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Brief Analysis
From War to Peace in the Middle East? Observations from a Regional Tour
The Washington Institute’s executive director reflects on the feasibility of the Biden administration’s current diplomatic plans in the region, based in part on what local officials said during his recent group trip to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and the PA.
Feb 23, 2024
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Robert Satloff
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Hadi al-Ameri’s Bad(r) Month
The Badr Organization leader has suffered bruising blows from other Iran-backed militias seeking to exploit the group's internal dysfunction and divisions.
Feb 21, 2024
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Ameer al-Kaabi
Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
◆
Militia Spotlight
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Tunisia at the Crossroads: What Role for the United States in a Multipolar World?
The United States, in recognizing the limits of its traditional “bloc-building” approach, faces the imperative to adapt to a multipolar reality. Embracing multipolarity as a fundamental principle of its foreign policy could pave the way for more flexible and effective international engagements.
Feb 20, 2024
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Ghazi Ben Ahmed
Articles & Testimony
How Turkey Moved East
Once Washington comes to grips with Erdogan’s “Anatolian” foreign policy, it will have a better chance of steering the relationship in ways that support U.S. interests without unduly boosting Russia and other adversaries.
Feb 19, 2024
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
The EU’s New Red Sea Naval Mission: Implications and Challenges
The operation is a sign of Europe’s willingness to take action against the current instability, though significant work is needed to coordinate with existing initiatives and convince regional officials of the mission’s usefulness.
Feb 16, 2024
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Selin Uysal
Articles & Testimony
Without Enforcement, Talk of Two States Is Hollow
Most Israelis would support a deal if they were sure it would bring them security, but their current skepticism is based on real and urgent concerns about demilitarization given their past experience with Gaza and Lebanon.
Feb 16, 2024
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David Makovsky
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Taking Advantage of a Window of Opportunity in the KRG-Baghdad Gas Standoff
By outlining a strategy in the north of Iraq, a vision regarding reconciliation and a constructive settlement of differences between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Federal Government of Iraq in relation to the management of energy resources in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq can emerge.
Feb 16, 2024
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Muhammed Abed Mazeel al-Aboudi
Articles & Testimony
Libya’s Armed Group Catch-22
Because the government ceded too much authority to local militias and tribal intermediaries, no one can dismantle them without risking their lives.
Feb 15, 2024
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Ben Fishman
Articles & Testimony
Mideast Failure Leads Biden Back to Trump Policies
The administration has reversed its reversals on certain issues, signaling a more comprehensive approach toward the Houthis, Iraqi militias, Iran sanctions, and more.
Feb 14, 2024
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David Schenker
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
AAH Terrorist Planner Adnan Fayhan Takes Over as Babil Governor
A militia figure implicated in the 2007 murder-kidnapping of five Americans in Karbala is now the governor of an Iraqi province.
Feb 12, 2024
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Michael Knights
Ameer al-Kaabi
Hamdi Malik
◆
Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Sinwar, Mashal, and Israel’s Dilemma for the “Day After”
The long-term political struggle against Hamas will be just as challenging for Israel as the current military campaign.
Feb 9, 2024
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Neomi Neumann
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Italy-Africa Summit 2024: A Facade of Partnership?
While Rome is attempting to position itself to serve as a gateway into European markets for natural gas from Africa, the “Mattei Plan” is opaque about what Africa would gain from this plan.
Feb 9, 2024
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Ghazi Ben Ahmed
Andrea Cellino
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Islamic State's Response to October 7
The Islamic State’s response to October 7 has centered on shifting their messaging to argue that attacks on targets within IS’ pre-existing areas of operation are relevant.
Feb 9, 2024
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Ilana Winter
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Reinforcing U.S. Diplomacy to Stop a Hezbollah-Israel War
Only a comprehensive initiative aimed at curbing Hezbollah’s influence both within Lebanon and in the region stands a chance of delivering peace for the long term.
Feb 8, 2024
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Hanin Ghaddar
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Abu Baqr al-Saeedi: Kataib Hezbollah Terrorist, Serving PMF Official
The Kataib Hezbollah leader killed on February 7 in Baghdad was (until now) a living nexus of Kataib Hezbollah, the Popular Mobilization Forces, and the facade group Alwiyat al-Waad al-Haq.
Feb 7, 2024
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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
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Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Explaining Apparent Muqawama De-Escalation Since January 28
Since three Americans were killed, the self-styled "resistance" has been almost inactive except for a spate of fake, foiled, and disavowed attacks, pointing to an order from Iran to calm things down.
Feb 7, 2024
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Michael Knights
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Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
How Washington Emboldened the Houthis
Greater decisiveness would have shortened the conflict, lessened the toll on global maritime trade, and reassured U.S. partners in the region and beyond.
Feb 6, 2024
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Noam Raydan
Grant Rumley
Video
Brief Analysis
Countering the Houthi Threat to Shipping: Regional Implications and U.S. Policy
Three experts address the thorny strategic questions arising from attacks on global shipping by the Yemen-based group.
Feb 6, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Michael Knights
Noam Raydan
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Monitoring National Reactions to Human Rights Watch Reports in Morocco
The relationship between Human Rights Watch and Moroccan state institutions has been notably tense recently, likely due to HRW’s assessments of the human rights situation in Morocco, which do not necessarily align with those of the government.
Feb 6, 2024
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Soufiane Elgoumri
Brief Analysis
Saudi Arabia’s Shock Cut in Planned Oil Expansion
The decision could lead to further spending reductions in the kingdom.
Feb 5, 2024
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Simon Henderson
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