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Brief Analysis
What Biden and Sudani Need to Start the Next Chapter of U.S.-Iraq Relations
To move beyond the years-long focus on Iran and the Islamic State, both leaders must commit to actions that set the table for a mutually beneficial relationship and convince skeptical domestic constituencies.
Apr 11, 2024
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Dana Stroul
Bilal Wahab
Articles & Testimony
Two Israeli Air Strikes, and Two Syrian Mothers and Sons
The remarkable precision of Israeli attacks on Iranian and Hezbollah operatives in Syria has raised anxiety in Damascus and abroad.
Apr 8, 2024
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Andrew J. Tabler
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi PMF Chief of Staff Commits to Fulfill Iranian Supreme Leader's Plans
Abu Fadak laid bare the limited extent to which his organization is under Prime Minister Sudani's sovereign control, instead identifying Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei as his commander-in-chief.
Apr 8, 2024
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Amir al-Kaabi
Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
◆
Militia Spotlight
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Turkey’s Anti-PKK Operation and “Development Road” in Iraq Are Two Sides of the Same Coin
Turkey's intertwining of its mega project and its anti-PKK operation improves the chances of success for both elements. But this interconnection can be a double-edged sword—if one element fails, it may potentially hinder the success of the other.
Apr 8, 2024
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İdris Okuducu
Brief Analysis
Will Israel Find the Right Type of “Victory” in Gaza?
Officials are having to balance military realities, allied concerns, domestic public sentiment, and the calculations of Hamas, whose own leaders are fine with certain kinds of “defeat” so long as they can still influence Gaza.
Apr 5, 2024
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Neomi Neumann
Articles & Testimony
Putin Is No Ally in the War on Terror in 2024
The Kremlin’s legacy of ties to Hezbollah, the Taliban, and other terrorist actors should disabuse Washington of any hope for common cause.
Apr 5, 2024
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Continuing Threat of ISIS in Iraq after the Withdrawal of the International Coalition
Without active and continuous deterrence, ISIS forces may look to take advantage of the deteriorating security and governance situation in areas formerly under their control.
Apr 4, 2024
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Omar Dhabian
Brief Analysis
Curbing Outside Intervention in the Sudan War
Diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict are being challenged by U.S. partners and adversaries alike, including key Middle East players.
Apr 4, 2024
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Jonathan Campbell-James
Brief Analysis
The Imminent, Avoidable U.S.-Israel Rift Over Gaza
Alliance management in wartime is never easy, but bilateral disagreements over how to address humanitarian and postwar issues risk becoming an enduring feature of the relationship if left unresolved.
Apr 4, 2024
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
G42 and the China-UAE-U.S. Triangle
By sharing very specific concerns directly with the United Arab Emirates, the White House and Congress were rewarded with tangible action on a key company’s ties to Beijing—though more such engagement is needed to keep regional partners aware of U.S. risk tolerance.
Apr 3, 2024
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Andrew G. Clemmensen
Rebecca Redlich
Grant Rumley
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
New Options for Iraq's Axis of Resistance Players (Part 1): Attacks on Israel
Nujaba is signaling that it was the key player in nearly twenty strikes on Israel after the "resistance" halted attacks on U.S. bases in February.
Apr 3, 2024
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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
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Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
New Options for Iraq's Axis of Resistance Players (Part 2): Opening the Jordan Front
With Nujaba seemingly leading on Israel strikes, Kataib Hezbollah is signaling its intended leadership of destabilizing activities in Jordan, an increasingly important base for U.S. forces.
Apr 3, 2024
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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
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Militia Spotlight
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Avoiding Iranian-Backed Iraqi Militias’ Political Takeover in the Shadow of a U.S. Withdrawal
Washington and allies should find ways to increase the cost to Iraqi politicians of normalizing the militias’ role and the subordination of the Iraqi state to Tehran’s rulers.
Apr 3, 2024
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Omar Al-Nidawi
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
China’s Governance Workshops Seek to Promote China’s Brand in the Middle East
China is increasingly backing up its narrative of good governance by providing governance training to foreign officials in an attempt to develop the Chinese brand in the Middle East.
Apr 2, 2024
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Niva Yau
Brief Analysis
Unlike Airdrops, Maritime Aid Corridors Can Actually Help Gaza
Two nascent sea corridors could augment land routes and help Gaza return to or even exceed prewar aid levels—though internal distribution challenges still need to be resolved.
Apr 2, 2024
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Andrew G. Clemmensen
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Federal Supreme Court’s Role in Iraq’s Eroding Democracy
Iraq is in real danger of losing its checks and balances and failing as a constitutional democracy due to the rapid collapse of a separation of powers.
Apr 1, 2024
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Hemin Hawrami
Brief Analysis
Changing the Israel-Lebanon Status Quo: U.S. Options
From exploring land border talks to boosting Israel’s arsenal and recasting UNIFIL, Washington should do more to slow what may be an inevitable slide toward war on this front.
Apr 1, 2024
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David Schenker
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Navigating Cybersecurity and Surveillance: Iran's Dual Strategy for National Security
While Iranian officials acknowledge the significance of cyber tools and AI for foreign policy, they are acutely aware of the country’s financial and scientific limitations.
Mar 29, 2024
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Nima Khorrami
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
A House Divided: Can Kurdistan Preserve Its Autonomy?
The KRG’s autonomy hangs in the balance, caught in a pincer movement between internal political discord and a history of externally imposed limitations. The recent court rulings are merely the latest blow, further restricting the KRG’s ability to govern itself.
Mar 27, 2024
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Ruwayda Mustafah
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Gaza Fatality Data Has Become Completely Unreliable
Given the discrepancies in official Palestinian counts and their growing reliance on questionable data from media reports, the credibility gaps revealed by a previous Washington Institute study have become yawning chasms.
Mar 26, 2024
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Gabriel Epstein
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