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All Policy Analysis by Farzin Nadimi
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Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Are the Houthis Attacking Ships in the Mediterranean?
Direct strikes from the Yemeni group are unlikely at the moment, but a more aggressive Hezbollah could alter the threat picture.
Jul 3, 2024
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Noam Raydan
Farzin Nadimi
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Maritime Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah Threatens Cyprus: Capabilities, Intentions, and Potential Consequences
If Hezbollah’s conflict with Israel widens, the group could use its large missile and drone arsenal to attack Cyprus, the allied military presence based there, and a wide array of shipping and energy assets in the East Mediterranean.
Jun 21, 2024
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Hanin Ghaddar
Farzin Nadimi
David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Aviation Accidents Aren’t Caused by U.S. Sanctions
President Raisi’s fatal crash put a spotlight on the dire state of aviation safety in Iran, but the regime’s gross mismanagement and corrupt profiteering are to blame, not foreign sanctions.
Jun 5, 2024
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Farzin Nadimi
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Behind Houthi Attacks on Ships Operated by Greece-Based Companies
Links to Israel-linked companies, especially in light of the Rafah invasion, are again the culprit.
May 31, 2024
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Noam Raydan
Farzin Nadimi
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Maritime Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Assessing the Latest Houthi Maritime Threats
Even increased aggressive activity in the Indian Ocean will be unlikely to seriously disrupt maritime traffic and global trade—but vessels calling on Israeli ports will need to take extra precautions.
May 16, 2024
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Noam Raydan
Farzin Nadimi
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Maritime Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Pay Attention to Ship Seizures, Not Threats to Close Strait of Hormuz
Low-key actions like seizures can increase regional and global concerns and increase Iran's leverage.
Apr 29, 2024
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Noam Raydan
Farzin Nadimi
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Maritime Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Amid Red Sea Crisis, Saudi Company Launches North Shipping Service
Riyadh’s aim to become a global logistics hub connecting three continents will face challenges if risks to southern Red Sea shipping persist at their current levels.
Apr 20, 2024
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Noam Raydan
Farzin Nadimi
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Maritime Spotlight
Video
Brief Analysis
The Middle East's Perilous Moment: Policy Implications and Escalation Risks
Two former U.S. and Israeli officials join a security expert to examine Iran’s unprecedented attack, Israel’s potential response, and U.S. options to prevent the outbreak of full-scale regional war.
Apr 18, 2024
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Dana Stroul
Zohar Palti
Farzin Nadimi
Maps & Graphics
Articles & Testimony
Tracking Maritime Attacks in the Middle East Since 2019
An interactive map showing the extent to which Houthi forces, their Iranian military patrons, and other actors have been targeting vessels in regional waterways for years, including well before the Hamas-Israel war.
Jan 31, 2024
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Noam Raydan
Farzin Nadimi
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Maritime Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Terrorist Bombings in Iran: Implications and Potential Responses
Although an Islamic State branch claimed the deadly blasts near a restive border zone, Tehran was quick to blame Israel and the United States, promising “severe retaliation” akin to what followed Qasem Soleimani’s death in 2020.
Jan 5, 2024
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Farzin Nadimi
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Under Fire in the Bab al-Mandab: Houthi Military Capabilities and U.S. Response Options
The group is using a wide range of weapons and tactics to escalate its disruption of regional maritime security, establishing selective sea denial against Israeli vessels seeking passage through the strait and threatening U.S. warships that show up to protect them.
Dec 8, 2023
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Farzin Nadimi
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iran Potentially Expanding Its Air Defense Axis in Lebanon and Syria
Tehran is seemingly redoubling its efforts to equip Hezbollah and other regional allies with advanced air defense systems, which could affect Israeli and U.S. calculations in the Gaza war and beyond.
Nov 15, 2023
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Farzin Nadimi
Video
Brief Analysis
Will Hezbollah and Iran Expand War to Israel's North?
A former senior IDF official joins Lebanese and U.S. experts to discuss whether additional fronts are poised to open in the north, and what Washington is doing to avert this risk.
Oct 17, 2023
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Yair Golan
Hanin Ghaddar
David Schenker
Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Yemen’s “Southern Hezbollah” Celebrates Coup Anniversary in Deadly Fashion
Ending the war and facilitating other U.S.-Saudi diplomatic tracks is crucial, but neither goal will be served by turning a blind eye to the Houthis’ latest jumps in militarization.
Sep 28, 2023
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Michael Knights
Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
The Uncertain State of Deterrence in the Persian Gulf
Despite conducting military drills and maintaining a defiant tone, Iran has avoided further ship seizures, but its demonstrated willingness to take assertive action in this zone of “contested deterrence” remains intact.
Sep 13, 2023
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Farzin Nadimi
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
The Next Generation of Iranian Ballistic Missiles:
Technical Advances, Strategic Objectives, and Potential Western Responses
Amid revived nuclear talks with the United States, Iran finally debuted its vaunted Fattah “hypersonic missile”—just after test-launching an improved large-payload MRBM—in a clear bid to demonstrate conventional military deterrence capability.
Jul 25, 2023
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Risks of Maritime Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz
If the United States does not accompany its military deterrent efforts with strong diplomatic signals, the current cycle of ship seizures and Iranian retaliatory measures could spiral into something resembling the 1980s Tanker War.
Jul 21, 2023
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iranian Reactions to the Wagner Standoff in Russia
Iranian officials are keenly aware that Putin’s crisis parallels their own vulnerabilities, so they will likely step up their efforts to cement the bilateral security relationship and obtain Russian weapons and technology.
Jun 28, 2023
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran’s National Security Council Shuffle Signals Business as Usual
The latest change followed the normal timeline for such appointments, and the new council secretary is a demonstrated loyalist who will presumably toe the Supreme Leader’s uncompromising line.
May 24, 2023
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
U.S. Deploys Cruise Missile Submarine to Strengthen Deterrence Against Iran
Amid rising tensions with Tehran and its proxies, the United States is sending a message by openly deploying one of its few guided missile submarines to the region.
Apr 14, 2023
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Farzin Nadimi
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