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Articles & Testimony
Yes, the Turks Are Good Enough for Europe
Of the 13 candidate countries waiting to enter the European Union, 12 -- including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Malta -- are expected to be promised membership at today's meeting in Copenhagen. Only Turkey is likely to be left out. Ankara has been told that its human rights record does not
Dec 13, 2002
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Israel's Strategy in Curbing Palestinian Violence
Many argue that Israel's current war on Palestinian terror lacks a coherent strategy. Indeed, the obvious mission—to reduce the amount of terror and the damage caused by it—cannot serve as an outline for the direction of the war. The first strategic goal of this war should be to change the
Dec 13, 2002
Brief Analysis
The War on Terror in the Shadow of the Iraq Crisis
BRUCE HOFFMAN As al-Qaeda has weakened, it has been forced to focus on "softer" (i.e., more accessible) targets rather than "hard" targets such as embassies or military installations. Nevertheless, the organization remains remarkably flexible, and its core leadership is still alive and at large. Moreover, Osama bin Laden has a
Dec 12, 2002
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Bruce Hoffman
Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Promoting Democracy in the Muslim World:
Assessing the Latest Exposition of U.S. Policy
In a thoughtful and measured address on December 4, State Department Policy Planning Director Richard Haass enunciated a new Bush administration policy on building "greater democracy" in the "Muslim world." Though it skirted several of the toughest policy issues (e.g., whether and how to promote democracy in inhospitable terrain like
Dec 11, 2002
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Turkey and the European Union at a Crossroads:
America's Role
According to the Financial Times, France and Germany will propose to the December 12–13 European Union (EU) summit that negotiations regarding Turkey's accession to the EU begin in July 2005, providing Ankara achieves further progress in democratic consolidation and human rights. If indeed Turkey is offered a conditional date for
Dec 10, 2002
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Saudi Financial Counterterrorism Measures (Part II):
Smokescreen or Substance?
Last week, Adel al-Jubeir, foreign policy advisor to Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, presided over a Washington press conference and the release of a report, "Initiatives and Actions Taken by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in the Financial Area to Combat Terrorism." The press conference marked the first time
Dec 10, 2002
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Saudi Financial Counterterrorism Measures (Part I):
The Impact in the Kingdom
Measures being taken by Saudi Arabia to stop terrorist financing have been welcomed by top U.S. officials. But the main test for the new rules announced on December 3 will be in Saudi Arabia itself, where zakat (giving to Islamic charities) is a religious duty and where measures that please
Dec 9, 2002
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
A Tale of Two Qatars
The Central Command of the U.S. military reports that the biennial "Internal Look" exercise is slated to begin Monday at the as-Sayliyah base in Qatar. The operation is designed to test U.S. military reactions to various threats in the Middle East. Qatar's strategic importance extends well beyond this exercise. The
Dec 6, 2002
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Jonathan Schanzer
Articles & Testimony
Tighten the Finger on the Trigger
Whenever he's been cornered over the last decade, Saddam Hussein has demonstrated his skill under pressure at stalling, dividing and diverting the West by appearing to cooperate. His strategy has been one of token progress cloaking substantial delays. "Time is working for us," he said in a rare interview last
Dec 5, 2002
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Quartet Roadmap, Take Two:
Still at Odds with Bush's June 24 Speech
Last Friday, while official Washington was still enjoying the Thanksgiving holiday break, the White House stealthily issued Presidential Determination 2003-04, whose first paragraph instructs the State Department to sanction the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and the Palestinian Authority (PA) for noncompliance with obligations stemming from the Oslo Accords. This was
Dec 3, 2002
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David Makovsky
Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Keeping al-Qaeda Out of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Initial suspicions, select intelligence reports, and growing evidence have indicated that al-Qaeda played a role in Thursday's attacks on an Israeli-owned hotel and airliner in Mombasa, Kenya. If this evidence proves accurate, the attacks signal a shift in al-Qaeda's choice of targets and demonstrate a new danger to immediate U.S
Dec 3, 2002
Articles & Testimony
Sponsoring Terrorism:
Syria and Islamic Jihad
This is the third in a series of MEIB studies on Syrian ties to extremist groups listed by the US State Department as terrorist organizations. The first two articles addressed the PFLP-GC and Hamas. An article on Syrian relations with Hezbollah was published in the February 2002 issue. Ramadan Abdullah
Dec 1, 2002
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Voices Who Speak for (and against) Us
From Indonesia to Pakistan, Muslims tuning into television after breaking Ramadan fasts this month are viewing a smorgasbord of U.S.-funded advertisements praising religious tolerance in America. Designed to highlight an appealing attribute of U.S. society, these 30-second spots seem harmless, though most likely ineffectual in countering anti-Americanism. On closer inspection
Dec 1, 2002
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
The November 2002 Elections and Turkey's New Political Era
On November 3, 2002, the Turks went to the polls to elect their new government. The elections ushered in a major realignment of the Turkish political landscape, bringing the Justice and Development Party (AKP)--a party with an Islamist pedigree--to power. The AKP received 34.2 percent of the vote, winning 363
Dec 1, 2002
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
The Political Economy of Middle East Terrorism
Political terrorism, often sponsored by states, has long been a major factor in Middle East politics. Terrorist groups' ability to act more frequently and effectively is closely linked to financing. Such patronage today, however, is proportionately less in the hands of state sponsors. While Iran and Syria continue to back
Dec 1, 2002
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
The New Cabinet in Turkey:
Who is Who?
On November 28, the newly formed Justice and Development Party (AKP) government will present its twenty-five cabinet members to the Turkish Parliament for a vote of confidence. With eleven fewer members than the outgoing cabinet, the new cabinet represents AKP's commitment to smaller government. In addition to six names from
Nov 27, 2002
Brief Analysis
Turkey Has Been Successful As the Leader of the International Force in Afghanistan
ISAF's Mandate The creation of ISAF was authorized by UN Security Council Resolution 1386 in December 2001. The United Kingdom served as the first lead nation until Turkey took over command on June 20, 2002; the Turkish mandate was granted by Resolution 1413, which extended ISAF's authorization until December 20
Nov 27, 2002
Brief Analysis
Sharon Leads Netanyahu before the Likud Primary
On Thursday, an estimated 300,000 members of Israel's Likud Party will head to the polls and decide whether they want Prime Minister Ariel Sharon or Foreign Minister Binyamin Netanyahu as their party leader. This contest has special importance because current polls show that the Likud winner is likely to emerge
Nov 26, 2002
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Envisioning a Post-Saddam Iraqi Military
Retraining and reorganizing the Iraqi military and eliminating weapons of mass destruction (WMD) will be vital tasks in the wake of any U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Yet, political change is a prerequisite for military change, and neglecting the former could pose disastrous consequences for the latter. Specifically, the United States
Nov 25, 2002
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Michael Eisenstadt
Kenneth Pollack
Articles & Testimony
World Should Confront Terrorist Haven of Syria
Palestinian terrorists ambushed a convoy of Israelis in Hebron on Nov. 15, killing 12 and wounding 16. Despite their denials, Syria is fully aware that its Palestinian proxy groups plan, fund and order such attacks from Damascus headquarters. Condemning the attack, Secretary of State Colin Powell said, "It is impossible
Nov 25, 2002
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Matthew Levitt
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