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Brief Analysis
Can the Change Coalition End Israel’s Endless Election Cycle?
The diverse coalition may be able to form a viable government, but it will need to navigate carefully in light of internal political differences and Netanyahu’s presence in the opposition as a potential spoiler.
May 6, 2021
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David Makovsky
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Distinguishing Kawader Hezbollah al-Qudama and Kataib Hezbollah
Nouri al-Maliki is gathering various Iraqi resistance figures who fought both Saddam and the coalition, but this marginal "old timer" party is not the same as Kataib Hezbollah, which has yet to show its hand in parliamentary politics.
May 6, 2021
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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
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Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Military Establishment Doubles Down on “Revolution”
By dismissing the Zarif tape and calling for further securitization of government decisionmaking, the officials truly in charge of Iranian foreign policy are previewing what negotiators and neighbors can expect from Tehran for the foreseeable future.
May 5, 2021
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Farzin Nadimi
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Ahd Allah Islamic Movement
Ahd Allah Islamic Movement is a social and cultural movement built around Kataib Hezbollah ideologue Hashem al-Haidari.
May 5, 2021
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Hamdi Malik
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Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Brief Analysis
Rehabilitating Assad: The Arab League Embraces a Pariah
Parochial interests and war fatigue are driving many member states to support premature elections and normalization with Damascus, but this approach will only consolidate Assad’s control and help him evade accountability for war crimes.
May 4, 2021
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David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Lines in the Sea: The Israel-Lebanon Maritime Border Dispute
Benefitting from offshore natural gas reserves should be a win-win situation, but in this case the players may turn it into a zero-sum game.
May 3, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Is Stalemate the Least Bad Option in Syria?
If only to avoid far worse outcomes, Washington should reject Assad’s bogus “reelection” and keep supporting Israeli strikes, the SDF’s viability, and refugee aid.
May 3, 2021
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David Pollock
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada
A U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization that emerged from Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah, works directly with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and has a transnational focus on the shared regional agenda of Iran's "axis of resistance."
May 3, 2021
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Michael Knights
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Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
How Iran Employed Iraq's Muqawama in Its Post-Natanz Response
Militias falsely claimed attacks against Israeli and U.S. targets in retaliation for the nuclear incident, underlining how Tehran directs and coordinates each proxy's kinetic and information operations in a centralized manner.
May 3, 2021
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Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
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Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
The Rise of “Bonapartism” in Iran
Interest in a strong military president is growing in unexpected sectors, but such an outcome is more likely to strengthen Khamenei’s power than drastically reform the system.
Apr 30, 2021
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Mehdi Khalaji
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Imam Hussein Scout Association
The Imam Hussein Scout Association is Kataib Hezbollah’s youth organization and an affiliate of Lebanese Hezbollah's Kishaf al-Imam al-Mahdi youth movement.
Apr 29, 2021
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Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
Michael Knights
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Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Syrian Kurdish Concerns over Russian-Turkish Compromise in Syria
Russian-Turkish compromise in Syria puts Syrian Kurds in a dangerous position.
Apr 29, 2021
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John Saleh
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Sharia Youth Gathering
The Sharia Youth Gathering is an umbrella movement of social service, cultural, sports, and scouting organizations that is effectively controlled by Kataib Hezbollah through a cadre of linked commanders.
Apr 29, 2021
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Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
Michael Knights
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Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Brief Analysis
The Zarif Tape: Revelations on Russia, the Qods Force, and Iran’s Election
The foreign minister had much to say about the IRGC branch’s political interference at home and close relations with Moscow, and the regime has done nothing to dispute his account so far.
Apr 29, 2021
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Mehdi Khalaji
Brief Analysis
To Vote or Not to Vote:
Implications of Postponing Palestinian Elections
As the risks of holding Palestinian elections come into focus, a Palestinian Authority decision to postpone the elections will increase tensions on the ground while highlighting structural flaws within Fatah and the PA.
Apr 28, 2021
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Ghaith al-Omari
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Asaib Ahl al-Haq
Asaib Ahl al-Haq is a major Iraqi armed group that identifies as part of Iran's axis of resistance but stubbornly maintains a degree of independence, forming numerous cells to conduct kinetic, media, and social operations, some bankrolled by the Iraqi state.
Apr 27, 2021
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Michael Knights
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Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba
Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba proved its "axis of resistance" credentials in Syria, but its role in terrorism and repression in Iraq is more enigmatic.
Apr 27, 2021
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Michael Knights
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Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Brief Analysis
UAE Wealth Fund to Buy Share of Israeli Gas Field
If the $1.1 billion deal goes ahead, it will strengthen Abu Dhabi’s claim to be a player in the East Mediterranean.
Apr 27, 2021
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
For Diplomacy to Work, Iran Must Understand That It Cannot Overplay Its Hand
Although the Biden administration strongly favors a diplomatic path to ensuring Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon, it needs to show that it will exercise other options if Tehran makes a viable deal impossible.
Apr 26, 2021
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Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Want to Sell F-35s to the UAE? Time to Address the China Factor
To safeguard U.S. national security, the Biden administration needs to hold the UAE to the same standards it demands of other partners in the Joint Strike Fighter program.
Apr 26, 2021
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David Schenker
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