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All Policy Analysis by Simon Henderson
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Articles & Testimony
Gulf Leaders: "Welcome Back Donald, It’s Time to Get Down to Business"
Many leaders seem eager for the return of a U.S. administration that has shown a predilection for encouraging big business ties—though the ten weeks before Inauguration Day will be fraught with risks of new or escalated regional crises.
Nov 7, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Book Review: “War” by Bob Woodward
The veteran journalist dishes on the Jordanian king’s “man cave,” Biden’s pique at both Netanyahu and Abbas, and Harris’s public versus private diplomatic style.
Oct 21, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Why Israel Should Focus on Iranian Military and Security Targets, Not Oil Infrastructure
Despite significant vulnerabilities, the redundancies in Iran’s energy production would limit the effects of any strike, while the consequences for Israeli, Gulf, and global energy markets could be significant.
Oct 11, 2024
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Farzin Nadimi
Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Saudi Arabia Signals Oil Policy Shift
The kingdom anticipates and accepts lower oil prices, according to a news report, but the impact on other producers could be comparatively damaging.
Sep 27, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
MbZ Visits Washington: Meeting Agendas and Regional Implications
The Emirati leader will likely focus on the future of bilateral economic and technological integration, but discussions will also cover sensitive matters such as great-power concerns over China and Russia, regional nuclear proliferation, and a potential role for his country in postwar Gaza.
Sep 20, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Elizabeth Dent
Brief Analysis
Middle East Developments Overshadow the IAEA Conference
Iranian missiles for Russia, Houthi attacks on Israel, and North Korea’s surprise display of centrifuges have quickly changed the atmosphere of the nuclear agency’s annual meeting.
Sep 17, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
East Med Politics May Further Delay Cyprus Gas
The island has objected to Chevron’s export proposals with Egypt and might look for other partners.
Sep 5, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Saudi Arabia Increases Its Cooperation with World’s Nuclear Watchdog
The small but significant step could facilitate U.S. technology transfers to the kingdom, said to be a key element in any potential Israeli-Saudi normalization deal—but proliferation concerns persist.
Aug 8, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Israel Plans to Hike Gas Output Despite Hezbollah Threats
The deal could eventually boost supplies to Egypt, though Hezbollah’s robust missile arsenal and public threats against East Mediterranean energy targets may dampen broader regional investment in the sector.
Jul 1, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Energy Watchdog Predicts Big Oil Surplus by 2030
Implied lower prices would weaken economic forecasts for major Middle East oil producers.
Jun 14, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
IAEA Censure Risks Iranian Escalation
Tehran has a history of stepping up its nuclear violations after public rebukes; in the current environment, such escalation could have regional proliferation implications.
Jun 10, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
A Kuwaiti Reset?
The new emir’s suspension of parliament, followed by the appointment of a prime minister and crown prince, suggests a different direction for the oil-rich Gulf state.
Jun 7, 2024
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Simon Henderson
David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Nuclear Agency Chief Visits Iran: Expectations and Next Steps
Given the latest uptick in hostilities between Iran and Israel and their reported threats against nuclear facilities, the visit will likely emphasize diplomacy.
May 3, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Nuclear Gloss to Pakistan’s Diplomacy with Iran and Saudi Arabia
Multiple high-level visits suggest economic desperation mixed with strategic—and possibly nuclear—opportunism.
Apr 25, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Israeli Gas Field Near Lebanon Starts Production
The floating storage vessel anchored above the offshore field could be a tempting target for Hezbollah.
Mar 4, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Video
Brief Analysis
Countering the Houthi Threat to Shipping: Regional Implications and U.S. Policy
Three experts address the thorny strategic questions arising from attacks on global shipping by the Yemen-based group.
Feb 6, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Michael Knights
Noam Raydan
Brief Analysis
Saudi Arabia’s Shock Cut in Planned Oil Expansion
The decision could lead to further spending reductions in the kingdom.
Feb 5, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Why Oil Prices Aren’t Spiking
Prices are set by multiple factors in today’s oil markets, so predicting shocks based on Middle East crises is not a sure bet.
Jan 22, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Will the U.S.-British Strikes Stop the Houthi Attacks on Red Sea Shipping?
The effectiveness of the joint operation is not year clear, but either way it almost certainly wasn’t the concluding episode in Iran’s long-running game of Gulf proxy warfare.
Jan 12, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Iran Increases Output of Near Bomb-Grade Nuclear Material
The IAEA’s new uranium revelations are amplifying concerns about a potential multifront war between Israel and Iran.
Dec 27, 2023
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Simon Henderson
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