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Brief Analysis
Saudi Arabia’s Shock Cut in Planned Oil Expansion
The decision could lead to further spending reductions in the kingdom.
Feb 5, 2024
◆
Simon Henderson
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Liwa al-Tafuf (13th PMF Brigade)
The brigade belongs to the state-funded Popular Mobilization Forces and is a core member of Kataib Hezbollah’s cluster of militias that facilitate anti-U.S. attacks in Iraq’s Anbar province, eastern Syria, and Jordan.
Feb 3, 2024
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Michael Knights
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Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
To Resist or Not to Resist: That Is the Muqawama’s Question
After Kataib Hezbollah announced it was suspending attacks on U.S. forces, the self-styled “resistance” became a hot mess of recriminations.
Feb 2, 2024
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Ameer al-Kaabi
Hamdi Malik
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Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
France’s Diplomatic Role in the Middle East Post-October 7
In Gaza, Lebanon, and beyond, Paris continues to favor multilateral approaches that incorporate key regional partners, though it understands Washington’s paramount role in achieving regional stability.
Feb 2, 2024
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Selin Uysal
Articles & Testimony
Iran’s Militant Empire in the Middle East
The more the Islamic Republic and its proxy groups escalate with the United States and Israel, the greater the risks for a misstep.
Feb 2, 2024
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Andrew J. Tabler
Brief Analysis
Two Tough Scenarios for U.S.-Iraq Relations
Washington’s ever-narrowing Iraq policy has left it with unpalatable choices, but muddling through is a better short-term option than allowing the relationship to rupture.
Feb 1, 2024
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Bilal Wahab
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Egypt Polling Shows Rise in Positive Views of Hamas; Iran-Backed Groups and the Muslim Brotherhood Remain Unpopular
While Hamas has experienced a surge of popular support in Egypt, these views have not impacted those who say that they have a positive view of the Muslim Brotherhood. Iran’s proxies, namely Hezbollah and the Houthis, remained deeply unpopular among Egyptians.
Feb 1, 2024
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Mohamed Abdelaziz
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
What the U.S. Should Demand in a Dialogue with Iraqi PM Sudani
With regard to Sudani’s visit to America, we need to see what the Iraqi PM can achieve before confirming this important invitation. Sudani can be a real prime minister of a real sovereign state if he wants to be, but that will require taking risk.
Feb 1, 2024
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Michael Knights
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Impact of the War in Gaza on Israel-Jordan Cooperation
The Gaza war’s impact on Jordan has been significant and at times uncontrolled, with a primary focus on demands to halt all forms of “bilateral cooperation” with Israel. However, the implementation of the energy for water project is likely only a matter of time, although contingent on cessation of hostilities.
Jan 31, 2024
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Saud Al-Sharafat
Articles & Testimony
The Only Way to Stop Hamas Is to Stop Iran from Rebuilding It
Tehran may simply revive the group or replace it with another terrorist proxy, so Washington and its partners will need to disrupt the flow of Iranian arms and informal financial support to extremist elements in the West Bank and Gaza.
Jan 31, 2024
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Michael Singh
Matthew Levitt
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iran in Sudan: Fears of a Sudanese Popular Mobilization Forces
Given the ways in which Iranian influence has grown elsewhere in the region, there are fears that the Sudanese army, with its Islamist orientation, will morph into a militia group similar to the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, ultimately exerting Iran’s will in exchange for funding and military support.
Jan 31, 2024
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Areej Elhag
Brief Analysis
Tehran Makes Gains, But Concerns Persist About Regime Vulnerability
The regime has been able to drive economic growth, stifle mass protests, and expand its infiltration of neighboring countries, but lingering existential concerns could spur it toward even bolder courses of action—including potential nuclear breakout.
Jan 30, 2024
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Patrick Clawson
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Kataib Hezbollah Secretary-General Tries to Forestall U.S. Strikes
Abu Hussein has unveiled a dramatic gambit to sidestep Washington's threatened response to the killing of three U.S. soldiers.
Jan 30, 2024
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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
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Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
The Islamic State Hits Turkey After Years of Plotting
The latest attack will hopefully be an aberration in Ankara’s otherwise strong record of disrupting terrorist plots at home, though policymakers should not be lulled into complacency given the group’s proven record of evading elimination.
Jan 30, 2024
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Deadly Attack on US Troops in Jordan Marks Major Escalation
Biden now has a hard choice to make: push Israel into a Gaza ceasefire or risk sustained Iran-backed escalation in the region.
Jan 29, 2024
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Andrew J. Tabler
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Badr Fall Out Over Controlling the New Parliamentary Speaker
AAH conspired with a politicized judiciary to remove the speaker but failed to coordinate the replacement with Badr.
Jan 29, 2024
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Hamdi Malik
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Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
Beijing’s Passive-Aggressive Middle East Policy
The real threat to U.S. interests in the region isn’t rising Chinese influence, but the erosion of Washington's influence.
Jan 28, 2024
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Michael Singh
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
How Iran-Backed Groups Control the Arabic Language Sphere on X
Until Twitter’s moderation policies are strictly enforced and moderation loopholes addressed, coordinated efforts will continue to target independent anti-Hezbollah and anti-Hamas voices on X/Twitter while effectively sharing their own messaging, thus ensuring that in the Middle East, Iran-backed actors maintain their grip on the site.
Jan 26, 2024
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Samara Azzi
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Cairo: Stuck between Securing the Red Sea and Avoiding a Perception of Support for Israel
Despite economic losses, Egypt is still hesitant to participate in any direct military operations to deter the Houthis. Cairo believes that it is more appropriate to work towards ending the military operations in the Gaza Strip and launching a political process, rather than opening a new front to expand the conflict in the Middle East.
Jan 26, 2024
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Mohamed Maher
Mohamed Farid
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Hashemite Tribes Regiment
With support from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, this regiment aims to create a more cohesive force capable of opposing the U.S.-backed SDF on the eastern banks of Syria's Euphrates River.
Jan 26, 2024
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Kyle Robertson
Abdullah Hayek
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Militia Spotlight: Profiles
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