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All Policy Analysis by Farzin Nadimi
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Brief Analysis
IRGC Navy Leadership Change May Not Signal Imminent Behavior Change
Despite the appointment of a radical anti-American commander, Iran’s naval forces are unlikely to resume frequent provocations without a strategic shift at the very top of the regime.
Sep 5, 2018
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Responding to Iran's New Weapons and Naval Drills in the Gulf
Renewed naval exercises, missile tests, and other developments point to a broadening threat, but their muted nature indicates that Tehran is trying to avoid popular backlash at home.
Aug 21, 2018
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran's Passive Defense Organization: Another Target for Sanctions
Despite its nominal defense role, the NPDO has helped the regime repress citizens online, a function that Washington should counter with sanctions.
Aug 16, 2018
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Curbing Houthi Attacks on Civilian Ships in the Bab al-Mandab
The latest tanker attack by Iranian-backed rebels underlines the need to restore the entire Red Sea coast to Yemen’s internationally recognized government.
Jul 27, 2018
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Michael Knights
Farzin Nadimi
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Treasury Increases the Pressure on Iranian Airlines
Numerous individual aircraft and front companies were added to the Treasury sanctions list, but naming even more of them could boost U.S. efforts to pressure Iran and close the IRGC’s Syrian air bridge.
Jun 1, 2018
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
The Hodeida Campaign (Part 3): Deterring Houthi Retaliation
The Houthis will likely try to intensify their cross-border missile strikes and other asymmetric tactics to internationalize the battle, steps the United States should firmly oppose.
May 16, 2018
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Farzin Nadimi
Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Miscalculated Escalation in the Golan
The latest clash indicates that Tehran has underestimated how far the IDF will go to prevent Iranian military entrenchment on its northeast border.
May 10, 2018
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Israel Once Again Strikes Iran's UAV Base in Syria
Tehran continues to maintain significant drone forces at a base in western Syria, giving them dangerously easy access to the Israeli border and raising the risk of escalation.
Apr 10, 2018
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran's Support to Houthi Air Defenses in Yemen
In addition to preventing the entry of smuggled Iranian air-defense systems, Washington should work with the Saudi-led coalition to blunt the impact of evolving Houthi SAM tactics.
Apr 4, 2018
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Farzin Nadimi
Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
A China-Pakistan Base Deal Could Put Iran on the Back Foot
Beijing's economic project in Gwadar Port and planned military presence in the Jiwani peninsula may wind up redrawing the region's geopolitical map.
Mar 27, 2018
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran's Reduced Naval Harassment in the Gulf Is Temporary and Tactical
The U.S. military should view the recent quiet as a short-term interlude in Tehran's longstanding doctrine of aggressive naval behavior.
Mar 7, 2018
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran May Double Down on Foreign Militias After Its 'Victory' Against the Islamic State
The Islamic Republic's self-declared triumphs in Syria and Iraq could embolden it to expand the role of its "International Basij" and build more-formidable proxies in Afghanistan, Yemen, and other locales.
Dec 6, 2017
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Possible Iranian Links to the Claimed Houthi Missile Launch Against the UAE
Early signs indicate that the rebels may have attempted to strike an Emirati nuclear site with an Iranian cruise missile -- a claim that could heighten international pressure on Tehran and raise the stakes of the regional conflict if confirmed.
Dec 4, 2017
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran's Potential Military Reactions to New U.S. Sanctions
Tehran could back up its defiant rhetoric by deploying air defense assets to Syria, establishing an asymmetric naval presence in the Mediterranean, smuggling more arms to the Houthis, and stepping up its ballistic missile program.
Nov 7, 2017
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran Flexes Its Muscles After the Kurdish Referendum
Given its recent military movements and high-level contacts with Turkey and Baghdad, Iran may be looking to exact an intolerable cost on the KRG.
Oct 10, 2017
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran's New Ballistic Missile May Have North Korean ICBM Links
The recent reveal indicates strong technical cooperation with Pyongyang, raising concerns that Iran might be on the path to developing a nuclear-capable ICBM down the road.
Sep 27, 2017
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran's Military Options Against Kurdish Independence
Tehran has several means of putting military and economic pressure on the Iraqi Kurds following the independence referendum, but taking action on its recent warnings could widen Kurdish discontent at home.
Sep 22, 2017
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Murmurs of a Second Cultural Revolution
Gathering IRGC frustrations over liberal domestic trends could eventually prompt dramatic intervention, with troubling regional consequences for the United States and its allies.
Aug 21, 2017
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran's National Army Reorganizes
To meet emerging threats and ensure its continued relevance, the Iranian army is seeking to become a quick-reaction force, but institutional and budgetary constraints could still prevent dramatic change.
Aug 14, 2017
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran's Space Program Emerges from Dormancy
The reported failure of the July 27 launch offers little solace to Western observers, since it likely anticipates future attempts as well as the potential for more-advanced technologies.
Aug 1, 2017
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Farzin Nadimi
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