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All Policy Analysis by Soner Cagaptay
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Brief Analysis
Jul 15, 2016
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Will Turkey and Russia Make Up?
On June 27th, the Kremlin announced that Turkey had apologized to Moscow for downing a Russian jet, which had violated Turkish airspace while flying over Syria in November 2015. The following day, Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had expressed his regrets to Russian President
Jul 13, 2016
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Soner Cagaptay
Video
'Islamist' or 'Islamic'? The Difference is Huge.
"Islamist" and "Islamic" may sound similar but the difference between them is huge -- and carries profound policy implications.
Jul 11, 2016
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Muslims vs. Islamists
Islamism is not a form of the Muslim faith or an expression of Muslim piety; it is, rather, a political ideology that strives to derive legitimacy from Islam.
Jul 8, 2016
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Will the PKK and the Islamic State Bring Turkey and Russia Closer Together?
If Ankara wants to intervene against the Islamic State in Syria, block Kurdish advances, and defeat the PKK at home, it may decide to do whatever is necessary to placate Moscow, perhaps even cutting off support for certain anti-Assad rebel groups.
Jul 7, 2016
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Andrew J. Tabler
Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Why the Islamic State Targets Muslim Countries Like Turkey
In addition to ideological concerns, the group can't afford to lose access to Syria's northern border, so it has responded to Turkish-backed rebel offensives there with multiple terrorist attacks.
Jul 6, 2016
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Turkey at a Crossroads
The following is an excerpt from the IEMed Mediterranean Yearbook 2016. Download the PDF to read Dr. Cagaptay's full contribution. Whether or not Turkey will be able to overcome the multipronged terror threat, social polarization, and political instability will all depend on President Erdogan and his agenda. Erdogan needs to
Jul 1, 2016
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Soner Cagaptay
Cem Yolbulan
Tuesday Changed Everything
A discussion of how the Istanbul airport attack will affect Turkey's tourism sector, its war footing against ISIS, its domestic political climate, and other key factors.
Jun 30, 2016
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Jun 29, 2016
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Turkey's Istanbul Attack Vengeance Will Be Like 'Rain From Hell'
ISIS may be trying to sow domestic suspicion by not claiming responsibility for the airport attack, but the incident could still spur Turkey into full-scale war against the group.
Jun 29, 2016
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Turkey's Regional Charm Offensive: Motives and Prospects
After years of foreign policy setbacks, Ankara is trying to mend fences with Israel, Egypt, Iran, and Russia, and the potential implications for the United States are mostly beneficial -- assuming the Turks can actually pull it off.
Jun 27, 2016
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Soner Cagaptay
James Jeffrey
Brief Analysis
Jun 23, 2016
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Where Does Erdogan Want to Take Turkey?
The leader's distorted view of the Ottoman past may dictate whether the country further embraces Islamization.
Jun 15, 2016
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Jun 14, 2016
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Assessing the New AKP Cabinet
Turkey's incoming government reflects the regionalization of political power, outsize influence from religious schools, and the sidelining of Kurds and women, as well as pointing to the emergence of an exclusive governing-party system.
May 31, 2016
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Soner Cagaptay
Cem Yolbulan
Brief Analysis
The PKK Could Spark Turkish-Russian Military Escalation
Russia and Syria's dormant ties with the group have been reawakened by the civil war, raising the prospect of dangerous weapons proliferation and potential escalation into direct conflict with Turkey.
May 25, 2016
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Andrew J. Tabler
Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Erdogan's Nationalist Path to a Full Presidential System
By further hardening his approach toward Kurdish nationalism at home and in Syria, Erdogan hopes to woo Turkish ultranationalists and legally enshrine his executive power, but his efforts could clash with U.S. policy on the war next door.
May 24, 2016
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
May 19, 2016
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Turkey's King: Erdogan After Davutoglu
If the president continues down his path of personalizing power and hollowing out political and civil institutions, he will endanger the country's longstanding democratic makeup.
May 8, 2016
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Why Turkey Is Unlikely to Alter Its Syria Policy in Wake of Prime Minister's Exit
Davutoglu's departure probably won't change President Erdogan's perception that Turkey has the moral high ground by supporting Sunni rebels in Syria against the Assad regime.
May 6, 2016
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Soner Cagaptay
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