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Articles & Testimony
How Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia’s Message Framing Primed Its Members to Become Recruits for the Islamic State
By the time IS came to the fore in Iraq and Syria, many of its themes and activities were already second nature to Tunisian jihadis who had heard similar messaging at home.
Mar 19, 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iran and the U.S. Elections: A Chance to Meddle?
With U.S. national elections in November, would Iran try to intervene in an attempt to bring about “regime change” in Washington? No doubt, Iran would like to see President Trump defeated; he not only re-instituted U.S. economic sanctions against Iran but forced many foreign companies to do the same, crippling
Mar 18, 2020
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Thomas Parker
Brief Analysis
Giving Iraq’s Next Prime Minister Space to Succeed
As the next well-qualified, Iraqi-chosen candidate navigates the delicate ratification process, Washington can avoid disrupting his efforts by temporarily ignoring militia provocations and providing quiet, symbolic support where needed.
Mar 17, 2020
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Michael Knights
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Migrants Likely to Remain Pawns in Turkey-EU Relations for Years to Come
With the spread of coronavirus restricting travel, European leaders are meeting virtually with Ankara this week in an attempt to resuscitate and potentially fine-tune a flawed migration deal from 2016, which has now effectively collapsed. This will come as the second attempt in less than a month to reach an
Mar 17, 2020
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Anthony Skinner
Brief Analysis
Implications of the Saudi Corruption Arrests
The latest crackdown appears to have targeted senior defense and interior officials, spurring speculation that they are linked to previously detained princes rumored to be plotting a coup.
Mar 16, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
How the U.S. Can Help Ease Idlib’s Catastrophe
Washington needs to cooperate with Europe on forcing Damascus into serious political negotiations, help Turkey create a no-fly zone, and stop Russia and China from using their veto power at the UN.
Mar 14, 2020
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Oula A. Alrifai
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Most Jerusalem Palestinians Want Neither Israeli Rule nor Uprising Against It, as Silwan Neighborhood Stands Out for More Militant Views
The Bellwether Citizenship Question–Palestine Now Trumps Israel: East Jerusalem’s 330,000 Palestinian legal residents, though overwhelmingly not Israeli citizens, have many practical advantages over their West Bank neighbors. Only the former have the right to work, study, and travel freely inside Israel, and to participate in Israel’s extensive social welfare system
Mar 13, 2020
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David Pollock
Articles & Testimony
How the U.S. Can Stop the Surge of Deadly Rocket Attacks in Iraq
Congress and the Trump administration should privately agree to some ground rules for timing deterrent strikes on truly high-value targets, while quietly deploying more force-protection assets like Patriot missiles.
Mar 13, 2020
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Michael Knights
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Trump's 'Deal of the Century' and Why it Still Matters
This month marks the anniversary of the pivotal Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty, the first agreement of its kind. The two nations have enjoyed diplomatic relations since the signing of the treaty over 40 years ago. Through trials and challenges, the agreement has held and offers hope in a time where peace
Mar 13, 2020
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Dalia Ziada
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Ahwazi Children in Iran: Starving, Abused, and Forced To Work
Iran has been hit hard by the COVID-19 outbreak, with more than 11,364 confirmed cases. While Iran struggles to contain the virus, its healthcare system has become severely stressed and public health officials have done little to ease public anxiety. And as the coronavirus epidemic continues to worsen, vulnerable populations
Mar 13, 2020
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Rahim Hamid
Yasser Assadi
Brief Analysis
Iraq’s Health, Financial, and Security Crises Sharpen the Urgency of Forming a Government
Allawi’s cabinet failure may indicate growing Iraqi agency at Iran’s expense, but the path toward political stability remains tortuous and foggy.
Mar 13, 2020
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Bilal Wahab
Brief Analysis
The Coronavirus in Iran (Part 2): Regime Culpability and Resiliency
Even as their lack of transparency worsens the public health crisis, the Supreme Leader and other officials have systematically gutted any civil society elements capable of organizing substantial opposition to such policies.
Mar 12, 2020
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Mehdi Khalaji
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Arab Narratives of The Dead Sea Scrolls: Between Abrahamic Tolerance and Conspiracy
In early 1947, a Bedouin shepherd named Muhammad Ta’amirah threw a rock into an opening on the side of a cliff near Qumran on the northwestern shore of the Dead Sea and heard a clay pot shatter. The next day, the shepherd returned with some of his friends and climbed
Mar 11, 2020
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Emad Bouzo
Articles & Testimony
How Is the U.S. Targeted Killing of Qassem Soleimani Likely to Affect Hezbollah’s International Activities and Operations?
Revelations from a recent terrorism trial suggest that the group will be patient in avenging his death, but could eventually use the preoperational surveillance it regularly collects to carry out an attack.
Mar 11, 2020
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
The Crisis in Idlib
Given the near-certainty that conflict will erupt again in northwest Syria, the United States should start planning for how it might leverage that next outbreak to push the parties toward a political process.
Mar 11, 2020
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Dana Stroul
Articles & Testimony
Russia and Saudis in a Knife Fight Over Oil—But We May Be the Victims
The duration and effects of the showdown may come down to price fluctuations and budgetary requirements in Moscow and Riyadh, but the U.S. shale industry will likely suffer either way.
Mar 10, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
As Israel’s Kingmaker Gets Off the Fence, Gantz Gets a Boost
Although Benny Gantz’s party lost the head-to-head battle, Avigdor Liberman’s favorable influence on the coalition math has left the general in a stronger position—and taken some diplomatic weight off the Trump administration’s shoulders.
Mar 9, 2020
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Making Sense of the Saudi Rumors: A Guide to Royal Family Politics
Reports of royal arrests, a possible coup plot, and a brewing oil price war suggest that the kingdom is facing another period of considerable political tension.
Mar 9, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
The Coronavirus in Iran (Part 1): Clerical Factors
The clergy’s ambitions for global Shia revolution made the city of Qom uniquely vulnerable to the disease, and their resistance to modern medical science weakened the state’s ability to combat its spread.
Mar 9, 2020
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Mehdi Khalaji
Turkey’s Imperial Foreign Policy: Vision vs. Reality
A deep dive into the evolution of Erdogan’s regional approach and how it informs the current crises in Syria and other hotspots.
Mar 6, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
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