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Turkey’s Imperial Foreign Policy: Vision vs. Reality
A deep dive into the evolution of Erdogan’s regional approach and how it informs the current crises in Syria and other hotspots.
Mar 6, 2020
◆
Soner Cagaptay
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Palestinian Public Resigned to Israel’s Election Outcome, Looks to Other Arabs Instead for Next Steps
Palestinians watching Israel’s election this week are likely to find their low expectations fulfilled. The vote produced yet another inconclusive result, with the incumbent prime minister’s Likud Party narrowly in the lead but unable to muster a majority governing coalition with its existing right-wing and religious allies. The centrist Blue
Mar 6, 2020
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David Pollock
Articles & Testimony
The Shia vs. the ‘Shia Crescent’
Whether by force or politics, Iran desperately needs to reconsolidate power among Shia constituencies throughout the region, but this challenge may prove insurmountable given current public sentiment in Iraq and Lebanon.
Mar 5, 2020
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Hanin Ghaddar
Fikra Forum
The Response of Israel's Temporary Government to the Challenge of Coronavirus
The first signs of the coronavirus epidemic came just two weeks before Israel’s third election, when fourteen Israelis were quarantined for two weeks on the Diamond Princess cruise ship off the coast of Japan. For Israel’s politicians, the virus gave them the excuse to bombard the electorate with news of
Mar 5, 2020
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Yoel Donchin
Brief Analysis
A New Erdogan-Putin Deal in Idlib May Help—For Now
Turkey, Russia, and Washington have compelling reasons to welcome a new ceasefire agreement, however imperfect, but they still need to address the longer-term dangers posed by the Assad regime’s murderously maximalist strategy.
Mar 4, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
IAEA Reports Renew Questions About Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions
U.S. officials have ample grounds to reinvigorate diplomatic pressure after the world’s nuclear watchdog accused Iran of being uncooperative, but they need to focus on the right questions.
Mar 4, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Video
Brief Analysis
The IRGC Post-Soleimani: Political and Security Implications at Home and Abroad
Three leading Iran scholars explore how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the broader regime will adapt their policies following the death of the seminal Qods Force commander.
Mar 3, 2020
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Ariane Tabatabai
Mehdi Khalaji
Farzin Nadimi
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Syrian Battlefields Divide Adversaries; Lucrative Border Crossings Bring Them Together
Despite the collapse of the Syrian economy due to the ongoing war that has raged for years, Syria’s war economy benefits those known as “war profiteers,” who exploit the war, siege, and mass poverty to amass vast resources. These profiteers operate via border crossings that connect regions in conflict, which
Mar 3, 2020
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Ishtar Al Shami
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah Has a New Strategy to Survive Lebanon’s Financial Crisis
Unless Washington and its allies respond to the protestors’ legitimate demands for reform, the group will survive through measures such as expanding its smuggling activity, promoting its financial institutions, and selectively scapegoating corrupt politicians.
Mar 2, 2020
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Hanin Ghaddar
Video
Brief Analysis
Inside the DHS Prevention and Protection Mission Addressing Targeted Violence and Terrorism
A senior Department of Homeland Security official discusses how the government is dealing with white supremacist and anti-Semitic attacks, continued threats from terrorist groups in the Middle East, and other challenges.
Mar 2, 2020
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Elizabeth Neumann
◆
Counterterrorism Lecture Series
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
An Alternative Peace Plan
The disenchanted response of much of the Arab world to U.S. President Trump’s recently announced Peace Proposal has highlighted the serious need for alternative visions of a peace process, especially from Palestinians. And as an international community, we need to shake the foundations of this conflict to find peace. The
Mar 2, 2020
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Mohammed Dajani
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Consensus Politics and Democracy in Tunisia: Challenges for Political Reform
On January 14, Tunisia marked the ninth anniversary of the revolution that overthrew the regime of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Yet this year’s anniversary took place amid a tense social and political atmosphere, made even more strained by Tunisia’s fragile economy. Although Tunisian citizens now enjoy freedom of expression
Mar 2, 2020
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Maher Al-Qudurat
Brief Analysis
Israel’s Electoral Marathon: Coalition Scenarios and Policy Implications
Although another abortive government formation process is possible, the main players could assemble an assortment of coalitions that differ widely in their approach to West Bank annexation and other issues.
Feb 28, 2020
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David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
‘Fighters Without Borders’: Forecasting New Trends in Iran Threat Network Foreign Operations Tradecraft
To hide its fingerprints on future attacks against U.S. interests, the regime is focusing on its regional 'Shia Liberation Army' and potentially seeking to radicalize lone actors.
Feb 27, 2020
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Matthew Levitt
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Search for Extremism: Deploying the Redirect Method
Results from a new terrorism prevention project in the United States show how targeted online advertising tools can be used to undermine white supremacism and Islamist-inspired extremism.
Feb 27, 2020
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Ryan Greer
Vidhya Ramalingam
Brief Analysis
Sacked Saudi Energy Minister Returns to Cabinet
Khalid al-Falih’s appointment to a new investment role suggests that the kingdom’s Vision 2030 economic transformation project needs to be reinvigorated.
Feb 26, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
The Middle East’s Future of Perpetual Pandemics
If outbreaks like the coronavirus shift from ‘black swan’ events to regular occurrences, globalization trends in the region may reverse, with sobering consequences.
Feb 26, 2020
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Michael Knights
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Palestinian Majority Rejects Two-State Solution, But Backs Tactical Compromises
In between the Trump peace plan’s release on January 28 and Israel’s March 2 election, new survey data shows that most Palestinian respondents now say they prefer “regaining all of historical Palestine” over permanent peace with Israel. Yet majorities in both the West Bank and Gaza voice much more pragmatic
Feb 25, 2020
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David Pollock
In-Depth Reports
Reading Trump in Tehran
A week after Donald Trump was elected president in November 2016, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei played coy, remarking, “I have no judgment on the American election...[Both parties have been] naughty toward us.” Of course, his true reaction was far more complex. On one hand, he saw in the president-elect—who
Feb 23, 2020
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Mehdi Khalaji
Articles & Testimony
The Problem with Trump’s Middle East Peace Plan
The administration seemingly cannot decide if its plan is an opening gambit to trigger a compromise or a fait accompli that precludes one.
Feb 23, 2020
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Dennis Ross
David Makovsky
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