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All Policy Analysis by Soner Cagaptay
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Brief Analysis
Why Erdogan Could Push for Early Elections:
Turkey's Regulatory Bodies in a New Era
Under a coalition government, President Erdogan would likely face a gradual decline in his oft-abused power over agencies that regulate a wide swath of Turkish life, so he might push for early elections to avoid that scenario.
Jul 7, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Mark Bhaskar
Brief Analysis
What Turkey Could Lose and Gain From a Military Operation in Syria
Despite its potential short-term political benefits for the AKP, a ground incursion into northern Syria could pose numerous longer-term threats to Turkey, including renewed Kurdish separatism, economic retaliation by Russia, and armed reprisals by the Assad regime, the PYD, and ISIS.
Jul 2, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Farewell, President Demirel
Among many distinctions, the former leader had a sharp mind and wit, and a passion for U.S.-Turkish ties.
Jun 27, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Reading Turkish Tea Leaves: Speaker's Election Will Offer Clues to Political Future
The very process of choosing a parliamentary speaker will suggest whether a governing coalition will be formed, and including which parties, or whether Turkey will see early elections.
Jun 25, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Turkey's Political Scene Post-Election (Part 3): The AKP-HDP Option
Forming a coalition with the HDP would challenge the AKP's conservative policies at home while improving its ties with Kurds abroad, though it is uncertain whether the armed or political wing of Turkey's Kurdish nationalist movement would benefit most.
Jun 24, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Turkey's Political Scene Post-Election (Part 1): The AKP-CHP Option
A governing alliance bringing together the country's two largest parties could end an era of polarization, but would not be free of challenges.
Jun 22, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Turkey's Political Scene Post-Election (Part 2): The AKP-MHP Option
A coalition with the MHP could result in a socially conservative government that exacerbates rather than resolves the Kurdish problem, potentially impeding U.S.-Turkish efforts against ISIS in Syria.
Jun 22, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Jun 10, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Jun 10, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
What Turkey's Election Results Mean
The outcome has dealt a blow to the AKP's longstanding dominance and Erdogan's goal of implementing a presidential system, with potential implications for the economy, Syria policy, and the Kurdish movement.
Jun 8, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Jun 7, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
The Next Step in Erdogan's Dance with the Kurds
The rise of a Kurdish party could undermine the Turkish president's earlier efforts to court the minority -- and may save democracy... Read the full version of this article on the Wall Street Journal website.
Jun 3, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
In-Depth Reports
Can Erdogan Stay at the Helm?
Turkey's next parliamentary vote is set for June 7, and if predictions hold, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) will continue a run of dominance that began in 2002. Important issues remain, nonetheless. If the Kurdish nationalist Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) crosses the 10-percent electoral threshold necessary for parliamentary
May 26, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Are Muslims Islamists?
Conflating Islam with Islamism has sparked a dangerous discourse in which the majority of Muslims, who are not Islamist, bear the brunt.
May 18, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
An Alevi Tide Headed for Turkey's Parliament
The unprecedented influx of Alevi deputies could form a significant anti-AKP bloc in the next legislature, but this development could also hurt the opposition CHP if Alevi deputies act in a sectarian manner.
May 6, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Iran Won't Give Up on Its Revolution
Given Iran's hegemonic history under the Safavids, the Shah, and the mullahs alike, Washington should not expect the regime to compromise its principles any time soon.
Apr 26, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
James Jeffrey
Mehdi Khalaji
Brief Analysis
Apr 24, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Regional Dimensions of the Syria Train-and-Equip Program
Augmenting the planned force could help address intensifying threats posed by ISIS, along with Iran-backed militias and the Assad regime.
Apr 10, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Andrew J. Tabler
Articles & Testimony
Those Crazy Christians
As the West struggles to navigate Islam's major sectarian cleavage, it can learn from the Ottoman Empire's historical experience with Protestant-Catholic wars.
Apr 9, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
The Fragile Thaw in U.S.-Turkish Relations
If Ankara and Washington can manage the complications surrounding various domestic and foreign issues, particularly in Syria, then the coming months hold promise for reviving the bilateral relationship.
Apr 7, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
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