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Brief Analysis
Sudani’s Wobbly Balancing Act Between Tehran and Washington
Although it is still too early to write the prime minister off as an Iranian lackey, he is on a familiar trajectory for Iraqi governments: doing the minimum necessary to prevent deterioration with Washington while satisfying the voracious demands of his Iran-backed partners.
Jan 27, 2023
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David Schenker
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Akram Kaabi’s Visit to Moscow and Its Aftermath
Russia now feels emboldened to openly host Iraqi "resistance" leaders with no government role—including designated terrorists—to discuss their shared interest in confronting the West and working together in Syria and Iraq.
Jan 27, 2023
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Erik Yavorsky
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Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Egypt’s Economic Freefall Provides an Opening for U.S. Assistance—and Leverage
Given the tall task of managing public dissent and meeting IMF reform requirements without angering his military base, President Sisi may be more willing to shift his problematic stances on human rights and foreign policy.
Jan 26, 2023
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Ben Fishman
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Restructuring Iraqi National Security Institutions in Sudani’s Government
Structural reforms in Iraq’s security services are difficult but necessary to implement to bolster the country’s national security.
Jan 25, 2023
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Fawzi al-Zubaidi
Video
Brief Analysis
Civil Society in Tunisia: Resetting Western Policy Expectations
Three experts discuss the relevance and focus of Western efforts to nurture reform in post-revolutionary Tunisia amid recent democratic backsliding by President Saied.
Jan 25, 2023
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Sabina Henneberg
Amy Hawthorne
Jean-Louis Romanet Perroux
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
France’s Balancing Act: Mending Relations and Ending Moroccan Visa Restrictions
A recently announced visa decision and a presidential visit to Rabat indicate France’s eagerness to regain its diplomatic position in the region.
Jan 25, 2023
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Frances McDonough
Sabina Henneberg
Articles & Testimony
When Will Turkey Ratify Sweden and Finland’s NATO Accession?
The key to an “F-16s for NATO expansion” agreement lies in the sequencing, with President Biden facing congressional opposition and President Erdogan dealing with economic and election challenges.
Jan 25, 2023
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
The UNIFIL Follies Turn Deadly on the Israel-Lebanon Border
The recent murder of an Irish peacekeeper has once again exposed the international mission as a costly failure—one that should be drastically curtailed come renewal time this summer.
Jan 24, 2023
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David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Assessing CENTCOM’s Posture in 2023
To meet ambitious goals with reduced resources, the U.S. military and its regional partners will need to continue expanding their focus on unmanned systems, artificial intelligence, agile combat employment, and integrated air defense.
Jan 24, 2023
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Nathan P. Olsen
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Transnational Muqawama Show Disapproval Via Warithuun Attack on al-Tanf
With probable IRGC-QF acquiescence, a militia facade group struck U.S. targets in Syria to register its defiance against a possible extension of the U.S. presence in Iraq.
Jan 24, 2023
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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
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Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Civil Society in Tunisia:
Resetting Expectations
Reduced U.S. support need not mean abandoning Tunisians or democratization, and can center on directing limited funds more intentionally.
Jan 23, 2023
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Sabina Henneberg
Brief Analysis
After Ukraine: Russia’s Potential Military and Nuclear Compensation to Iran
Despite the obstacles to expanded cooperation, Russian aid could help Tehran promote repression at home and instability abroad, so the United States and its allies should seek to deter such collaboration wherever possible.
Jan 20, 2023
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Louis Dugit-Gros
Anna Borshchevskaya
Michael Eisenstadt
Farzin Nadimi
Henry Rome
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Forty Percent of Saudis and Emiratis Still Accept Israeli Contacts, Even Under Netanyahu
Approval for contacts with Israelis remained steady through 2022, even as hesitancy on Abraham Accords continued.
Jan 19, 2023
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David Pollock
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
What Do Iran’s Protests Mean for Iraq and the Kurdistan Region?
Internal instability in Iran may cause significant religious, economic, and political repercussions across the border in Iraq.
Jan 17, 2023
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Zubir R. Ahmed
Nawzad Shukri
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militia Spokesmen Reflect on Sudani Inviting U.S. Forces to Remain
Asaib Ahl al-Haq is signaling pragmatism, while Kataib Hezbollah is contorting its arguments to allow it to play along, albeit without explicitly accepting a U.S. military presence.
Jan 17, 2023
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Ameer al-Kaabi
Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
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Militia Spotlight
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Between the Lines: Understanding the Houthi Employment Code of Conduct
Since the failure of international efforts to renew the ceasefire in Yemen this past November, the Houthi movement has—with increasing speed—spread its influence and dominance over the men and women living under its control.
Jan 15, 2023
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Laila Lutf Al-Thawr
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iranian Daughters: Struggling for the Rights Their Mothers Lost in the Revolution
Activists fighting for women's rights in Iran today have learned from their predecessors' mistakes and are more determined than ever to achieve gender equality.
Jan 13, 2023
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Sepideh Zamani
Articles & Testimony
Repeating the Past or Following Precedent? Contextualising the Taliban 2.0’s Governance of Women
A twenty-first-century return to the group’s past gender apartheid is a distinct possibility, potentially threatening Afghan women’s rights, the survival of vulnerable ethnic groups, and the country’s broader security and prosperity.
Jan 12, 2023
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Gina Vale
Devorah Margolin
Farkhondeh Akbari
Brief Analysis
Iran’s New Budget Perpetuates Economic Challenges
The president is proposing de facto cuts to salaries and subsidies as well as more money for the military, while avoiding the tough reforms Iran’s economy needs.
Jan 12, 2023
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Henry Rome
Articles & Testimony
Israel’s Power Shift: To Bibi, or Not to Bibi
Once Netanyahu finds a way out of his legal troubles, he stands a realistic chance of balancing the demands of his most militant coalition partners with the expectations of the wider Israeli, Arab, and international community.
Jan 12, 2023
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David Pollock
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