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All Policy Analysis by Aaron Y. Zelin
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Maps & Graphics
Articles & Testimony
Introducing the Islamic State Select Worldwide Activity Map
This multimedia tool—easily the most comprehensive of its kind—provides a novel, accessible way to understand the Islamic State’s global reach and activities. Beyond a traditional focus on attacks, find content from Islamic State media, designations, and legal cases.
Mar 21, 2023
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Saied’s Tunisia Is Politicizing Counterterrorism Again
His government is using CT tools to go after the political opposition, but the ongoing lull in jihadist activity may give Washington some breathing room to press him on these issues.
Mar 9, 2023
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Iran Formalizes Ties with the Taliban
The two governments have been engaging for months on standard diplomatic issues, but the new embassy handover may prove more worrisome given that they are both rogue regimes capable of coordinating against U.S. interests in the region.
Mar 3, 2023
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and Imagined Communities in Its Proto-State
The jihadist group has been releasing upbeat online briefs about various locales under its control, seemingly aiming to unite residents in northwest Syria and soften its image abroad.
Mar 1, 2023
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Sarah Cahn
Articles & Testimony
Jihadi “Counterterrorism”: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Versus the Islamic State
An in-depth look at how the Syrian group has sought to differentiate itself from other jihadist terrorist organizations, but with only partial success despite a decade’s worth of political evolution.
Feb 2023
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
The Islamic State Attacks the Islamic Republic
The jihadist group has been actively plotting against Iran for years, though the recent upsurge in threats from its Afghan branch may presage a new wave of cells and attacks inside the embattled Islamic Republic.
Oct 31, 2022
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Jawlani’s “State of the Union”
The Syrian jihadist leader’s growing efforts to garner legitimacy and build up local institutions can only go so far amid the group’s continued terrorist sympathies and minority repression.
Aug 29, 2022
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Looking for Legitimacy: Taliban Diplomacy Since the Fall of Kabul
The group’s international profile has risen substantially with help from China, Turkey, and other states, but Western leaders should curtail their engagement so long as Kabul keeps gaslighting them about its al-Qaeda ties.
Aug 15, 2022
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
What Zawahiri’s Death Means for al-Qaeda and Its Branches
Despite the potent symbolic benefits of taking out the infamous terrorist ideologue, his death is unlikely to affect the organization’s daily operations, which are increasingly being driven by dangerous affiliates in Africa.
Aug 2, 2022
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Matthew Levitt
Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Why Is It So Difficult to Get Off a Terrorist List?
Strategic priorities, political factors, and institutional inertia make it hard to remove a group from government lists even if it no longer meets the designation criteria, potentially hog-tying U.S. policymakers.
Jul 3, 2022
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Video
Brief Analysis
Al-Qaeda, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and the Future of Jihadism
A panel of leading counterterrorism scholars and practitioners discuss the evolving face of the global jihadist movement amid changes in Washington’s CT posture.
Jun 15, 2022
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Anastasia Smith
Aaron Y. Zelin
Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Rhetoric Meets Reality in Jawlani’s Push for Self-Sufficiency
As a key UN vote approaches, Washington should push Turkey to help promote a diverse, balanced economy in HTS-controlled northwest Syria.
Jun 8, 2022
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
The Age of Political Jihadism:
A Study of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
The Syria-based group now functions more like a government than a nonstate actor, portending a reorientation for the larger jihadist movement.
May 9, 2022
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Turkey Calls for Recognition of the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate
Ankara has taken a leading role in rehabilitating the group’s image, but many other countries have reached out as well, making eventual recognition a fait accompli.
Mar 17, 2022
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Tunisian Jihadism in the Shadow of a Coup
If the West delays on pressing Saied to resume the democratic transition, it risks undermining the progress made so far in establishing a professional, apolitical counterterrorism infrastructure.
Mar 3, 2022
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Second Islamic State Leader Killed in Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Territory
To shed light on the intentions and capabilities of the jihadist group that runs Idlib province, the Biden administration should clarify its relations with HTS, including any counterterrorism cooperation.
Feb 3, 2022
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
When Tunisians Fired the Start Gun for 9/11
A footnote in one decade of jihadist history can become a major mobilizer for terrorists and foreign fighters in subsequent years, and few cases illustrate this problem better than the Tunisian operatives involved in the 2001 murder of an Afghan rebel leader.
Sep 9, 2021
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Political Uncertainty Deepens in Tunisia
Washington should publicly emphasize the importance of preserving hard-won progress on political pluralism and human rights, while privately conveying that Tunis must return to the constitutional framework in order to receive MCC and IMF funding.
Aug 31, 2021
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Sarah Feuer
Grant Rumley
Ben Fishman
Aaron Y. Zelin
Video
Brief Analysis
From Afghanistan to the Middle East:
Implications of the U.S. Withdrawal and Taliban Victory
Three Institute scholars discuss the fallout from Kabul, with special focus on the consequences for global jihadism, Iranian policy, and regional responses.
Aug 26, 2021
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Kathryn Wheelbarger
Aaron Y. Zelin
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Return of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan: The Jihadist State of Play
Regardless of the Taliban’s promises to keep foreign terrorist elements in check, its victory is already boosting elements within the jihadist movement and may once again spur foreign fighter traffic to Afghanistan.
Aug 18, 2021
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Aaron Y. Zelin
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