All Policy Analysis by Soner Cagaptay

More than two months have passed since Turkey's June 7 elections, in which the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost a parliamentary majority it had held since 2002. Given the AKP's inability to form a governing coalition, a new vote will likely be called for later this year. Until

Despite the broken ceasefire, leaders on both sides have political reasons to limit the violence, with Ocalan seeking to reassert his authority over the Kurdish nationalist movement and the AKP looking for a bump in the polls ahead of early elections.

Erdogan seems intent on forcing early elections by goading the PKK into further violence, but the liberal-Kurdish HDP could trump that plan by remaining committed to peace.

Under a coalition government, President Erdogan would likely face a gradual decline in his oft-abused power over agencies that regulate a wide swath of Turkish life, so he might push for early elections to avoid that scenario.

Despite its potential short-term political benefits for the AKP, a ground incursion into northern Syria could pose numerous longer-term threats to Turkey, including renewed Kurdish separatism, economic retaliation by Russia, and armed reprisals by the Assad regime, the PYD, and ISIS.

Among many distinctions, the former leader had a sharp mind and wit, and a passion for U.S.-Turkish ties.

The very process of choosing a parliamentary speaker will suggest whether a governing coalition will be formed, and including which parties, or whether Turkey will see early elections.

Forming a coalition with the HDP would challenge the AKP's conservative policies at home while improving its ties with Kurds abroad, though it is uncertain whether the armed or political wing of Turkey's Kurdish nationalist movement would benefit most.

A governing alliance bringing together the country's two largest parties could end an era of polarization, but would not be free of challenges.

A coalition with the MHP could result in a socially conservative government that exacerbates rather than resolves the Kurdish problem, potentially impeding U.S.-Turkish efforts against ISIS in Syria.

The outcome has dealt a blow to the AKP's longstanding dominance and Erdogan's goal of implementing a presidential system, with potential implications for the economy, Syria policy, and the Kurdish movement.

The rise of a Kurdish party could undermine the Turkish president's earlier efforts to court the minority -- and may save democracy... Read the full version of this article on the Wall Street Journal website.

Turkey's next parliamentary vote is set for June 7, and if predictions hold, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) will continue a run of dominance that began in 2002. Important issues remain, nonetheless. If the Kurdish nationalist Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) crosses the 10-percent electoral threshold necessary for parliamentary

Conflating Islam with Islamism has sparked a dangerous discourse in which the majority of Muslims, who are not Islamist, bear the brunt.