024
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Assaf Orion
Video
Brief Analysis
The Hamas-Israel War: End of the Beginning or Beginning of the End?
Experts discuss the military and political situation at what appears to be a decisive moment in the war, offering insights on Israel’s calculations, the effects of growing foreign pressure, and the need for further international action to address attacks by Iran’s other regional partners.
Dec 15, 2023
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Assaf Orion
Hanin Ghaddar
Matthew Levitt
Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
The End of Israel’s Gaza Illusions
The country must come to terms with the fact that this war is deeply different from those it has fought in recent decades, and commit unwaveringly to transforming its security approach.
Nov 3, 2023
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Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
The Battle for UNIFIL’s Independence (Part 1): Hezbollah at the UN
Renewing the force’s mandate while blocking Hezbollah’s bid to formally hamstring it are welcome developments, but more concerted diplomatic action will be needed to reverse the downward security trend.
Sep 21, 2023
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Assaf Orion
Matthew Levitt
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Battle for UNIFIL’s Independence (Part 2): Facts on the Ground
The secretary-general’s latest report documents Hezbollah’s expanding violations—and the growing role that Lebanese government officials and military commanders play in abetting this activity.
Sep 21, 2023
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Matthew Levitt
Assaf Orion
Video
Brief Analysis
Israel-Lebanon Border Tensions: Hezbollah Provocation, IDF Response, and the Potential for Conflict
Three experts discuss the worsening situation on the ground and assess whether a new war is likely in the near term.
Aug 25, 2023
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Hanin Ghaddar
Assaf Orion
Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Yellow Tents Across the Blue Line: Hezbollah’s New Brinkmanship
The group has been erecting structures and sending armed personnel into Israeli territory, decreasing the margin of error for diplomatic solutions and further eroding the credibility of the post-2006 border security regime.
Jul 14, 2023
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Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Last Call for UNIFIL? Israel and Hezbollah in a 2006 Deja Vu
The exchange of threats between Israeli and Hezbollah officials is just one in a series of developments indicating higher risk of miscalculation and large-scale regional conflict.
Jun 2, 2023
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Assaf Orion
Articles & Testimony
What Is the New Israeli Government’s China Policy?
As Netanyahu promotes widened economic relations with Beijing, he must remain mindful of how his predecessors weighed Washington's deep strategic concerns about national security and technology.
Jan 3, 2023
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Assaf Orion
Articles & Testimony
No, Israel Isn’t Falling Into China’s Orbit
Much has been made about their growing ties, but an in-depth look at their actual activity in various sectors shows that alarmism is unwarranted.
Sep 6, 2022
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Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
UN Forces in Lebanon Losing Ground in a Fast-Deteriorating Security Situation
Despite the troubling trends and escalatory incidents described in the latest UN report, the Security Council seems intent on maintaining a failed policy instead of taking urgent action to curb the growing threat of war.
Aug 5, 2022
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Assaf Orion
Articles & Testimony
China Below the Radar: Israel-US Strategic Dialogue on Technology
Although the headlines were focused elsewhere, the president’s Israel-Saudi trip included statements, agreements, and newly announced inter-agency dialogues that imply deep implications for China policy.
Jul 26, 2022
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Assaf Orion
Shira Efron
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Don’t Look Down: The Struggle Over Lebanon’s Airspace
To avoid past mistakes and counter the most potent threat on its borders, Israel requires an accurate intelligence picture in Lebanon, but Iran and Hezbollah risk destabilizing the situation by chipping away at the IDF’s air superiority.
Jul 7, 2022
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Assaf Orion
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