All Policy Analysis by Hanin Ghaddar

Border security is chiefly a matter of state sovereignty, so the international community must pressure Lebanese officials to take essential political and security steps even before attempting to negotiate ceasefire terms with Israel.

Iran’s proxy faces steep challenges on the leadership and military fronts, and the international community can now act vigorously to free Lebanon from its grip.

The group must decide between walking back its threat to northern Israel or risking the loss of its advanced missile capabilities, which Iran regards as a crucial insurance policy.

Israeli and Lebanese experts join two former U.S. officials to discuss what each party was thinking before, during, and after this weekend’s exchange of strikes—and whether war in the north has become inevitable regardless of near-term de-escalation.

Regardless of how the group responds to Israel’s latest leadership strike, its desperation to stop the bleeding will create big diplomatic opportunities for the United States and its partners—if done right.

A former Israeli military planner joins three experts to discuss each side’s current calculus and the U.S. policy implications if they opt for war or a truce.

If Hezbollah’s conflict with Israel widens, the group could use its large missile and drone arsenal to attack Cyprus, the allied military presence based there, and a wide array of shipping and energy assets in the East Mediterranean.

Most Lebanese Sunnis have resisted the MB’s mobilization so far, but this sentiment could shift quickly due to pressures from the Gaza war, the economic crisis, the local political vacuum, and the inroads being made by Hamas and Hezbollah.

A regularly updated visual tracker of northern border attacks by Hezbollah, the IDF, and Palestinian groups during the Hamas-Israel war.

The U.S.-Israel rift over how to handle southern Gaza could embolden the Lebanese group to further accelerate its already heightened tempo of operations, though drawing clear deterrent lines could help limit the escalation.

Only a comprehensive initiative aimed at curbing Hezbollah’s influence both within Lebanon and in the region stands a chance of delivering peace for the long term.

Saleh al-Arouri served as a major operative for the group over decades, and his loss will pose challenges for Hamas and Hezbollah alike.

Experts discuss the military and political situation at what appears to be a decisive moment in the war, offering insights on Israel’s calculations, the effects of growing foreign pressure, and the need for further international action to address attacks by Iran’s other regional partners.

Four experts and former officials discuss the evolving military operation against Hamas, the status of the Lebanon front, the political plight of Arab governments, and the steps Israel must consider to balance its goals with growing international pressure.

The Hezbollah leader’s first public remarks on Gaza were cautious in tone and vague on substance, but the group may not stay deterred indefinitely if its political or tactical situation changes.

A former Lebanese journalist shares her experience growing up in Lebanon, her insights on Hezbollah, and her views on how associated threats might evolve amid the Gaza war.

A former senior IDF official joins Lebanese and U.S. experts to discuss whether additional fronts are poised to open in the north, and what Washington is doing to avert this risk.

The group’s latest actions indicate that its strategy for the Gaza war has not changed: using limited and deniable border escalation to distract Israel without fully entering the conflict (for now).

The group might be content with its existing political gains from the conflict, but Washington should still try to shift its calculus given the grave risks of a wider war.

Riyadh won’t lend a helping hand in Lebanon unless Washington takes action on fully implementing the Taif Accord, curbing Captagon smugglers, and reversing Iran and Hezbollah’s takeover of the state.