Policy Analysis

Nassim Taleb used the term “black swan” as a metaphor for unexpected variables that challenge assumptions and approaches. In the span of a short few months, Lebanon has experienced two major “black swan” events, introducing more complexity into an already delicate and difficult political and social climate. The militant, pro-Iranian

Reflecting just how emboldened the Houthis have become, their latest ceasefire document advocates maximalist positions on core issues while demanding that other actors foot the bill for reconstruction, reparations, economic recovery, and virus containment.

As U.S. President Donald Trump announced a state of emergency and France’s Macron declared that his country "is at war," Algerians were still waiting for an address from the recently inaugurated President Abdelmadjid Tebboune. The delay was indicative of Algeria’s particular challenges when dealing with the virus—the North African country

For years, international mediators have insisted that there is no military solution to the war, but it is also time to recognize that there is no diplomatic solution with Khalifa Haftar.

If Kadhimi’s nomination goes through, it would be good news for Iraq, but Washington’s troubled relationship with Baghdad still needs a radical strategic reset.

After years of failed attempts at talks and ceasefires, COVID-19 may be enough to push the Saudis, Houthis, and Yemeni government to the negotiating table.

Leadership does not require serving in the unsustainable role of international policeman, but it does entail American engagement and a sense of responsibility to other countries.

From establishing new provincial headquarters to deploying hundreds of thousands of troops and militia personnel on emergency duty, the Guards are seemingly using the crisis as an opportunity to expand their power at the local level.

The outbreak of coronavirus is just the most recent misfortune for Iraq, which is suffering a complicated political deadlock created by the October 2019 protests against Iraq’s political elites. Iraq’s political leadership has failed to lead the country for the last seventeen years, focusing satisfying the country’s competing political blocs

The pandemic has shut down counterterrorism operations, and the group is relishing the extra breathing room in Iraq.

The Blue-White leader’s former allies have denounced him for caving to Netanyahu, but his conciliatory gesture is a sign of statesmanship, not weakness.

Iran’s coronavirus outbreak has left the government struggling to respond, to the point that the regime has announced the release of 85,000 prisoners to reduce the risk of coronavirus spread in overcrowded prisons. However, this amnesty policy has excluded a significant majority of Iran’s prison population, no less likely to

Since Italy first announced its first confirmed case of coronavirus in late January, the virus has spread throughout the country with unprecedented speed. Today, Italy has become one of the major epicenters of the pandemic as the number of confirmed cases and deaths continues to climb, though restrictive social distancing

The president’s latest statements on OPEC and the possibility of U.S. tariffs are ambiguous, but they suggest his growing exasperation with Moscow and Riyadh.

Since March 13, my family and I have been locked at home in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), ordering all supplies and groceries via deliveries provided by the local supermarkets. As my neighbor Mr. Namiq, a public servant, put it: “Public daily routine has gotten complicated. [We have] a

The rebel administration in Idlib and the Kurdish-led government in the northeast have been more proactive and transparent than the Assad regime, but their populations still need urgent, direct international aid—without the UN’s imprimatur if necessary.

Both governments have gone “crazy” in the fast-moving price war, but the White House is apparently divided on who to blame and how much to get involved.

Now that Hezbollah realizes its efforts to hide virus cases won’t work anymore, Washington should urge Beirut to put LAF medical and border-control personnel to work without resorting to a full state of emergency.

Washington can facilitate aid without fundamentally altering the sanctions infrastructure, in part by clarifying the rules on allowable humanitarian trade, expanded NGO activities, and Tehran’s existing financial options.

After five years of fighting in Yemen, Riyadh has been left to deal with the conflict largely on its own, but the Gulf states will need to band together again if they hope to facilitate another transition of the sort seen in 2011.