All Policy Analysis by Farzin Nadimi

The latest round of shipping attacks could be another notch in Tehran’s controlled military response to U.S. pressure, and bolder escalatory actions should be expected given the bleak outlook for negotiations.

Washington should reduce tensions, open lines of communication, and restore deterrence, though managing the contradictions between these objectives will be challenging.

Greater delays, downtime, and problems acquiring new planes have made Iran feel the heat, but its civil aviation sector continues to generate revenue for the regime.

Tehran can be expected to continue its provocations amid Western pressure on its missile activities, issuing further threats against U.S. allies and showing off new systems.

Pressures at home and abroad may be driving the regime to embrace new offensive operations and tactics, leaving the door open for a broader offensive strategy if another war erupts in the Middle East.

The latest test launch represents a potential technological milestone for Iran—and a wakeup call for Europe.

To counter U.S. sanctions, Tehran is pursuing a three-pronged strategy of diversifying its export outlets, bumping up fuel production, and creating a strategic storage network.

Tehran likely used the attack to demonstrate its unhindered regional reach, while flashing its enhanced deterrent posture through the testing of new military hardware.

Despite the appointment of a radical anti-American commander, Iran’s naval forces are unlikely to resume frequent provocations without a strategic shift at the very top of the regime.

Renewed naval exercises, missile tests, and other developments point to a broadening threat, but their muted nature indicates that Tehran is trying to avoid popular backlash at home.

Despite its nominal defense role, the NPDO has helped the regime repress citizens online, a function that Washington should counter with sanctions.

The latest tanker attack by Iranian-backed rebels underlines the need to restore the entire Red Sea coast to Yemen’s internationally recognized government.

Numerous individual aircraft and front companies were added to the Treasury sanctions list, but naming even more of them could boost U.S. efforts to pressure Iran and close the IRGC’s Syrian air bridge.

The Houthis will likely try to intensify their cross-border missile strikes and other asymmetric tactics to internationalize the battle, steps the United States should firmly oppose.

The latest clash indicates that Tehran has underestimated how far the IDF will go to prevent Iranian military entrenchment on its northeast border.

Tehran continues to maintain significant drone forces at a base in western Syria, giving them dangerously easy access to the Israeli border and raising the risk of escalation.

In addition to preventing the entry of smuggled Iranian air-defense systems, Washington should work with the Saudi-led coalition to blunt the impact of evolving Houthi SAM tactics.

Beijing's economic project in Gwadar Port and planned military presence in the Jiwani peninsula may wind up redrawing the region's geopolitical map.

The U.S. military should view the recent quiet as a short-term interlude in Tehran's longstanding doctrine of aggressive naval behavior.

The Islamic Republic's self-declared triumphs in Syria and Iraq could embolden it to expand the role of its "International Basij" and build more-formidable proxies in Afghanistan, Yemen, and other locales.