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Policy Analysis
All Policy Analysis by Aaron Y. Zelin
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Brief Analysis
Al-Qaeda’s External Operations One Year After the Pensacola Attack
Drone campaigns have greatly culled the group’s leadership, but leaders are replaceable, and the guided-attack model seen in Pensacola could be a significant force multiplier for any locally rooted affiliates who seek to strike abroad in the coming years.
Dec 11, 2020
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Matthew Levitt
Aaron Y. Zelin
Video
Brief Analysis
Terrorism in France: New and Old Trends in Jihadism
Three experts on European jihadism discuss the root causes and operational significance of recent Islamist violence in France.
Nov 13, 2020
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Laurence Bindner
Hugo Micheron
Aaron Y. Zelin
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Counterterrorism Lecture Series
Articles & Testimony
Living Long Enough to See Yourself Become the Villain: The Case of Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi
Recent developments in Syria indicate that the jihadi movement is splitting once again, as a prominent ideologue begins to form a third pole at odds with both al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.
Sep 9, 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Video
Brief Analysis
The Islamic State's Resurgence in the COVID Era?
From Defeat to Renewal in Iraq and Syria
Two experts assess the recent attack patterns and future prospects of a group that once seemed on the cusp of defeat in both countries.
May 29, 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
The Jihadi-Backed Salvation Government and Covid-19 in Northwest Syria
Disease prevention efforts in Idlib illustrate the movement's political evolution and its differences from the Islamic State, but the pandemic may still hit the area hard given inconsistent implementation and years of regime destruction.
May 15, 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Syria’s Three Governments Confront the Coronavirus
The rebel administration in Idlib and the Kurdish-led government in the northeast have been more proactive and transparent than the Assad regime, but their populations still need urgent, direct international aid—without the UN’s imprimatur if necessary.
Apr 1, 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Oula A. Alrifai
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
A Year Since Baghuz, the Islamic State Is Neither Defeated nor Resurging (Yet)
Although attack statistics have declined, the continued lack of stable governance in Diyala and Deir al-Zour shows that Washington and its partners have not absorbed the lessons provided by previous insurgencies.
Mar 25, 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
How Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia’s Message Framing Primed Its Members to Become Recruits for the Islamic State
By the time IS came to the fore in Iraq and Syria, many of its themes and activities were already second nature to Tunisian jihadis who had heard similar messaging at home.
Mar 19, 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Ultra Extremism Among Tunisian Jihadis Within the Islamic State
A deeper look into how one of the organization's Tunisian factions in Syria adopted and practiced an even more radical distortion of Islamic thought than its parent group.
Feb 18, 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Video
Brief Analysis
Tunisia's Missionaries of Jihad
How did a democratic bright spot in the Arab Spring become a leading source of Islamic State fighters? Read or watch an in-depth conversation with two jihadism experts.
Feb 14, 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Rukmini Callimachi
In-Depth Reports
Your Sons Are at Your Service: Tunisia’s Missionaries of Jihad
How did Tunisia, a democratic bright spot of the Arab uprisings with very little history of terrorist violence within its borders before 2011, become one of the largest sources of foreign fighters for the Islamic State? This groundbreaking book presents the first history of the Tunisian jihadi movement and challenges simplified views of jihadism's appeal and success.
Feb 7, 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Feb 4, 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Tunisia Turns a Corner Against the Jihadist Movement
Fewer attacks and more prosecutions suggest the country’s integrated approach could eventually become a model for the region.
Jan 27, 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Dec 27, 2019
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Aaron Y. Zelin
After Losses, Islamic State Plots Comeback
An in-depth interview on the scope of the terrorist group's remaining activities in Syria, Iraq, and other countries, including the potential for future insurgencies and mass-casualty attacks.
Dec 13, 2019
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
The Islamic State in Libya Has Yet to Recover
Given the group’s operational silence and loss of foreign help, it may not be able to launch the type of insurgency seen in Syria, but that could change if U.S. attention wanes militarily or diplomatically.
Dec 6, 2019
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Video
Brief Analysis
The Islamic State in Syria: What's Next?
Three leading scholars assess the group’s status and ambitions following the death of its leader, and discuss how to handle the numerous potential supporters still residing in Syrian camps.
Nov 1, 2019
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Devorah Margolin
Amarnath Amarasingam
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Counterterrorism Lecture Series
Brief Analysis
Oct 31, 2019
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Baghdadi Is Dead but His Legend Lives On
The Islamic State no longer governs territory, but aspiring jihadists can now point to a caliphate project achieved in their lifetime, a long-held yearning of the international movement.
Oct 29, 2019
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Oct 28, 2019
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Aaron Y. Zelin
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