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Brief Analysis
South Asia:
New Refuge for Middle East–Style Radical Terrorists
The two recent plane hijackings in South Asia highlighted the growth there of terrorism and radical Islam. Whereas for decades Islamist and radical terrorism came out of the Middle East, the locus of such operations is shifting to South Asia. The most obvious problem is Afghanistan, a country unwilling and
Feb 11, 2000
Brief Analysis
Implications of Turkey's Anti-Hizbullah Operation
The recent crackdown on "Turkish Hizbullah" has led to turmoil among Turkey's Islamists. Rather than provoking widespread fears of increased terrorism, the unveiling of a Hizbullah threat has created a context for another confrontation between the Turkish army and Turkey's legal pro-Islamist party, Fazilet. This clash has cast a political
Feb 9, 2000
Brief Analysis
Jordan under Abdullah:
A One-Year Review
A key question regarding this half-British, largely American-reared monarch is how "Americanized" he is. He certainly has American tastes in entertainment (U.S. sitcoms) and pastimes (arcade video games). More importantly, he evinces more interest in 21st century issues like globalization and the need for sustained market reform than in 20th
Feb 8, 2000
◆
Jeffrey Goldberg
Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Democracy and the Palestinian Authority:
Is Good Governance Essential for Peace?
On January 27, 2000, David Schenker, a research fellow at The Washington Institute and author of Palestinian Democracy and Governance: An Appraisal of the Legislative Council, and Khalil Shikaki, of the Center for Palestine Research and Studies (CPRS) and editor of al-Siyasa al-Filastiniyya (Quarterly Journal of Palestine Policy), addressed the
Feb 4, 2000
◆
David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Jordan's Economy under Abdullah:
One Year On
After leaving Davos as one of the stars of the World Economic Forum this week, King Abdullah returns to a country that, in 1999, registered its fourth negative real growth rate in a row. Indeed, from the beginning of his rule, Jordan's new monarch has recognized that confronting Jordan's deep
Feb 3, 2000
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Robert Satloff
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
A Background to Iran's Forthcoming Majlis Elections
Speaking about Iran at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on January 30, U.S. secretary of state Madeleine Albright commented, "There is an attempt to probe a possibility of dialogue and we are waiting to see what happens in the Majlis [Parliament] election next month." What are the procedures
Feb 2, 2000
The Middle East in Transition
Feb 1, 2000
In-Depth Reports
Between Damascus and Jerusalem:
Lebanon and Middle East Peace (2nd ed.)
It has become customary to speak of Israel-Syria peace negotiations as encompassing a Lebanese component. The interplay between Syria's hegemonic ambitions and Israel's security interests will dominate and determine Lebanon's place in whatever peace equation ultimately unfolds. In that context, there are objective justifications for Lebanon's ancillary status. But a
Feb 1, 2000
Articles & Testimony
Sidebar:
Arab-Israeli Peace Process
The following is a sidebar to Dr. Satloff's article "The Next Turbulent Zone." The election of Ehud Barak fueled expectations of speedy success in the peace process, on both the Palestinian-Israeli track and the Syrian/Lebanese-Israeli track. Yet while progress is likely, a final resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict is not
Feb 1, 2000
◆
Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Sidebar:
Saddam's Shakiness
The following is a sidebar to Dr. Satloff's article "The Next Turbulent Zone." Given current trends, Iraq will emerge as the foremost national security albatross around the neck of the next administration. Since the Clinton administration's welcome, if belated, 1998 declaration of "regime change" as a key goal in Iraq
Feb 1, 2000
◆
Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Sidebar:
Iran's Upheaval
The following is a sidebar to Dr. Satloff's article "The Next Turbulent Zone." Iran's great internal debate over its future, as evidenced in recent confrontations between demonstrating students and police, is likely to sharpen and deepen in the next five years. The two protagonists here are not, as often reported
Feb 1, 2000
◆
Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Syria's Economy:
Prospects for Peace, Aid, and Market Reform
DANIELA GRESSANI In many ways, Syria's economy is not very different from that of other countries in the region. Oil is important, accounting for 60 percent of exports. Agriculture is more important than might be expected on the basis of natural endowment: it contributes about 20 percent of the gross
Jan 31, 2000
◆
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Multilaterals:
Status and Prospects
On February 1, the multilateral track of the Middle East peace process is scheduled to resume in Moscow with the first meeting of the Steering Committee since May 1995. In the wake of Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak's election last summer, there was widespread expectation that the multilateral talks would
Jan 28, 2000
Brief Analysis
Syria's Critique of the U.S. Draft Treaty:
A Textual Analysis
Syria-Israel negotiations are on hold, but Israelis and Syrians have found a way to negotiate through third parties--the media. Two weeks ago, Israel leaked the U.S. draft text of a proposed peace treaty, complete with a timeline for implementation, in the Israeli daily Ha'aretz. Over the last ten days, a
Jan 27, 2000
◆
Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Crucial Tests Await New Saudi Oil Council
This week the major oil companies are expected to announce big increases in profits, a reflection of the current high oil prices which last week soared to their highest level since the 1991 Gulf War. But apart from benefiting shareholders and helping fill the depleted financial coffers of Middle Eastern
Jan 24, 2000
◆
Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
The U.S. Draft Treaty for Syria-Israel Peace:
A Textual Analysis
After more than a week of negotiations in Shepherdstown, W.Va., the "working draft" of the Syria-Israel peace treaty reported in yesterday's Ha'aretz notes only one area of seemingly irreconcilable difference between the two parties--over the scope of the demilitarized zone separating the two sides. As currently worded, the text neither
Jan 14, 2000
◆
Robert Satloff
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Russia Returns to the Middle East Scene?
A good indicator of Russia's role in the Middle East is that Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak had no plans to return to Israel to be present for Boris Yeltsin's visit there even before Yeltsin stepped down as Russian president. The Israeli leader preferred to remain in the United States
Jan 11, 2000
Brief Analysis
Europe's Critical Dialogue with Iran:
An Assessment
Iranian foreign minister Kamal Kharrazi arrived in London on Sunday to start a new initiative to break Iran further out of isolation. Europe has sought to engage Iran as the best way to promote Iranian moderation and reform. With Iran's parliamentary elections approaching next month, there will almost certainly be
Jan 10, 2000
Brief Analysis
A Syria-Israel Summit:
Prospects for Peace
RAGHIDA DERGHAM Peace for Syria is not a tactical move. Pursuing a breakthrough is now declared Syrian policy, and Damascus does not back down from its declared policy. Today, Syria is giving the logic of negotiation precedence over the logic of resistance in its quest to liberate the Golan Heights
Jan 7, 2000
Brief Analysis
The South Lebanon Army and Syria-Israel Talks
While Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Syrian Foreign Minister Faruq al-Shara are talking peace at Shepherdstown, the fighting in south Lebanon still goes on. Last time the two leaders met in Washington in December, the party was almost spoiled after a stray shell fired by South Lebanese Army (SLA)
Jan 6, 2000
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