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Articles & Testimony
The Paradox of Centralization and State Fracture in Iraq
Decentralizing power would have been the best way of avoiding a return to Saddam-era authoritarianism and corruption, but Baghdad has favored centralization instead—while simultaneously fissuring the state through sectarian patronage and competition.
Dec 9, 2022
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Bilal Wahab
Brief Analysis
Human Rights Sanctions on Iran Need More Coordination and Creativity
Several countries have rapidly imposed new sanctions in response to the regime’s repression of peaceful protests, but they should do more to harmonize and expand these actions.
Dec 9, 2022
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Henry Rome
Brief Analysis
Violence in Iran’s Uprising: What Happens If Either Side Escalates?
The regime still has additional means of making the crackdown even more lethal, and parts of the country are potentially primed to take up arms in response, with uncertain consequences on the ground.
Dec 8, 2022
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Farzin Nadimi
Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
The Middle East in a Multipolar Era: Why America’s Allies Are Flirting With Russia and China
Because many states are eschewing both alignment with a single great power and nonalignment, the best U.S. response to this “omni-alignment” is creating more tailored opportunities for high-value cooperation with Washington.
Dec 7, 2022
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Michael Singh
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Regional Impact of Iran’s Drones in Ukraine
Russia's use of Iranian drones in Ukraine foreshadows potentially dangerous developments for U.S. forces and their allies in the Middle East.
Dec 7, 2022
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Omar Alradad
Articles & Testimony
Only Russia’s Decisive Loss on the Battlefield Will End the Ukraine War
The West hasn’t shown signs of abandoning Ukraine in the near term, but it also hasn’t set a clear goal of permanently changing Moscow’s strategic calculus, which remains fixed on winning the long game.
Dec 6, 2022
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
What Saudi Arabia Wants from President Xi’s Visit
China is already one of the kingdom’s major commercial partners and a significant supplier of military and nuclear technology, but Riyadh wants more of each.
Dec 6, 2022
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Simon Henderson
Carol Silber
Brief Analysis
UAE Leader Visits Qatar: An Advance, Not a Breakthrough
Sandwiched between meetings with a Taliban leader and Israel’s president, the Doha trip reflects the scope and versatility of Emirati diplomacy.
Dec 5, 2022
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Simon Henderson
Video
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah Turns 40: Implications of the Group’s Internal, Regional, and Strategic Shifts
Four experts assess Hezbollah's impact at home and abroad after decades of political maneuvering, military operations, and criminal activity.
Dec 2, 2022
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Hanin Ghaddar
Matthew Levitt
Mona Fayad
Akeel Abbas
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
KRG and PA: Reprioritizing Governance over Symbolism
Although Palestinian and Kurdish politics have similarly deteriorated into ineffective blame games, fresh U.S. policies focused on institution-building could restore the promise of progress in both cases.
Dec 2, 2022
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Ghaith al-Omari
Bilal Wahab
Brief Analysis
Tunisians Pessimistic Ahead of Parliamentary Election
Socioeconomic unrest is growing in many parts of the country, and the series of elections planned this month and next year hold little prospect of bolstering public confidence in an increasingly autocratic government.
Dec 2, 2022
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Sabina Henneberg
Brief Analysis
Khamenei Focusing on “External Threats,” Not Protest Demands
In an attempt to rally Iranians around the flag, his latest speech fixated on “Western plots,” indicating that he has no imminent plans to make significant concessions to protesters.
Dec 2, 2022
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Omer Carmi
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iran Team’s Ambivalent Approach to Protests During the World Cup
Iran's loss at the World Cup coincides with controversy and tensions both back home and around the globe.
Dec 2, 2022
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S. Houseini
Articles & Testimony
Inflation, Soccer, Russia’s Mischief—Will Anyone Pay Attention to OPEC+?
Whether or not the cartel tweaks production quotas at its next meeting, ongoing global crises and the approach of a dark, cold winter in Europe may yet cause economic shudders.
Dec 1, 2022
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Simon Henderson
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
"Sudani Is a General Manager": How Militias View Iraq's New Prime Minister
Militia leaders have stated that his authority will be limited to technocratic and bureaucratic matters, while they will dictate the country's strategic direction and security decisions—including the future U.S. presence in Iraq.
Dec 1, 2022
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Hamdi Malik
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Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Kataib Hezbollah and Kaf Celebrate Attacks on Americans
The militia's media channel has been praising past Iranian-aided terrorist acts that killed and wounded U.S. military personnel in Iraq—and linking them to current activities.
Nov 30, 2022
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Michael Knights
Aya Yousuf
Hamdi Malik
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Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Netanyahu and Hamas Set to Coexist Uneasily Again
The prime minister’s return to power is unlikely to change either side’s status-quo calculations about Gaza, though Washington should still keep an eye on potential wild cards such as spillover from Temple Mount tensions and Iranian meddling.
Nov 29, 2022
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David Pollock
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Iran's Nuclear Hedging Strategy:
Shaping the Islamic Republic's Proliferation Calculus
Tehran’s willingness to pause aspects of its nuclear program may offer opportunities to stoke regime concerns about the potential costs of moving forward.
Nov 29, 2022
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Team Melli vs. Team USA: Iran’s Game of Contradictions
The regime’s often-hypocritical handling of this year’s World Cup comes to a head with a matchup against the United States, and a political victory seems unattainable regardless of the results on the field.
Nov 29, 2022
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Mehdi Khalaji
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Tenacity of Young Iranians in the Protest Movement
Despite the regime's crackdown, Iranian protestors are showing unprecedented resilience and unity in their demands, making the international community's next steps even more crucial.
Nov 29, 2022
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Haleh Esfandiari
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