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Articles & Testimony
Full Democracy May Not Be an Answer for Mideast
A false debate has broken out between those who say a key goal of any attack against Iraq would be the creation of an Iraqi democracy and those who believe the world is ultimately more secure if reliable authoritarians can be found in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East
Nov 24, 2002
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Jordan's War Worries:
Saddamistan, Palestinians, and Islamism in the Hashemite Kingdom
Last week's Jordanian government raid on the southern city of Maan was likely a tactic designed to insulate the kingdom from the possible repercussions of a U.S.-led war in Iraq. Indeed, the incident in Maan was a microcosm of larger Jordanian problems stemming from pro-Iraq, Palestinian, and Islamist opposition elements
Nov 22, 2002
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Jonathan Schanzer
Brief Analysis
Toward Renewed Weapons Inspections in Iraq?
UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1441, adopted after weeks of diplomatic aerobics, authorized renewed weapons inspections in Iraq and outlined a timetable for the inspections process, with mandatory deadlines for Iraqi compliance. UNSCR 1441's popularity is remarkable: the United States, Russia, France, and Syria all like it, and even Iraq
Nov 20, 2002
Brief Analysis
Iran:
Reformist Blues, Economic Woes
Iran has been experiencing nationwide student demonstrations this week, touched off by a hardline court's recent decision to sentence Tehran professor Hashem Aghajari to death for advocating reform of the Shi'i clergy. Although Aghajari's message was well within the mainstream of traditional Shi'a thought, it presented a challenge to the
Nov 19, 2002
Brief Analysis
Israel's Labor Party Likely to Choose New Face
Tomorrow, approximately 100,000 members of the Israeli Labor Party will vote for their new leader. The winner will serve as the party's standard-bearer for the national elections on January 28, 2003. Barring an unforeseen turnaround, the winner of tomorrow's contest will be Haifa mayor Amram Mitzna. Binyamin Ben-Eliezer—Mitzna's main rival
Nov 18, 2002
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Challenges for the Justice and Development Party Government in Turkey
The Turkish parliament will meet tomorrow for its first session since the elections of November 3, in which a party with an Islamist pedigree -- the conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) -- secured a majority, winning 363 of 550 seats (the social-democratic Republican People's Party [CHP] is the only
Nov 13, 2002
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Deadline for Hussein
The U.N. Security Council has spoken, and Secretary of State Colin Powell is receiving well-deserved praise for producing a unanimous vote for a tough resolution. But President Bush had it right: The hard part begins now. As the president has said, there have been 16 Security Council resolutions against Iraq
Nov 12, 2002
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Ein al-Hilweh:
Lebanese Tinder Box
Last week's bombing of a coffee shop and car-bombing attack against a Fatah figure in Ein al-Hilweh, a Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, are the latest developments in a wave of recent violence in the camp. Al-Sharq al-Awsat has reported no less than nineteen bombings in Ein al-Hilweh since the
Nov 12, 2002
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Jonathan Schanzer
Articles & Testimony
Follow WWII's Torch into Iraq
As the chance of war with Iraq grows, we should pause today to recall the 60th anniversary of Operation Torch, the American-British invasion of North Africa during World War II. Thanks to Torch, the momentum began to swing against Nazi Germany, an evil regime that used what we now call
Nov 8, 2002
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Robert Satloff
AKP Victory in Turkey
The one-year-old pro-Islamist Justice and Development Party [AKP] won an unexpected landslide victory; probably changing the way the Turkish government will deal with its economic and political situation, and its relationships with Europe and the United States. VOA-TV’s David Borgida had a discussion with Soner Cagaptay, Soref Fellow and Coordinator
Nov 7, 2002
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Turkey Goes to the Polls:
A Post-Mortem
On November 3, Turkey went to polls, and a party with an Islamist pedigree -- the Justice and Development Party (AKP) -- won a clear majority with 34 percent of the vote and 363 of the 550 seats in the parliament. The social-democratic Republican People's Party (CHP) was the only
Nov 7, 2002
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Soner Cagaptay
Mark Parris
Brief Analysis
Sadat's Peace Legacy and Hopes for Arab Liberalism
During those periods when modern Egypt was occupied by foreign powers and governed by regimes subservient to those powers, many Egyptians found themselves attracted to extremist ideas and organizations. Beginning in the 1920s, all sorts of secret revolutionary and extremist organizations began to expand throughout the country. Whether secular or
Nov 7, 2002
Articles & Testimony
Turkey Will Find a Balance between Secularists and Islamists
The Justice and Development Party, or AKP, a party with roots in Islamist opposition, on Sunday won 363 of the 550 seats in the Turkish parliament. Predicting a potential failure of Turkish democracy, some analysts say the Turkish military will step in to take away this Islamist victory and preserve
Nov 5, 2002
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
U.S. Must Address Turkey's War Fears
Turkey, though partners with the United States in the war on terror, is worried about the negative impact that unseating Saddam Hussein could have in the volatile Kurdish areas of northern Iraq. Washington must give a high priority to addressing this concern to ensure full Turkish participation in a coming
Nov 3, 2002
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Combating Terrorist Financing, Despite the Saudis
The annual conference of the Saudi World Assembly of Muslim Youth (WAMY) concludes today in Riyadh. Although it claims to be a charitable organization espousing moderate Islam, WAMY is actually one of many such organizations that, while closely linked to the Saudi government and royal family (e.g., WAMY's president is
Nov 1, 2002
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Unsettled Politics As Usual in Israel
Nobody should be surprised by the "abrupt" end of the 20-month alliance between Israel's Labor Party and the Likud government of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. This sort of thing has happened before in Israeli politics. This time, though, there is a difference: The national unity government is collapsing not over
Nov 1, 2002
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
New Governments in Israel and the Palestinian Authority:
Collapse of Israeli Unity, Return of Arafat Old-Timers
Israel is reconfiguring its government and the Palestinian Authority (PA) has established a new cabinet this week. The Israeli-Palestinian violence of the last two years is unlikely to be transformed into a peace process as a result of this week's developments. This is due to a variety of factors ranging
Oct 31, 2002
◆
David Makovsky
Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Upcoming Turkish Elections:
Likely Winners and Implications for Foreign Policy
On November 3, the Turks will go to the polls to elect their new government. The elections could usher in a major realignment of the Turkish political landscape, perhaps bringing a party with Islamist pedigree -- the Justice and Development Party (AKP) -- to power. Should Washington worry about the
Oct 31, 2002
◆
Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Heads Up on Turkey
It is not yet clear that the United States will use force to remove Saddam Hussein from power. But in discussion of that possibility to date one proposition has never been challenged: You can't do it without Turkey. The conventional wisdom here in America is that, much as the Turks
Oct 28, 2002
◆
Mark Parris
Articles & Testimony
The Prince of Fingerprints
Some day soon -- if it hasn't happened already -- the first American male between the ages of 16 and 45 will be fingerprinted at the border as he enters Saudi Arabia. The measure is in retaliation for the discretionary fingerprinting of male visitors to the United States from a
Oct 28, 2002
◆
Simon Henderson
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