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Brief Analysis
The Islamic State in 2023: Threat Levels and Repatriation Questions
The latest UN report on the terrorist organization highlights the need for more progress on addressing repatriation challenges, new financing methods, weapons proliferation, and threats to African stability, among other issues.
Feb 15, 2023
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Devorah Margolin
Articles & Testimony
Israel Shouldn’t Cherry-Pick the American Model in Its Judicial Debate
If the government jettisons the idea of an independent judiciary, it could have a profound effect on the U.S.-Israel relationship.
Feb 15, 2023
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Dennis Ross
David Makovsky
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Variables the United States Should Consider on Dollar Smuggling in Iraq
U.S. pressure on Iraq to prevent dollar smuggling and dinar laundering can protect Iraq’s sovereignty and weaken Iran. But if executed without deliberation, this pressure could allow Russia and China to enhance their positions in the Middle East.
Feb 15, 2023
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Frzand Sherko
Brief Analysis
How Will Turkey’s Earthquake Affect the Current Election Cycle?
Once Ankara meets the initial challenge of determining an election date amid unimaginable human tragedy, it will face a campaign season dominated by debates over the conduct of relief efforts and the government’s level of responsibility for the growing death toll.
Feb 14, 2023
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Soner Cagaptay
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Takeaways from William Burns’ Surprise Visit to Libya
Burns met with both Dbeibeh and Haftar, likely to discuss key U.S. concerns such as the Lockerbie case, energy security, and terrorism.
Feb 13, 2023
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Mohamed Eljarh
Articles & Testimony
Tipping Point of the Iraq-KRG Energy Dispute
Baghdad’s legal wins won’t mean much if it mishandles the political end, angers Turkey, and further damages the country’s reputation as a reliable oil partner.
Feb 13, 2023
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Bilal Wahab
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iran Unveils New Underground Air Base
The facility is seemingly intended for launching surprise maritime interdiction missions in the Persian Gulf region, mainly aimed at U.S. Fifth Fleet assets—though it probably won’t be able to accommodate Iran’s potential future fleet of Russian jets.
Feb 13, 2023
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Bahrain Reveals Visit by Israel’s Top General
The meeting highlights the continuing U.S.-led focus on the Iranian threat and the underlying strength of the Abraham Accords.
Feb 10, 2023
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Simon Henderson
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Coming of Erdoğan’s Fourth War for Control: The AKP’s Looming Showdown with Turkey’s Nationalists
Although his alliance with the MHP has kept him in power, Erdoğan increasingly views the nationalist party as a threat that needs to be dealt with.
Feb 10, 2023
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Hasim Tekines
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraq’s "Muqawama Government" Drives Out Prominent LGBTQ Advocate
Officials appear to be cracking down on freedom of speech and alternative lifestyles opposed by the self-styled militia "resistance."
Feb 10, 2023
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Hamdi Malik
Amir al-Kaabi
Michael Knights
Crispin Smith
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Militia Spotlight
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Energy Geopolitics of North Africa
The longstanding regional rivalry between Morocco and Algeria has taken on new meaning as the two countries vie for energy partnerships in Europe.
Feb 9, 2023
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Nashat Shawamreh
Brief Analysis
The State of the Union and the Middle East
A compendium of what the past three U.S. presidents have said—and not said—about the region in their annual speeches before Congress.
Feb 8, 2023
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Eric Feely
Articles & Testimony
Musharraf’s Life Story Tracked Pakistan’s Struggle with the U.S.
The late leader’s funeral also shed light on the status of military-civil relations in Islamabad, where governments come and go but the military remains the most powerful party.
Feb 8, 2023
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Simon Henderson
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Fractured Opposition to the Islamic Regime
The Iranian opposition has aligned itself well with the recent protest movement, but evidence of its ability to play an organizational or leadership role in future protests remains limited.
Feb 7, 2023
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Ata Hoodashtian
Brief Analysis
The Juniper Oak Military Exercise: Implications for Innovation, Experimentation, and U.S. Policy Toward Iran
Last week’s large, combined exercise was intended to assure friends and deter adversaries, but both goals will ultimately depend on fixing a flawed policy toward Iran.
Feb 1, 2023
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Abdullah and Biden Need to Discuss Economics, Not Just Israeli-Palestinian Tensions
Finding ways to contain the mounting violence next door is crucial, but the two leaders should keep in mind that deteriorating economic conditions can pose threats of their own.
Feb 1, 2023
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David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
We’ll Need Oil for Decades to Come—and OPEC Needs the High Price
As the cartel’s top players discuss their future production goals, Western leaders are becoming increasingly concerned that oil policy will be warped by Moscow’s desire to grind out a victory in Ukraine and punish Kyiv’s backers.
Jan 31, 2023
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Simon Henderson
Video
The Symptom and the Disease: Cholera and State Collapse in Syria and Lebanon
What has caused Lebanon's devastating cholera epidemic, and why haven't authorities and healthcare professionals been able to stop it?
Jan 31, 2023
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Hanin Ghaddar
Andrew J. Tabler
Articles & Testimony
The EU Can, and Should, Designate the IRGC as a Terrorist Group
Legitimate policy debates aside, and contrary to recent statements by the EU’s foreign policy chief, Europe has more than enough legal authority and evidence to designate the organization.
Jan 30, 2023
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Arab Gulf States Shift Toward More Harmonious Relations
After years of simmering tension, the recent evidence of positive change cannot be ignored.
Jan 30, 2023
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Simon Henderson
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