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Brief Analysis
Iran Seems Prepared for Major—But Measured—Escalation in the Gulf
The latest round of shipping attacks could be another notch in Tehran’s controlled military response to U.S. pressure, and bolder escalatory actions should be expected given the bleak outlook for negotiations.
Jun 14, 2019
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
East Mediterranean Energy and Middle East Peace
The slow but steady progress in developing offshore gas fields is transforming local economies and could underpin U.S. peace plans.
Jun 13, 2019
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Oil Prices Up on Tanker Attacks, But Long-Term Trend Looks Down
Ultimately, sabotage operations in the Gulf may prove to be less impactful than Russian engagement with OPEC, a global economic slowdown, and other geopolitical factors.
Jun 13, 2019
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Houthi Messaging May Hint at a Targeting Pattern
The Yemeni group appears to select targets directly inspired by its principal complaints, potentially helping security officials protect against future attacks while negotiators promote overall de-escalation.
Jun 13, 2019
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Elana DeLozier
Brief Analysis
Lebanon and Israel Are Set to Negotiate: What’s at Stake?
Although Hezbollah and its allies might use the upcoming talks as a mere stalling tactic, negotiators will still have opportunities to exploit the group’s domestic vulnerabilities.
Jun 12, 2019
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Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
What to Expect from the U.S.-Russia Meeting in Jerusalem
Ultimately, no deal is better than a bad deal, and Moscow’s track record in Syria suggests it is both unable and unwilling to keep Iran out.
Jun 12, 2019
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Anna Borshchevskaya
In-Depth Reports
Lebanon: Future Leadership of the State and the State Within
Sudden Succession Essay Series
The Taif Accord, which ended Lebanon’s civil war almost three decades ago, stipulated that the country’s president be Christian, the prime minister be Sunni, and the parliament speaker be Shia. Today, two of these figures—President Michel Aoun and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri—are in their eighties, and both demonstrate sympathy for Hezbollah, the Shia militia and party that serves as a national power broker.
Jun 11, 2019
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Hanin Ghaddar
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Sudden Succession Essay Series
Brief Analysis
The Race for Istanbul: Erdogan’s Plan A and B
Although massive state resources have been mobilized against Imamoglu, the opposition candidate has taken up the mantle of the underdog who could challenge the status quo nationally, just as Erdogan himself did two decades ago.
Jun 10, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
The Face-Off Over Gulf Arms Sales: ‘Emergency’ or False Alarm?
As Congress questions whether certain arms sales merit emergency treatment, the White House may have opened a Pandora’s box of long-term consequences for legislative oversight, Gulf relations, and defense profits.
Jun 10, 2019
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Dana Stroul
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
An Alternative Quranic Approach to the New Palestinian Curriculum
In one of its commanding verses, the Holy Quran calls upon the believers to pray to God to advance them in knowledge, "Say, My Lord, grant me more knowledge" (20:114). In late 2018, the Palestinian Authority (PA) issued new curriculum in its first revision of Palestinian textbooks since 2000. In
Jun 10, 2019
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Mohammed Dajani
Marcus Sheff
In-Depth Reports
Erdogan's Empire: Turkey and the Politics of the Middle East
The president has sought to restore Turkey's Ottoman-era reach and break ranks with traditional Western allies, but such an approach carries heavy risk of isolation, strategic miscalculation, and lost opportunities for the Turkish people.
Jun 10, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Europe Has Not Faced Up to the Threat of Hizbollah
Britain's recent decision to designate the entire group as a terrorist entity was a step in the right direction, but now the EU needs to follow suit.
Jun 9, 2019
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Ramadan Soap Operas Contradict Sisi’s Outreach to Israel
Despite Egypt’s warming relations with the Israeli government, the country’s airwaves and movie theaters are still rife with bellicose and anti-Semitic content.
Jun 7, 2019
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Haisam Hassanein
Articles & Testimony
U.S. Warns Sudan—and Perhaps the Saudis—About Cracking Down on Protesters
As international players compete to ease or exploit the crisis, Washington is seemingly pressuring Riyadh to end its support for brutal warlords like General Dagalo.
Jun 6, 2019
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Reshuffling Iraqi Generals: Who Benefits?
Three top commanders have been replaced in northern areas where Iran-backed militias are trying to outmuscle the regular security forces. Washington should find out why.
Jun 6, 2019
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Michael Knights
Alex Almeida
Articles & Testimony
After the Netanyahu Fail, What Is Trump’s Israel-Palestine Solution? Let Others Pick Up the Pieces
Other countries have insulated Washington from the ramifications of damaging policy choices and helped maintain stability, but this safety net may not survive another fall.
May 31, 2019
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Neri Zilber
Articles & Testimony
Netanyahu's Government Fail Should Postpone Trump's Middle East Peace Plan. That's a Good Thing.
Palestinians heaved a sigh of relief when they saw Israel would hold new elections, and the United States would have more time to do the diplomatic work needed.
May 31, 2019
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Ghaith al-Omari
Brief Analysis
Israel’s Election Redo: Implications for the Trump Peace Plan
The U.S. and Israeli electoral calendars will likely impede any grand peace plan for the foreseeable future, so the administration should instead focus on immediate stabilization measures leading up to and during the Bahrain economic conference.
May 31, 2019
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David Makovsky
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
How Displaced Syrians Navigate Their Status in Turkey
While Syrian refugees in Turkey often enjoy far better conditions than their compatriots in Arab countries, the majority of Syrians in Turkey—both within and outside of the country’s refugee camps—face difficulties when it comes to employment, residency rights, integration, and movement between Turkish provinces. Despite these challenges, the prospect of
May 31, 2019
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Omar Kush
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
After Arson in Kirkuk Against Kurdish Farmers, Kurdish Parties Remain Divided
With the tensions between Washington and Tehran, a potentially dangerous conflict in Iraq—ethnic tensions are simmering between Kurds and Arabs in the country’s disputed territories, especially in the multiethnic province of Kirkuk. In the past few weeks, reports from Kurdish news sources allegedly indicate that Arab actors have set hundreds
May 31, 2019
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Yerevan Saeed
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