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All Policy Analysis by Farzin Nadimi
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Brief Analysis
Iran-Israel Clashes in Syria Could Spill Into the Gulf
As in past incidents where IRGC officers were killed, U.S. naval forces should watch closely for any Iranian attempt to retaliate against Israel by attacking one of its commercial vessels in nearby waters.
Apr 4, 2023
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Farzin Nadimi
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iran Unveils New Underground Air Base
The facility is seemingly intended for launching surprise maritime interdiction missions in the Persian Gulf region, mainly aimed at U.S. Fifth Fleet assets—though it probably won’t be able to accommodate Iran’s potential future fleet of Russian jets.
Feb 13, 2023
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
After Ukraine: Russia’s Potential Military and Nuclear Compensation to Iran
Despite the obstacles to expanded cooperation, Russian aid could help Tehran promote repression at home and instability abroad, so the United States and its allies should seek to deter such collaboration wherever possible.
Jan 20, 2023
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Louis Dugit-Gros
Anna Borshchevskaya
Michael Eisenstadt
Farzin Nadimi
Henry Rome
Brief Analysis
Violence in Iran’s Uprising: What Happens If Either Side Escalates?
The regime still has additional means of making the crackdown even more lethal, and parts of the country are potentially primed to take up arms in response, with uncertain consequences on the ground.
Dec 8, 2022
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Farzin Nadimi
Patrick Clawson
Multimedia
Brief Analysis
Iran May Be Outsourcing Kamikaze Drone Production to Venezuela
Tehran, Caracas, and Moscow have been running a secretive air bridge just as Iran appears to be surging its transfer of attack drones to Russia, raising questions about whether these activities are linked.
Nov 17, 2022
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Will a Sense of Revenge Spur Iran to Attack Saudi Arabia?
While the regime doubles down on its domestic crackdown, it has increased its threatening rhetoric abroad as well, potentially drawing U.S. assets into a new round of military escalation reminiscent of summer 2019.
Oct 4, 2022
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
New Iranian Warship Signals Longer Maritime Reach, More Aggressive Strategy
Although Tehran tends to exaggerate its naval achievements and blue-water capabilities, the heavy investments it has made in this sector are yielding regionally significant progress.
Sep 16, 2022
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iranian Seizures Raise Questions About Unmanned Maritime Operations
More trouble may await U.S. vessels unless officials work resolutely to protect them and establish effective guidelines for their safe operation.
Sep 7, 2022
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iranian Drones to Russia: Capabilities and Limitations
Besides signaling that Iran has shifted to active military support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, the prospective transfer gives Moscow a stopgap option until its own advanced drones are ready for service.
Aug 1, 2022
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Insecurity Prompts Iran’s Deceptive Show of Force
Tehran is using drone technology to restore a deterrent posture tarnished by recent targeted killings, attacks on military and nuclear sites, and popular domestic uprisings.
Jun 8, 2022
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Farzin Nadimi
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Game of Drones
After decades of steady development, Tehran now uses drones to complement its missiles and support the broader effort to bring the entire Middle East within its range.
Mar 2, 2022
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran Takes Next Steps on Rocket Technology
Solid-propellant motors represent the future for the Islamic Republic, promising much longer ranges and orbit reach for its space and ballistic missile programs.
Feb 11, 2022
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
IRGC Conducts “Hybrid” Military Drills as Nuclear Talks Teeter
The timing of the exercise and the types of systems and tactics on display reveal much about Iran’s likely response to any uptick in foreign pressure.
Dec 22, 2021
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Ballistic Missile Arsenal Is Still Growing in Size, Reach, and Accuracy
Tehran has doubled down on the strategic importance of missile systems that can threaten U.S. forces and allies, even as its defensive justifications for such an arsenal ring more hollow than ever.
Dec 13, 2021
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
A Close Encounter of the Propaganda Kind in the Gulf
Despite more structured international maritime security measures, a recent encounter between Iranian and U.S. naval forces reiterated the potential for miscalculation, especially under a more assertive government in Tehran.
Nov 22, 2021
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
New Navy Task Force Aims to Deter Iran with Unmanned Systems
The high-tech force will explore human-machine teaming concepts in waters near Iran, but questions remain about whether the United States is prepared to defend those assets when necessary.
Sep 17, 2021
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran Is Poised to Exploit the Uncertainties of the Afghan Collapse
Since the fall of Kabul—and well beforehand—Iranian officials have signaled how they might use a Taliban victory to further their goals in the Middle East, though they remain concerned about the fate of Afghan Shia.
Aug 18, 2021
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran-Israel Escalation at Sea: The Need for an International Coalition Response
Lethal targeting and other signs of escalation point to the necessity of a robust international maritime security force with a strong UN mandate.
Aug 9, 2021
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran Sets Its Eyes on Afghanistan
As it deploys more military forces along the border, Tehran is no doubt mulling various options for securing its interests next door, whether by waging proxy warfare, intervening directly, working with the Taliban, or trying to preserve the status quo.
Jul 19, 2021
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Farzin Nadimi
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militias Parade Under the PMF Banner (Part 1): Drone Systems
Drone systems paraded in Camp Ashraf were a show of strength, including the debut of new types of Iranian-provided airframes and control vehicles.
Jul 3, 2021
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Farzin Nadimi
Michael Knights
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Militia Spotlight
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