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Brief Analysis
The Evolution of Iran’s Qods Force Since 1979
By absorbing rival organizations and favoring commanders who lack connections to other regime power centers, the IRGC has used the Qods Force to steadily centralize and monopolize control over the country’s foreign operations.
Jun 3, 2021
◆
Ali Alfoneh
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
U.S.-Egyptian Rapprochement after Gaza Ceasefire: Media Responses and Repercussions
While media responses to U.S. rapprochement with Egypt and Egypt's warming towards Hamas differ, it is clear that Sisi has used the Israel-Hamas ceasefire to his advantage.
Jun 3, 2021
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Mohamed Abdelaziz
Brief Analysis
Israel’s Proposed Power-Sharing Government: Policy Implications and Prospects for Survival
Even if the consensus-based coalition is sworn in, the big question mark hanging over Bennett and Lapid is whether Palestinian developments or Netanyahu’s relentless opposition will produce irreconcilable internal differences.
Jun 3, 2021
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David Makovsky
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iraq at a Crossroads: Radical Reforms to Avert State Collapse
Without radical reform, Iraq faces potential dissolution and geographic fragmentation in the case of an increasingly likely economic crisis.
Jun 2, 2021
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Farhad Alaaldin
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
A State in Collapse: Iraq’s Security and Governance Failures
Unregulated weapons, corruption, and mismanagement are pushing Iraq's political system towards potential collapse.
Jun 2, 2021
◆
Farhad Alaaldin
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iraqi Protestors: On the Iraqi State and the Arrest of Muslih
Protestors in Iraq are using the "Who Killed Me" hashtag to call out militia influence in the Iraqi government and demand greater protection for demonstrators.
Jun 2, 2021
◆
Azhar Al-Rubaie
Articles & Testimony
The Policy Consequences of Arab State Normalization with the Assad Regime
In addition to undermining the Biden administration’s promised focus on human rights, allowing Assad to regain legitimacy abroad would constitute a strategic blunder that cannot be explained away.
Jun 2, 2021
◆
Oula A. Alrifai
Aaron Y. Zelin
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
A State in Collapse: Mapping Iraq’s Economic Woes
Poverty, unemployment, and a lack of local industry continue to plague Iraq's economy, and the resulting public unrest could be dangerous.
Jun 2, 2021
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Farhad Alaaldin
Brief Analysis
Iran Nuclear Watchdog Report Suggests Impact of Suspected Israeli Sabotage
News of apparent enrichment setbacks has been offset somewhat by troubling developments in other aspects of the program, not to mention sharp Israeli warnings, diplomatic uncertainty in Vienna, and a pair of sobering nuclear anniversaries.
Jun 1, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Biden Must Manage the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
The administration should take a three-track approach: provide a formula of reconstruction with no rearmament, bolster the PA through assistance conditioned on reform, and broker Arab outreach to open the horizon.
Jun 1, 2021
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
How Iran Fuels Hamas Terrorism
After playing a key role in the group’s military development for years and navigating deep ideological rifts, Tehran has renewed its extensive sponsorship in ways that contributed directly to the recent bloodshed in Gaza.
Jun 1, 2021
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Ido Levy
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Threats Against Iraq's Government Aired on al-Etejah TV
Kataib Hezbollah's television outlet is still airing false claims about the release of Qasim Muslih, as well as coup threats that draw comparisons to Yemen's Houthi takeover.
Jun 1, 2021
◆
Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
◆
Militia Spotlight
In-Depth Reports
Beyond Forever Wars and Great Power Competition:
Rethinking the U.S. Military Role in the Middle East
To meet future security challenges, the United States will need to reassess how it deters adversaries and conducts security force assistance in the region, while becoming more proficient in gray zone operations and information activities. Addressing cultural factors and trends such as climate change will require solutions outside the traditional national security toolkit.
Jun 1, 2021
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Michael Eisenstadt
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Transition 2021
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Don’t Let Iran’s Regime Win the Battle for Hearts and Minds in Gaza
The United States should address Iranian soft-power expansion in Gaza when approaching Israeli-Palestinian issues.
Jun 1, 2021
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Kasra Aarabi
Articles & Testimony
The Inside Story of How Trump ‘Kept the Oil’ in Syria and Lost
The ambitious plan would have seen Delta Crescent, a tiny Delaware company, try to bring peace and stability to the war-ravaged northeast, but local corruption, a lack of U.S. commitment, and other complications doomed the idea.
May 31, 2021
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Kenneth R. Rosen
Articles & Testimony
What’s Wrong with the NY Times’ Report on Children’s Deaths? So Much.
By failing to provide essential information on sourcing, the reporting environment, the victims’ proximity to legitimate military targets, their family connections with combatants, and other matters, the article presents a skewed, sensationalist image of the Gaza conflict.
May 31, 2021
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Algeria’s Economic Challenges: Opportunities for U.S. Engagement
The pandemic has exacerbated persistent structural problems in the government’s approach to foreign investment, banking reform, monetary policy, and other sectors, but Algiers may be more open to U.S. advice on such matters.
May 28, 2021
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Geoff Porter
Articles & Testimony
Wondering Why Gas Costs So Much? Blame Consumer Demands and the Oil Market
A post-oil future isn’t without risks, whether for Middle Eastern producers or Western economies still tied to hydrocarbons in myriad ways.
May 28, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Muqawama Fake News Surrounding Qasim Muslih’s Arrest (Part 1): International Zone Claims
The first wave of post-arrest deception operations tried to give the false impression that militias controlled the Baghdad zone containing the prime minister's residence, the U.S. embassy, and other sensitive sites.
May 28, 2021
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Michael Knights
Crispin Smith
Alex Almeida
Hamdi Malik
◆
Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Muqawama Fake News Surrounding Qasim Muslih’s Arrest (Part 2): Release Claims
Militias made a concerted effort to create the false impression that their colleague had been released immediately, and the claim was soon echoed by major global media outlets.
May 28, 2021
◆
Michael Knights
Crispin Smith
Hamdi Malik
◆
Militia Spotlight
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