All Policy Analysis by Simon Henderson

If the $1.1 billion deal goes ahead, it will strengthen Abu Dhabi’s claim to be a player in the East Mediterranean.

A bevy of Israeli security officials will soon visit Washington against a backdrop of Vienna talks, Saudi engagement with Tehran, and continued nuclear moves.

Israel was silent the last time there was a mysterious explosion at Natanz, but this time Iran is not only being embarrassed, it is being humiliated.

With a basic knowledge of uranium enrichment and an interactive spreadsheet, governments and even the public can quickly work out how close Tehran may be to a nuclear weapon.

One obvious remedy involves asking Riyadh to end its production cutback, but any such request could be complicated by the administration’s recent friction with the crown prince.

The new administration seems to regard Khashoggi’s death as merely the best known of the crown prince’s sins, but it is hard to see an alternative successor in the House of Saud.

A rare visit by an Egyptian cabinet official marks a significant upgrade in bilateral energy ties, though questions remain about Palestinian, Gulf, and environmental issues.

The change of administrations and the realities of COVID-era diplomacy may give Gulf leaders a sense that they are being kept at a distance on key issues, including Iran’s nuclear program.

Explosions in Riyadh, uncertainty about the Iran nuclear deal, and a potentially damaging CIA report about Jamal Khashoggi’s murder are among the many factors that could alter the new administration’s calculus.

Major distractions from abroad have not changed the fact that NEOM remains central to the crown prince’s vision for transforming the kingdom, despite its steep political and financial challenges.

Tehran will continue maneuvering to secure a favorable new nuclear deal with the Biden administration, likely using a combination of bluffs and escalation.

The rift’s closure, while quite welcome, won’t produce instant Gulf unity or make the Iran nuclear issue any easier to solve.

The topic of human rights has become a red line for Saudi leaders, who seem to perceive it as a purely domestic matter on which they will not countenance any foreign pressure.

Drastically lowered revenues, changing energy markets, political squabbling, and a new U.S. administration may eventually break the cartel’s cyclical status quo.

Successful diplomacy could enhance Arab normalization with Israel and boost U.S. efforts to counter Iran, but it is unclear if Riyadh wants to bargain now or wait for Joe Biden.

The operation’s professionalism and complexity suggest the involvement of Israeli personnel; either way, an Iranian security clampdown is inevitable.

The reported meeting between the crown prince and Netanyahu will likely shift normalization into the fast lane, but much can happen to slow, stop, or even reverse it.

The virtual G20 meeting in Riyadh will be watched closely for insights on the kingdom’s royal politics at home and its standing abroad.

Headlines about increased stockpiles of enriched uranium are only half the story.

Israel’s normalization agreement with the United Arab Emirates may enable Gulf oil to make up for any break in Azerbaijani supplies, though this option could harm its ties with Baku and Turkey.