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Brief Analysis
IRGC Conducts “Hybrid” Military Drills as Nuclear Talks Teeter
The timing of the exercise and the types of systems and tactics on display reveal much about Iran’s likely response to any uptick in foreign pressure.
Dec 22, 2021
◆
Farzin Nadimi
In-Depth Reports
Soldiers of End-Times
Assessing the Military Effectiveness of the Islamic State
The IS military project led not only to the announcement of a “caliphate,” but to the proliferation of jihadist franchises that devastated countries, displaced millions, and killed tens of thousands.
Dec 21, 2021
◆
Ido Levy
Articles & Testimony
How the Death of the Soviet Union Transformed the Middle East
Reflecting on the thirtieth anniversary of the Soviet collapse makes clear that Moscow and its pragmatic anti-Western approach never fully left the region.
Dec 21, 2021
◆
Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
Fighter Aircraft Could Give Iran a Nuclear Delivery Option
Newly disclosed interviews indicate that a key Pakistani source of Iran’s nuclear know-how also figured out how to equip F-16s with nukes.
Dec 20, 2021
◆
Simon Henderson
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
U.S. Encouragement of Regional Military Cooperation: An Ongoing Process
Although the United States has firmly committed to shifting its focus eastward, it is making clear efforts to build up regional alternatives to protect its interests.
Dec 20, 2021
◆
Samir Altaqi
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
New UAE Poll: Public Aligned with Foreign Policy Balance, Domestic Conditions
Polling indicates sectarian consensus on most issues, with some variation on Iran.
Dec 20, 2021
◆
David Pollock
Brief Analysis
Bennett Visit Shows the UAE Balancing Between Israeli Ties and Regional De-escalation
The meeting confirmed how eager both countries are to keep their economic progress humming along, but such cooperation could become complicated if concerns about Iran’s nuclear program come to a head.
Dec 16, 2021
◆
David Makovsky
In-Depth Reports
Power to the People?
Scrutinizing the U.S.-Arab Effort to Supply Energy to Lebanon via Syria
Residents of the beleaguered country desperately need electricity, but a U.S.-Arab scheme carries complications that could benefit Syria's Assad regime.
Dec 16, 2021
◆
Katherine Bauer
Ben Fishman
Hanin Ghaddar
Simon Henderson
David Schenker
Andrew J. Tabler
Articles & Testimony
Would Russia Ever Help Syria Break Away From Iranian Influence?
Israel seems to hope that differences between Moscow and Tehran will emerge with greater clarity as the fighting ends, but this view reflects wishful thinking more than reality.
Dec 16, 2021
◆
Anna Borshchevskaya
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Egyptians Value United States and China Equally, but Dislike both Iran and Israel
Popular attitudes in Egypt support both the United States and China, and indicate relative stability on domestic issues.
Dec 15, 2021
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David Pollock
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militia Playground: Kinetic Operations Refocus on East Syria
Iran-backed groups seem to be directing their more dangerous attacks against coalition forces in Syria, not Iraq, and the trend could accelerate in early 2022.
Dec 14, 2021
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Crispin Smith
Hamdi Malik
◆
Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Next Budget Assumes No Nuclear Deal
The government seems to believe the economy will grow significantly even without sanctions relief or increased oil revenue.
Dec 14, 2021
◆
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Ballistic Missile Arsenal Is Still Growing in Size, Reach, and Accuracy
Tehran has doubled down on the strategic importance of missile systems that can threaten U.S. forces and allies, even as its defensive justifications for such an arsenal ring more hollow than ever.
Dec 13, 2021
◆
Farzin Nadimi
In-Depth Reports
Seasoned Skeptics
Why Syrian Kurds Have Resisted Political Islam
The historic role of Sufism, an inclination toward the secular left, and recent repression under extremists have all driven the Kurds away from religiously informed ideology.
Dec 13, 2021
◆
Sirwan Kajjo
Oula A. Alrifai
Brief Analysis
Gulf Arab Summit Could Be Overshadowed by Israel-UAE Meeting
Normalization with Israel will be the elephant in the room at the Riyadh summit, though Iran diplomacy and persistent internal rifts bear close watching as well.
Dec 13, 2021
◆
Simon Henderson
Elana DeLozier
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
New Lebanon Poll: Sectarian Consensus Against Beirut and for Beijing
While all sectarian groups voice increased frustration with the government, positive Shia views on Iran still differ sharply from others.
Dec 13, 2021
◆
David Pollock
Carol Silber
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Explosion in Basra Threatens Further Violence in Iraq
The explosion that rocked Basra on Tuesday may prove a harbinger of greater instability throughout the country in the post-elections period.
Dec 10, 2021
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Azhar Al-Rubaie
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Militia Assassination Surge (Part 1): Sabereen and Unit 10,000 Threaten Iraqi Forces
Both outlets are openly advocating the murder of Iraqi security forces at a time of escalated shootings and bombings.
Dec 10, 2021
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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
Crispin Smith
◆
Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Militia Assassination Surge (Part 2): December Attacks
Desperate militias are now killing Shia civilians in mass-casualty bombings as they try to assassinate Iraqi investigators and intelligence personnel.
Dec 10, 2021
◆
Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
◆
Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
Iran’s Nukes: This Time the Wolf Is Here
Given the regime’s considerable technical progress, even a good deal would only buy time rather than resolving the long-term nuclear threat.
Dec 10, 2021
◆
David Pollock
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