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Articles & Testimony
Were Iran and the United States Really ‘On the Brink’? Observations on Gray Zone Conflict
Tehran’s entire modus operandi is designed to pressure Washington and its allies but avoid all-out conflict, and distorting this reality so close to a U.S. election will only hinder an effective policy response.
Sep 27, 2020
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Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
UAE-Israel Peace Is Revealing the Middle East’s Faultlines
Much of the commentary surrounding the deal has focused on what it portends for the Palestinian issue and other Israeli relationships, but it may say just as much about the four rival factions that have crystallized in the region since 2011.
Sep 26, 2020
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Sarah Feuer
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Emerging Abraham Accords: The Challenges of Positive Change
Israel and the UAE have just embarked on a process that, assuming it matures successfully, will soon yield the fruit of full normalization between the two counties. The media coverage of the process has been largely optimistic, occasionally mentioning potential pitfalls regarding annexation and arms sales. Missing from this public
Sep 25, 2020
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Yoel Guzansky
Kobi Michael
Brief Analysis
U.S. Officials to Mediate Israel-Lebanon Maritime Border Talks
Negotiating a dividing line would enable Beirut to fully exploit potential offshore oil and gas reserves.
Sep 25, 2020
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Ehud Yaari
Simon Henderson
Hanin Ghaddar
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
From Khashoggi to Al-Jabri: A Principal Question
Vocal Saudi dissidents have taken up figures like Jamal Khashoggi and Saad al-Jabri as literal and figurative martyrs for their causes, but their depiction ignores both men’s histories working inside the Saudi state. These dissidents expose, therefore, some of the weakness in their messaging, and they may lack the robust
Sep 25, 2020
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Abdullah Alrebh
Brief Analysis
Pushing Back on Iraqi Militias: Weighing U.S. Options
Although halting the escalation of militia attacks on American personnel is crucial, simply evacuating the Baghdad embassy and downscaling the bilateral relationship would allow Iran to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
Sep 25, 2020
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Michael Knights
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
What U.S. Diplomacy for the Kurds in Syria?
Kurds in Syria’s northeastern region face an uncertain and threatening future, especially now that most American forces have withdrawn from the country. A sporadically belligerent Russian military presence, coupled with Turkish aggression against U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, has produced an increasingly precarious situation for Kurds in the area. Even Kurdish civilians
Sep 25, 2020
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John Saleh
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
On the Non-state (Ladaula) in Iraq
One of the most common terms used among Iraqi elites to criticize the current state is the concept of the non-state, or al-ladaula. Anyone closely observing Iraq’s political affairs cannot avoid reading and hearing this word multiple times a day, given its prominent usage on TV debates, Whatsapp chats, local
Sep 25, 2020
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Sardar Aziz
Articles & Testimony
Franco-Turkish Competition Ascendant
Given their sharply diverging views on conflict zones, secularism, and regional spheres of influence, the two states are swiftly becoming NATO’s next diplomatic hotspot.
Sep 23, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
How to Balance Competing Priorities with an F-35 Sale to the UAE
The sale offers strategic opportunities at a time of pivoting U.S. policy, and the concerns raised in Washington and abroad can be addressed through deliberate technical limitations, financing restrictions, offsetting benefits for Israel, and other measures.
Sep 23, 2020
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Christine McVann
Articles & Testimony
Diplomacy Built Israeli-Arab Peace. The Private Sector Will Sustain It.
Bahrain, Israel, and the UAE must now focus on the practical steps required to scale up their relations, including efforts related to civil aviation, banking, tourist sites, and more.
Sep 23, 2020
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Dana Stroul
Brief Analysis
Khamenei Uses Iraq War Anniversary to Reinforce Iranian Steadfastness
Rather than explicitly addressing Washington’s reactivation of sanctions, the Supreme Leader sought to convince domestic listeners that Iran can ‘resist’ external pressures and the latest COVID-19 wave on its own.
Sep 22, 2020
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Omer Carmi
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
A Convergence of Crises for Egypt: Libya, Ethiopia, and Northern Sinai
For what may be the first time in modern Egyptian history, the country is facing three battlefronts simultaneously: the war in Libya with its threat from Turkey, the existential threat of the Grand Renaissance Dam, and the escalation of terrorist operations in the Sinai Peninsula. To the Egyptian regime’s misfortune
Sep 18, 2020
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Maged Atef
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Who Benefits from a U.S. Oil Deal in Northeast Syria?
Upon each of my past arrivals in Syria, I’ve entered into landscapes of rolling hillocks and oil wells. Stippled across the land, some wells toiled slowly while others—rusted and abandoned—lay motionless, languishing along the buckled pavement of northeastern roads leading toward the city of Qamishlo. Reminiscent of the Texas Panhandle
Sep 18, 2020
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Kenneth R. Rosen
Brief Analysis
Britain in Oman: Washington’s Strategic Partner
London is investing heavily in supporting its relationship with Muscat, not least because Omani mediation can often be more effective than its own in fostering regional stability and security.
Sep 18, 2020
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Jonathan Campbell-James
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Washington’s Stance on Syria and Iraq and The Widening Rift with Kurds in Iran
Over the last four years, Kurds in Iran have watched Kurdish communities in Syria and Iraq continue to suffer losses at the hands of hostile forces, disoriented by the turbulent shifts in Washington’s decision-making. It once seemed that the United States would support change in Iran beneficial to the country’s
Sep 17, 2020
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Baraa Sabri
Maps & Graphics
Yemen Matrix: Allies & Adversaries
The Yemen Matrix is a guide to the relationships between the core actors involved in the country’s various conflicts. It is meant to be a starter resource for new analysts, a quick-access volume for policymakers, and a refresher for experts.
Sep 17, 2020
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Elana DeLozier
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Southern Issue in Yemen: Hopes and Challenges
The 2014 National Dialogue Conference allowed for ample discussion of the southern issue in Yemen. Now, all sides must help implement the solutions outlined there and in the more recent Riyadh Agreement to ensure that a just solution to the southern issue is achieved.
Sep 16, 2020
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Ali Said al-Ahmadi
Brief Analysis
How the Abraham Accords Look Forward, Not Back
Close reading of Israel’s agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain shows how their strictly bilateral focus could affect the chances for people-to-people engagement and regional security cooperation, depending on each government's political will.
Sep 16, 2020
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Kadhimi’s Rolling Reshuffle (Part 2): Protecting Iraq’s Economic Institutions and Borders
As technocrats increasingly fill key government roles, U.S. officials need to help Baghdad withstand the inevitable counterpunch from political and militia factions used to dictating such appointments.
Sep 15, 2020
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Michael Knights
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