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Articles & Testimony
'Farewell, Fossil Fuels'? What Oil's Demise Will Do to the World's Leading Economies
The combination of new demand projections, green consumer trends, pandemic-related shifts, and other factors may not spell the end of Middle Eastern oil economies quite yet, but it is the first draft of their obituary.
Sep 15, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Why Moscow Is Quiet on the Israel-UAE Peace Deal
The fact that American rather than Russian mediation helped broker a major Middle East peace agreement is a blow to Putin’s ongoing quest for restored great-power status.
Sep 15, 2020
◆
Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
Kadhimi’s Rolling Reshuffle (Part 2): Protecting Iraq’s Economic Institutions and Borders
As technocrats increasingly fill key government roles, U.S. officials need to help Baghdad withstand the inevitable counterpunch from political and militia factions used to dictating such appointments.
Sep 15, 2020
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
The F-35 Triangle: America, Israel, the United Arab Emirates
Selling the advanced U.S. jet to a foreign government ought to signal the highest confidence in that country’s warfighting capabilities, decisionmaking on the use of force, and commitment to protecting sensitive technology, but the UAE’s record on each of these issues is mixed.
Sep 15, 2020
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Barbara A. Leaf
Dana Stroul
Brief Analysis
Kadhimi’s Rolling Reshuffle (Part 1): Military Command Changes
To strengthen Iraq’s capacity for resisting militia and foreign influence, Washington should keep supporting the campaign to remake the military one commander at a time.
Sep 14, 2020
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Michael Knights
Alex Almeida
Video
Brief Analysis
The UAE-Israel Breakthrough: Bilateral and Regional Implications and U.S. Policy
Former diplomats and experts discuss what steps each party should take after the historic White House signing ceremony, and how to bring the Palestinians and other actors into the fold.
Sep 14, 2020
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Ebtesam al-Ketbi
Dore Gold
Barbara A. Leaf
David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
The Middle East Is Changing. Will Palestinians Be Left Behind?
The Palestinian issue has become far less of a priority for most Arab states, who now tend to see Israel as a bulwark against regional threats and a partner on urgent health, water, and food-security needs.
Sep 13, 2020
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Bahrain Move Toward Israel Risks Domestic Reaction
The announcement of a peace deal between Israel and Bahrain suggests that the Gulf island kingdom has reassessed the danger of opposition from both its majority Shia population and its Sunni community.
Sep 11, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Qatar Strategic Dialogue Offers Opening to End Gulf Rift
The Washington meeting between the United States and Qatar, overlapping with the Israel-UAE signing ceremony on normalization, creates a unique opportunity to resolve the dispute between U.S. allies.
Sep 11, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Qatar’s Media Campaign Against UAE-Israel Deal Reflects a Wider Gulf Rift
In the weeks since U.S., Emirati, and Israeli leaders announced a historic normalization agreement on August 13, Qatari media has leveled major criticism of the deal. Yet the motivations for this criticism seem to reflect direct competition between Qatar and the UAE as much as genuine critique. The direct competition
Sep 10, 2020
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Haisam Hassanein
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
From the ‘Republic of Fear’ to the Militias’ Republic of Terror
In 1992, as I watched the celebrations for the inauguration of al-Tabiqayn Bridge in Baghdad (formerly, al-Qa’id Bridge) on Al-Shabab Television, I turned to my wife and said: “wouldn’t it have been better for us if the cost of this bridge had been spent on better flour for us to
Sep 10, 2020
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Munqith Dagher
Articles & Testimony
China and the United States in the Middle East: Between Dependency and Rivalry
Continuing the status quo—a large American presence, but uncertain American commitment—would be a high-cost, high-risk, low-reward approach.
Sep 10, 2020
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Michael Singh
Articles & Testimony
Here’s How Palestinians Could Benefit from the Diplomatic Deal Between Israel and the United Arab Emirates
Skillful U.S. and Arab diplomacy could use normalization and the accompanying annexation freeze as a base for renewed momentum toward an eventual two-state solution.
Sep 10, 2020
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David Makovsky
Daniel Shapiro
Articles & Testimony
The Russian Way of War in Syria: Threat Perception and Approaches to Counterterrorism
Putin’s Russia and the West have never shared the same goals or threat perceptions regarding terrorism and other regional issues, so Washington should craft its Syria policy accordingly.
Sep 10, 2020
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
The Road Beyond UAE-Israel Normalization
Netanyahu’s strategy of bypassing the intractable Palestinian issue has paid substantial dividends worldwide, but a peace treaty ‘domino effect’ is unlikely in the near term given various calculations in Riyadh and other Arab capitals.
Sep 10, 2020
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Ehud Yaari
Articles & Testimony
Living Long Enough to See Yourself Become the Villain: The Case of Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi
Recent developments in Syria indicate that the jihadi movement is splitting once again, as a prominent ideologue begins to form a third pole at odds with both al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.
Sep 9, 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Independence in Southern Yemen: An STC Perspective
With the failure to implement the Riyadh Agreement, Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council calls for independence as the best means of ensuring south Yemen’s peace and stability.
Sep 8, 2020
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Abdulsalem Mused
Brief Analysis
Russian-Iranian Tensions in Deir al-Zour
To prevent the two rivals from expanding their influence in east Syria, the coalition needs to exploit their simmering disunity, empower its partners on the ground, and establish stronger ties with select tribal and community leaders.
Sep 4, 2020
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Oula A. Alrifai
Ali Alleile
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Egypt’s Nominee for WTO Director-General Is the Technocratic Candidate Needed for Reforms
An impactful global election is on its way amid mounting tensions between the United States and China, with the seat for Director-General of The World Trade Organization (WTO) up for reelection. The last day for its current head—Director-General Roberto Azevedo—was August 31, marking an early end to his term. Geopolitical
Sep 2, 2020
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Sarah Elzeini
Fadel Yacoub
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Israel and the UAE on Iran: Shared Foe, Different Perspectives
Given past developments, the UAE’s and Israel’s recent announcement of normalization in exchange for shelving annexation plans should come as no great surprise, even if the timing was unexpected. There remains, however, frequently understated differences between one aspect of this relationship often assumed to be a common denominator: Jerusalem’s and
Sep 1, 2020
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Danny Citrinowicz
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