All Policy Analysis by Farzin Nadimi

The high-tech force will explore human-machine teaming concepts in waters near Iran, but questions remain about whether the United States is prepared to defend those assets when necessary.

Since the fall of Kabul—and well beforehand—Iranian officials have signaled how they might use a Taliban victory to further their goals in the Middle East, though they remain concerned about the fate of Afghan Shia.

Lethal targeting and other signs of escalation point to the necessity of a robust international maritime security force with a strong UN mandate.

As it deploys more military forces along the border, Tehran is no doubt mulling various options for securing its interests next door, whether by waging proxy warfare, intervening directly, working with the Taliban, or trying to preserve the status quo.

Drone systems paraded in Camp Ashraf were a show of strength, including the debut of new types of Iranian-provided airframes and control vehicles.

Tehran has bolstered the ground combat capabilities of its proxy militias within the PMF, though the equipment rarely sees combat employment.

The maiden voyage may just be a token political and training mission to boost morale—or the first step in sending long-range missiles, drones, fast-attack boats, and other materiel to Tehran’s allies in the Caribbean or Mediterranean.

By dismissing the Zarif tape and calling for further securitization of government decisionmaking, the officials truly in charge of Iranian foreign policy are previewing what negotiators and neighbors can expect from Tehran for the foreseeable future.

Although both sides have sought to keep their tit-for-tat maritime attacks under control, they pose a substantial risk of miscalculation and escalation that could jeopardize international shipping.

In addition to prohibiting any negotiations over Iran’s military power or regional ambitions, the legislation would oblige the government to work toward evicting the United States from the Middle East and destroying Israel within twenty years.

Unusual deployments by the U.S. and Israeli navies may be intended to deter Iranian attacks in the Gulf, but both moves are ripe for misinterpretation in Tehran.

In addition to hinting at when (and who) Iran might strike, the Supreme Leader left the door open for eventual talks with the Biden administration, despite throwing water on President Rouhani’s enthusiasm.

Tehran aims to earn hard currency for its relatively cheap military hardware, ideally boosting its leverage in Baghdad at a fraction of the cost that the United States has been spending there.

The regime senses a major win in the forthcoming move, perceiving an isolated and weakened United States and opportunities for escalation on many fronts.

New hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan are forcing Tehran to balance domestic demographic concerns and its desire to expand military ties with Yerevan.

Although many of the recently unveiled systems are foreign copies or have unproven capabilities, they show a substantial indigenous development capacity that will only accelerate once the UN ban on weapons sales is lifted—even if past sanctions snap back into action.

In April 2020, the IRGC launched its first domestically made satellite, the Nour-1, into orbit. The launch showed the risks of lifting arms restrictions on Iran, a move supported by potential weapons trade partners Russia and China but vehemently opposed by the United States. Ending the embargo could facilitate Tehran’s

Coming soon after Western naval redeployments in the Gulf and explosions at sensitive Iranian sites, the recent drills illustrate the regime’s eagerness to reassert its deterrence by showing off new weapons and capabilities.

Despite domestic challenges, major technical hurdles, and ongoing Israeli military interdiction, Iran still aims to transfer potent air defense systems to fellow ‘axis of resistance’ members and interconnect them.

The regime may eventually use larger vessels to project power beyond the Gulf, but even its more modest recent additions portend further confrontations and weapons proliferation in local waters.