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All Policy Analysis by Farzin Nadimi
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Brief Analysis
Khamenei Securitizes the Pandemic as the IRGC Mulls Regional Action
With the regime leadership accusing the United States of using bioweapons and fomenting other hateful disinformation, the potential for violence against U.S. forces and interests will likely escalate.
Mar 27, 2020
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Farzin Nadimi
Video
Brief Analysis
The IRGC Post-Soleimani: Political and Security Implications at Home and Abroad
Three leading Iran scholars explore how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the broader regime will adapt their policies following the death of the seminal Qods Force commander.
Mar 3, 2020
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Ariane Tabatabai
Mehdi Khalaji
Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
The UN Exposes Houthi Reliance on Iranian Weapons
In addition to dispelling any lingering notion that last year’s Aramco attack came from Yemen, the report documents Iran’s efforts to help the rebels acquire advanced missiles, weapons components, and training.
Feb 13, 2020
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Lifting the Arms Restrictions on Iran: What Will and Won’t Change
UN limits on Iranian weapons transactions will expire in a few short months, and even snapback sanctions may be insufficient to prevent proliferation of dangerous arms to and from the regime.
Jan 23, 2020
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Europe Pushing Back on Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program
Britain, France, and Germany are taking a more proactive role by publicly emphasizing known concerns about the regime’s R&D efforts, but practical mechanisms for ensuring transparency are still needed.
Dec 9, 2019
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
The IRGC States Its Case for Escalation Against the United States, Britain, and Saudi Arabia
As its concerns about domestic dissent and Western naval activity grow, Tehran may once again try to divert attention from the unrest at home by launching attacks abroad.
Nov 26, 2019
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Gasoline Protests: Regime Unpopular but Resilient
The demonstrations indicate widespread popular rejection of the political system, but this same system remains well organized to deflect and counter unrest.
Nov 18, 2019
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Patrick Clawson
Mehdi Khalaji
Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iraq’s Air Defense Conundrum: Options for U.S. Policy
Baghdad is under pressure to show it can protect its airspace, but procuring Russian or Iranian equipment might complicate U.S.-Iraq relations without addressing the triggers for Israeli strikes.
Sep 12, 2019
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Michael Knights
Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran Develops Air Defense Capability for Possible Regional Role
A newly announced system could further the regime’s longstanding desire to create an A2AD umbrella in the Gulf and forward-deploy antiaircraft missiles in other countries.
Aug 27, 2019
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Clarifying Freedom of Navigation in the Gulf
Legal ambiguities have led to disagreements over how vessels can use the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf, so Washington should highlight them in any future talks with Iran.
Jul 24, 2019
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Response to Britain’s Tanker Seizure
Recent Iranian rhetoric and actions point to further retaliation, but taking that route may lead to the same strategic miscalculations and international intervention that cost the country so dearly in the 1980s.
Jul 15, 2019
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Jun 20, 2019
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran Seems Prepared for Major—But Measured—Escalation in the Gulf
The latest round of shipping attacks could be another notch in Tehran’s controlled military response to U.S. pressure, and bolder escalatory actions should be expected given the bleak outlook for negotiations.
Jun 14, 2019
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Rumors of War: Responding to Iranian Pushback in the Gulf
Washington should reduce tensions, open lines of communication, and restore deterrence, though managing the contradictions between these objectives will be challenging.
May 17, 2019
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Michael Eisenstadt
Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
How Sanctions Are Affecting Iran’s Airline Industry
Greater delays, downtime, and problems acquiring new planes have made Iran feel the heat, but its civil aviation sector continues to generate revenue for the regime.
Apr 17, 2019
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Missile Defiance: Potential Threats to Europe, the Gulf, and Israel
Tehran can be expected to continue its provocations amid Western pressure on its missile activities, issuing further threats against U.S. allies and showing off new systems.
Mar 29, 2019
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran's Shift to a More Offensive Posture Could Be a Sign of Weakness
Pressures at home and abroad may be driving the regime to embrace new offensive operations and tactics, leaving the door open for a broader offensive strategy if another war erupts in the Middle East.
Feb 7, 2019
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Continued Push for a Nuclear-Ready Missile Capability
The latest test launch represents a potential technological milestone for Iran—and a wakeup call for Europe.
Jan 4, 2019
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran Plans to Make Its Oil Industry More Resilient
To counter U.S. sanctions, Tehran is pursuing a three-pronged strategy of diversifying its export outlets, bumping up fuel production, and creating a strategic storage network.
Dec 11, 2018
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
For a Second Time, Iran Fires Missiles at IS Targets in Syria
Tehran likely used the attack to demonstrate its unhindered regional reach, while flashing its enhanced deterrent posture through the testing of new military hardware.
Oct 1, 2018
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Farzin Nadimi
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