All Policy Analysis by Simon Henderson

Whether continued campaigns to hold Riyadh accountable for the crime succeed or not, the crown prince’s economic ‘Vision’ is increasingly likely to slip by another decade or more.

Whatever combination of factors spurred the latest withdrawal of U.S. military equipment from the kingdom, the administration is tempting fate given Iran’s ongoing challenges and shifting tactics in the Gulf.

The combo of local opposition to a high-tech urbanization project and oil market volatility has cast a shadow over Riyadh’s long-term economic plans.

The prospect of a full shale collapse has spurred politicians and oil companies to raise furious questions about the future of U.S. economic and military cooperation with Saudi Arabia.

The market appears to doubt that the deal will suffice, and royal family dynamics could push the oil crisis into further rounds.

The president’s latest statements on OPEC and the possibility of U.S. tariffs are ambiguous, but they suggest his growing exasperation with Moscow and Riyadh.

Both governments have gone “crazy” in the fast-moving price war, but the White House is apparently divided on who to blame and how much to get involved.

This is President Trump’s dilemma: how to safeguard America’s shale-based energy independence without making apparent concessions to Moscow.

The latest crackdown appears to have targeted senior defense and interior officials, spurring speculation that they are linked to previously detained princes rumored to be plotting a coup.

The duration and effects of the showdown may come down to price fluctuations and budgetary requirements in Moscow and Riyadh, but the U.S. shale industry will likely suffer either way.

Reports of royal arrests, a possible coup plot, and a brewing oil price war suggest that the kingdom is facing another period of considerable political tension.

U.S. officials have ample grounds to reinvigorate diplomatic pressure after the world’s nuclear watchdog accused Iran of being uncooperative, but they need to focus on the right questions.

Khalid al-Falih’s appointment to a new investment role suggests that the kingdom’s Vision 2030 economic transformation project needs to be reinvigorated.

Bahrain, Oman, and the UAE have evidently decided that good relations with the White House are more important than echoing Palestinian anger or appeasing Iran.

Regional players will likely be testing Muscat in the next few months, so Washington needs to help ensure continuity between reigns.

The incident might convince Khamenei and his advisors that their meddling in the Middle East is jeopardizing the regime’s domestic stability.

Regional and commercial challenges require an evolving business plan.

The Gulf nation of Oman has been ruled by Sultan Qaboos since 1970, when he overthrew his own father. The seventy-nine-year-old leader has enjoyed wide popularity, but he has a history of illness. To ensure national stability and continued progress, his successor will have to enact far-reaching economic reforms, aimed especially at broadening the economy beyond its current oil dependence. At the same time, a new sultan will need to navigate challenges posed by powerful neighbors such as Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.